Rafael Nadal has creeped his way backed into favorite status as he sits two matches away from a 13th French Open title.
Nadal handled unseeded Jannik Sinner in straight sets to reach the semifinals, where he will face Diego Schwartzman on Thursday.
Schwartzman survived a grueling five-set quarterfinal over Dominic Thiem that lasted more than five hours.
He did have a day off between matches, but Schwartzman is the heavy underdog at +450 at DraftKings, which was offering Nadal at -667. The sportsbook was also offering Nadal as the -100 favorite to win the title, with top-ranked Novak Djokovic a slight second favorite at +1600.
Nadal, 34, lost to Schwartzman in three sets at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia preceding the French Open. However, that was his lone loss in 10 meetings against the Argentinian, and Nadal has not dropped a set since arriving at Roland Garros.
Schwartzman is the +1600 long shot to win his first major title this week. The 28-year-old has already advanced further than he ever has in a grand slam event. He is -129 at BetMGM to bow out in straight sets to Nadal, who is also +280 to win in four sets and +775 to prevail in five.
Schwartzman is being offered at +950 for a straight sets win, +1350 to win in four sets and +1300 to win against Nadal in a second consecutive five-set match.
Bet365 has placed the over-under on how many more games Nadal will with than Schwartzman at 7.5, with the over-under on total games played in the match at 31.5. The book also has a match result prop that includes both players winning at least one set: Nadal is listed at 6/4 while Schwartzman is 7/2.
Will the Djoker Reach Another Final?
Djokovic had only lost 25 combined games in cruising through the first four rounds. He dropped the first set against Pablo Carreno Busta in the quarterfinals before rallying to win 4-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4.
His path to a potential finals appearance was made easier when fourth-seeded Daniil Medvedev was bounced in the opening round, but Djokovic will face a significant task in semifinals opponent Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The fifth-seeded Greek star had to rally from two sets down to win his own opening match, but hasn’t dropped a set in four matches leading up to his showdown against Djokovic.
Djokovic is the -334 favorite by BetMGM to beat Tsitsipas (+250). The 22-year-old is in his first French Open semifinal and only the second of his career (2019 Australian Open). He’s +700 to win his first grand slam this week.
Set Betting Odds (BetMGM)
Djokovic in three sets: +140
Djokovic in four sets: +270
Djokovic in five sets: +550
Tsitsipas in three sets: +675
Tsitsipas in four sets: +800
Tsitsipas in five sets: +800
Djokovic is the 1/3 favorite to beat Tsitsipas by Bet365, which has set the over-under of games played at 36.5. The book is offering 11/10 odds on the match lasting three sets in either player’s favor, 7/4 that it will be decided in four sets and 11/4 that it goes the distance.
Bets365 is also offering Djokovic at 6/4 to win the match in more than 35.5 total games, while Tsitsipas is 11/2 to win in over 41.5.
Nadal is the three-time defending French Open winner. The last person not named Nadal to win the men’s title at Roland Garros? Djokovic in 2016, following a pair of runner-up finishes.
He’s chasing his 18th grand slam title overall this week while Nadal is gunning for No. 20, which would tie Roger Federer’s mark.
–Field Level Media
