NFL News

Week 2 Marks Significant Adjustments to NFL MVP Odds

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Old Faces Go Down, New Faces Emerge, and the NFL MVP Odds Change After Week 2

I know weeks of time are inanimate objects, incapable of conscious thought. Still, in my head, here’s how things went: 

 ME: Writes article saying that Week 1 of the NFL season gave us no changes to the NFL MVP race. 

 WEEK TWO: Reads article. Gets up, turns to Week One and says “hold my beer.” 

 That’s what happens when Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger will miss significant time, Carson Wentz may be without some of his favored targets, and Aaron Rodgers and his coach decide not to be each other’s date to the prom. 

 The lone constant from the first and second weeks of the season is that Patrick Mahomes is still the favorite. After a slow start (by his standards) he torched the Raiders for 443 yards and four TD passes. That’s 821 yards, seven TD, zero INT in two games. Place your bets now because if you wait much longer, you’ll be spending more money for less return. 

After that, things get fun.  

Let’s start with our friends in Wisconsin. Rodgers started wearing a wristband with the plays on it this week. I’m guessing that means that not playing a snap in the preseason didn’t go as well as he thought it would and that he still needs in game experience to pick up Matt LaFleur’s offense. He had a decent game against the Vikings and Green Bay is 2-0, but at the moment, Rodgers is on pace to throw for 3,300 yards and 24 touchdowns. Not exactly MVP numbers. Plus, admitting postgame that in his shouting match with his head coach that “I can’t say we were yelling how much we love each other,” you just have to think this is going to blow up in his face at some point. 

Tom Brady is Tom Brady. Until he decides not to be Tom Brady, he’ll be Tom Brady. But this year’s version of Tom Brady sure is starting to look like ones that won MVP awards a decade ago. More than 600 yards and five TD in two games sans Gronk is impressive. And the Pats aren’t just winning, they’re crushing teams. Now you can say that it’s the Steelers and Dolphins, teams that have averaged surrendering 30.5 and 51 points per game this season respectively, but with the next five weeks consisting of Jets-Bills-Redskins-Giants-Jets before having to face actual NFL defenses in the Browns and Ravens, he can build some serious momentum. Enough to challenge Mahomes? Maybe, maybe not, but it wouldn’t be the worst spend to toss some cash his way. 

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The Rest of the Back Looking to Improve Their NFL MVP Odds

The money is a little iffier on Wentz. He didn’t play badly against Atlanta. He didn’t play well either. He tried to do a little too much with a second-string receiving corps he doesn’t get reps with much in practice. Get him those reps or get DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey back in the lineup, Wentz is still a solid play.  

After two weeks, you start to get an idea of if something is real or a fluke. I’d hold my odds on these two, but definitely put them in the “monitor the situation” category.   

The entire Dallas offseason was “The Cowboys can’t win without Zeke. They need to pay him. When will Jerry open the checkbook?” And all that time Dak Prescott was quiet, played his role, and monitored the situation. Then Elliott gets $15M a year as a running back. And Dak goes out and throws for 674 yards and seven touchdowns in two games. Guess who wants to get paid and is playing like it. Prescott doesn’t have anything to prove. He will get his money. He just wants to make sure it’s a lot. Winning an NFL MVP wouldn’t hurt his cause.   

If there is someone who needs to prove something and is playing like it, its Lamar Jackson. Coming into the league, he was a runner who threw. After two weeks, people are starting to look at him as a quarterback who runs. 596 yards and seven TD in the first two weeks will do that. Is it sustainable? Probably not. But he’s going to turn some heads along the way and if he keeps this up, will get some buzz towards the midseason point. Don’t rush to the window, but enjoy it for what it is. 

Notable for his absence from this list is Jared Goff. He got his contract. All 4 years, $134M of it with $110 in guaranteed money. For it, the Rams are 2-0, but at best, Goff has look meh. Less than 500 yards and one TD a game isn’t exactly a great ROI on 33.5 mil a year. 

Week two, you humbled me. I won’t say the race is boring again.  

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