UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Moraes Betting Preview

It’s no weekends off for the UFC who are hosting another Fight Night in Abu Dhabi this Saturday. It’s the second of three fight nights in-between UFC 253 and 254. Headlining the free event are a pair of Bantamweights fighting for the top contender spot, Marlon Moraes and Cory Sandhagen.

Cory Sandhagen will attempt to get back on his rise up the Bantamweight division. He was on a five-fight winning streak before being stopped in the first round by Aljamain Sterling by submission at UFC 250.

Moraes, the former contender, will try to get his name back in belt conversation after a so-so showing split decision win over Jose Aldo. Before the Aldo fight, Moraes lost a championship fight to Henry Cejudo. In both fights Moraes started very strong and gassed as the fight went on.

Also on the main card, flashy striker Edson Barboza makes his second appearance in the Featherweight division against Makwan Amirkhani. Along with a pair of Heavyweight fights that are unlikely to be decided by the judges.

Here’s some bets I like for this weekend’s event:

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Moraes Betting Pick

Cory Sandhagen over Marlon Moraes -130

I see this fight going two ways: Moraes wins by stoppage or he loses. I really don’t see any other path to victory for Marlon. Cory Sandhagen is an elite striker, he’s unorthodox in a lot of his fighting styles and I think he will cause problems for Moraes if he can escape the early pressure Moraes is expected to bring.

Marlon has serious stamina issues. He’s fought in one 5-round fight and he was TKO’d late in the 3rd round by Henry Cejudo. Marlon was having success in that fight before he gassed. Other than that loss, in the UFC he has three first round wins, and three fights that went to split decision. When he can’t KO his opponent he gets dragged into a very close decision, and I don’t think he wins a decision vs Sandhagen.

Cory is a high volume, high cardio fighter. He averages 6.95 significant strikes per minute and 4.08 absorbed compared to Marlon’s 3.53 significant strikes per minute and 3.69 absorbed. I expect for Sandhagen to control this fight with his high volume and his size advantage. He’s a huge Bantamweight at 5’11″, and will have a noticeable advantage over 5’6” Marlon Moraes.

The most likely way I see Sandhagen winning this is by decision (+175) but I will instead by playing Sandhagen to win any way at -130. I could see Marlon Moraes gassing late in this fight, we’ve never seen him fight in the championship rounds.

I’m also going to be playing Sandhagen to win in round 3 (+1200) round 4 (+1800) and round 5 (+2500).

UFC Fight Night: Heavyweight Fight Betting Pick and Preview

Marcin Tybura over Ben Rothwell +140

I believe a long term winning strategy in betting UFC is fading average Heavyweights that are favoured at the tail end of the career. I have no idea why 38-year old Ben Rothwell is a -170 favourite in this fight.

He has won two straight but they aren’t that impressive taking a closer look. A split decision win over Ovince St. Preux who was debuting as a Heavyweight, and a KO win over Stefan Struve. Rothwell was losing the fight to Struve before being deducted two points for three separate low blows on Struve. Knowing he would lose by decision he finished the hurt Struve late in the second round.

Marcin Tybura has wins over Struve and Arlovski in his career. He also beat some younger prospects this year with decision wins over Maxim Grishin and Sergey Spivak. When he wins he takes his opponent down and grinds him out. I think that’s something we’ll see here and makes me want no part of Ben Rothwell at -170.

UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs. Moraes Betting Preview KO Special

Tom Aspinall to win in round 1 -110

Tom Aspinall has a likely method of victory and that’s a first round KO. His eight pro wins are first round finishes, and his 4/5 of his amateur fights were won in the same fashion.

Only one of these KOs came in the UFC but it was an impressive debut. His opponent Jake Collier weighed in at the max 265lbs for a Heavyweight and still couldn’t take the power of Aspinall.

Aspinall in taking on Alan Baudot, who is making his UFC debut. Baudot has bounced back and forth between Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight in his career and that worries me taking on the 250 pound Aspinall.

Baudot is 8-1 in his career but that record isn’t saying much. His most recent fight is a disqualification win, and a KO win over a winless fighter. Some of the record’s of other fighters Baudot has defeated: 6-11, 0-0, 4-3, 15-9, and 15-22. I’m really not sure of the competition he’s been fighting and I’m not sure if he’s a UFC level fighter.

It’s a weird spot for this fight to be on the main card which makes me think the UFC is trying to show off Tom Aspinall. Give this young, talented prospect an easy KO victory to push him up the Heavyweight ranks. Give me Aspinall by round one finish -110.

–Cam McCann

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Sakai Betting Preview

By: Cameron McCann 

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai Betting Preview

The UFC is back in action this weekend in Vegas at their UFC Apex Centre headlined by Alistair Overeem. The mainstay contender will be taking on Augusto Sakai who is an impressive 15-1-1 with a 4-0 record in the UFC. 

Co-headlining the event are light-heavyweights Ovince St. Preux and Alonzo Menifield. The two were supposed to fight two weeks earlier but OSP tested positive for covid. OSP is returning back to light-heavyweight after losing a split decision in his heavyweight debut.  

Also on the card is the unbeaten heavyweight Alexander Romanov, making his UFC debut against Marcos Rogério de Lima. The 29-year old Romanian has won all of his professional MMA fights by stoppage, with 9 of 10 of the finishes coming in the first round. Of Rogério de Lima’s 24 fights, three of them have been decided by decision so expect some fireworks in that heavyweight bout.  

It’s another event that doesn’t have the draw of a PPV event but that doesn’t there aren’t money making opportunities. 

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai Prop Bets Best Bets

Hunter Azure to win by decision +110 

Azure is coming off a loss in his second UFC fight but he did look good in that fight as he was winning before being KO’d by Brian Kelleher late in the 2nd round. That was Azure’s first loss of his professional career and I expect him to bounce back here.  

He’s taking on Cole Smith who normally fights in bantamweight. Smith was already at a size disadvantage with a 3-inch smaller reach but moving up in weight classes only increases the disadvantage. Cole Smith is an impressive grappler but his striking needs improvement and it’s not on the level of Hunter Azure’s.  

Azure’s last three wins are via decision and I expect him to do the same here. After a KO loss I think he takes this fight a little slower, using his reach and striking advantage to keep Smith at a distance.  

Ovince St. Preux/Alonzo Menifield over 1.5 rounds -139  

The main reason I’m backing the over here is that both fighters have reliable chins. Menifield has never been KO’d and OSP has only lost via KO twice in his 38 career fights. OSP was last KO’d by Jimi Manuwa back in 2016 who is a lethal power puncher.  

St. Preux has survived being KO’d by much higher competition than Alonzo Menifield. OSP has lost by decision to fighters like Jon Jones, Dominick Reyes and Volkan Oezdemir who are all higher level strikers than Alonzo Menifield.  

I do like Menifield in this fight as OSP just tested positive for COVID so who knows what his training was like the past two weeks. OSP also fought at heavyweight back in May so who knows how his quarantine effected his weight cut. I still like this fight to reach the halfway point as OSP has the experience and size advantage.  

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai Betting Pick

Alistair Overeem to win fight -164 

Overeem is one of the most experienced strikers in MMA history and has been a gatekeeper of the heavyweight division for years now. The fighters that have gotten by Overeem are the ones to pack enough punch to put him to sleep. Losing to heavy hands like Rozenstruik, Blaydes, N’Gannou, and Miocic.  

I like Overeem here because I don’t think Augusto Sakai packs that punching power needed to put Overeem away. Sakai has an impressive 4-0 record in the UFC but looking closer at it, two of those wins are via a split decision. Those decision wins came against Andrei Arlovsky and Blagoy Ivanov. It’s no surprise he couldn’t put away Ivanov as he has one of the best chins in the UFC, but Arlovsky is older than Overeem and arguably has a weaker chin.  

This is also Sakai’s first 5-round fight, so it will be interesting to see how prepared the heavyweight’s endurance is. One thing I am sure of is Overeem’s ability to compete for 5 rounds. Overeem is a world class striker and if Sakai barely squeaked by Arlovski and Ivanov, I think Overeem can cause a lot more problems for Sakai. A split decision is unlikely here, I think Overeem uses he superior striking skills and size advantage to defeat Sakai.

Harry’s UFC Vegas 7 Betting Predictions

By: Harry Gagnon 

Harry’s UFC Vegas 7 Betting Predictions

What: UFC Vegas 7  

Where: Las Vegas, Nevada 

When: Saturday, August 22 

Last week was a lot of fun watching the UFC Main Event on Saturday between Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier. It was an excellent fight in Cormier’s “swan song” but it was fun for me and you if you listened to me and put money on Stipe. Stipe was all over Cormier and just continued to pound him and definitely deserved the victory.  

Next week the main event will be Anthony Smith against Aleksandar Rakic and both fighters are evenly matched and will come in weighing right around 205 for their light heavyweight bout. This week the main event is a bantamweight battle between Pedro Munhoz and Frankie “The Answer” Edgar and I’ll give my analysis of who I feel will win later in the article. 

Harry’s Favorite Bets and UFC 7 Betting Predictions

-140 Joe Solecki 9-2 

+120 Austin Hubbard 12-4 

Austin “Thud” Hubbard is just 2-2 in his last four matches. Solecki has won four in a row and has won by TKO or submission in seven of his last nine victories.  

Harry’s UFC 7 Betting Prediction: -140 Solecki 

-145 Mizuki Ihoue 14-5 

+125 Amanda Lemus 7-1-1 

Although Ihoue has only half the wins of Lemus, I will explain why she is the favorite and will win this fight: Ihoue is 6-1 in her last seven matches and her lone loss was a split decision against Virna Jandiroba who just won in the first round in Las Vegas. 

Harry’s UFC 7 Betting Pick: -145 Ihoue 

-1200 Mariya Agapova 9-1 

+750 Shana Dobson 3-4 

Dobson has lost three in a row while seven of Agapova’s nine victories have come by way of TKO or submission. Plus, she appears to be one of those fighters that once she gets a hold of you, things are over; two of her submission victories were the classic rear-naked choke. 

UFC Vegas 7 Pick: -1200 Agapova 

-175 Daniel Rodriguez 12-1 

+155 Takashi Sato 16-3 

D’Rod is 8-0 since 2018 and 10-0 in fights that were finished by a TKO or submission hold. 

Harry’s UFC Betting Prediction: -175 Rodriguez 

Harry’s UFC Vegas 7 Best Bet and UFC Vegas 7 Underdog Bet of the Night

-220 Mike Rodriguez 10-4 

+185 Marcia Prachino 13-4 

Prachino has lost two in a row by first-round TKO. When looking at tale of the tape, Rodriguez has an 8.5 reach advantage, so I expect this to be over early. 

Harry’s UFC Vegas 7 Best Bet: -220 Rodriguez 

HARRY’S UNDERDOG BEST BET 

-125 Alonzo Menifield 9-1  

+105 Ovince Saint Preux 24-14 

Saint Preux has lost three of his last four fights which makes this line look a little shady to me. Saint Preux does have a 7-inch height/reach advantage over Menifield so I’m going for the veteran underdog in this spot. 

UFC Vegas 7 Underdog Bet of the Night: +105 Saint Preux 

UFC Vegas 7 MAIN EVENT Betting Prediction: 

Bantamweight Bout 

-240 Pedro Munhoz 18-4 

+200 Frankie Edgar 22-8-1 

Munhoz has a much better submission percentage and is 13-0 in fights decided by TKO or submission. Frankie “The Answer” Edgar has had no answers of late, losing in three of his last four matches and you can chalk up another L as Munhoz will take care of business early on Saturday night in Sin City. 

Harry’s UFC Vegas 7 Main Event Pick: -240 Munhoz 

Harry’s UFC Best Bets for UFC Vegas 6: Lewis vs. Oleinik

By: Harry Gagnon 

Harry’s UFC Best Bets for UFC Vegas 6: Lewis vs. Oleinik

What: UFC Vegas 6 

Where: Las Vegas, Nevada 

When: Saturday, August 8th 

After being overseas in the Middle East for two weeks, the UFC returned to Las Vegas last week where there were plenty of surprises and fireworks on the card. The card this week is a tune-up for the following week’s main event that represents the return of Daniel Cormier.  

Cormier is a current -120 slight favorite over Stipe Miocic. That fight next week should be a classic affair in Sin City. As far as this week goes, there are numerous fights to jump on and with my insight, we can go the betting window together and cash our winners. 

Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Best Bets

-240 Derrick Lewis 23-7 

+190 Aleksei Oleinik 59-13-1 

Oleinik is a journeyman in this sport… meanwhile Derrick Lewis continues to try and make a name for himself. Oleinik is still a capable fighter and Lewis better not overlook his older opponent on Saturday night. The right play here is to lay the money with Lewis who is 18-4 in his career in fights that were finished by a TKO.  

Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Betting Pick: -240 Lewis 

-120 Omari Akhmedov 20-4-1 

-110 Chris Weidman 14-5 

I like both guys in this match. Akhmedov was 3-0 in 2019 and is 5-0-1 in his last six fights. Everyone knows I value a five or more-inch reach advantage in certain fights and this one has that situation. Weidman has five inches of reach and two more in height over his smaller opponent. My final factor is that Weidman has a better submission average. 

Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Betting Prediction: -110 Weidman 

Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Upset Pick of the Night

-160 Beneil Dariush 18-4 

+130 Scott Holtzman 14-3 

In Dariush’s four losses, he has lost in the first or second round by TKO or submission. So, it pays to attack Dariush early and try to catch him off guard. Holtzman is undefeated at 7-0 in matches decided by TKO or submission, and he is victorious in five of his last six matches.   

Harry’s UFC Upset Pick for UFC Vegas 6: +130 Holtzman 

-160 Wellington Turman 16-3 

+130 Andrew Sanchez 12-5 

Sanchez is a disappointing 2-3 in his last five fights, meanwhile Turman is 11-0 in fights determined by TKO or submission. If you are a total bettor this might be a fight that would favor the over. Six of Turman’s last eight fights have gone the distance and Sanchez has seven fights in a row that have made it to the third round. 

Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Parlay of the Night: -160 Turman and Over in Rounds 

-275 Nasrat Haqparast 11-3 

+215 Alex Munoz 6-0 

Munoz is 6-0 but has been fighting lesser talent and this will be his toughest task of his young UFC career. Haqparast took care of Joaquin Silva in his last fight about a year ago and will wear Munoz down 

Harry’s UFC Pick: -275 Haqparast 

-140 Laureano Staropoli 9-2 

+110 Tim Means 29-12-1 

Both fighters’ last win was against the same guy (Thiago Alves). Staropoli lost his last fight and Means is more experienced and possesses a four-inch reach advantage which has me leaning towards the underdog here.  

Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Pick: +110 Means 

-200 Gavin Tucker 11-1 

+165 Justin Jaynes 16-4 

Jaynes hasn’t fought since July of last year where he took down Seungwoo Choi. Tucker has an impressive record and I expect him to open up things and finish Jaynes off by midway through the second round 

Harry’s UFC Betting Pick: -200 Tucker 

Harry’s UFC Best Bets and UFC Las Vegas 5 Best Bets

By: Harry Gagnon 

Harry’s UFC Best Bets and UFC Las Vegas 5 Best Bets

What: UFC Las Vegas 5 

Where: Las Vegas, Nevada 

When: August 1, 2020 

The UFC makes its return to Las Vegas, Nevada after they put forth four solid cards in a two-week period in Abu Dhabi. With sports coming back let us not forget what Dana White and the UFC did during this very tough time period.  

The UFC put together a card almost every week and during that time they went to three different continents plus two different time zones when in the United States, so I just want to say thank you UFC. As I mentioned, the UFC is back in “Sin City” and below are my plays for the festivities on Saturday night. 

UFC Las Vegas 5 Fight Picks

Main Event 

-350 Edmen Shahbazyan 11-0 

+285 Derek Brunson 20-7 

Brunson is a bruiser but he is 36 years of age while Shahbazyan, who is just 22, might be too much for the veteran. Brunson is just 4-4 in his last eight fights, plus Shahbazyan is still undefeated with nine of his wins coming by TKO.  

Also, Brunson has lost to Israel Adesanya, Jacare Souza, and Robert Whittaker by TKO in the first round in his last three losses. 

Harry’s UFC Las Vegas 5 Betting Pick: -350 Shahbazyan 

-180 Vicente Luque 18-7-1 

+160 Randy Brown 12-3 

Normally I’d be all over Brown in this spot since he has seven total inches on Luque in combined reach and height, but after what I witnessed in Luque’s last fight versus Niko Price, I swore I’d never go against Luque. Luque beat Price so bad (face was literally destroyed) and fought such a determined fight, I’ll gladly lay the -180 here. 

Harry’s UFC Las Vegas 5 Best Bet: –180 Luque 

-150 Lando Vannata 11-4-2 

+130 Bobby Green 25-10-1 

-300 Over 2.5 Rounds 

+235 Under 2.5 Rounds 

This is going to be a chance to hit on a two-part parlay with the side and the total. Green is only 2-5-1 in his last eight fights and Vannata beat Yancy Medeiros in February of this year by a unanimous decision.  

In terms of the total the over seems like a lock in this situation. If you combine these two fighters last 17 fights, fifteen of them have gone the distance. 

Harry’s UFC Las Vegas 5 Parlay: -150 Vannata and -300 Over 2.5 Rounds 

-220 Markus Perez 12-3 

+185 Eric Spicely 12-6 

The Brazilian is the way to go in this one, considering Spicely is just 4-6 in his last ten fights. 

-220 Perez 

-210 Kevin Holland 17-5 

+180 Trevin Giles 12-2 

I love this kid Holland and he has inches on Giles. Holland has three inches of height and a whopping seven inches in reach advantage on Giles. Holland won in his last match in May in just 39 seconds over Anthony Hernandez while Giles has also lost two of his last three fights. 

Harry’s UFC Las Vegas 5 Pick: -210 Holland 

Harry’s UFC Las Vegas 5 Upset of the Night

Upset of the Night 

Over the last two weeks my Upset of the Night play has come in with flying colors whether those colors were to be violet, burnt orange, sky blue, whatever, the +240 and +280 have hit and that’s the bottom line.  

-250 Ray Borg 13-5 

+200 Joseph Maness 11-1 

Maness won his last match at the end of January in 1:39 of the first round. More than half of Maness’s wins have come by either TKO or submission. I’ll take the guy here who has just one loss against Borg who has five and is way too big of a favorite at -250. 

Harry’s UFC Las Vegas 5 Upset of the Night: +200 Maness 

I hope everyone can cash some of my picks as basketball and hockey comeback this weekend. Enjoy the UFC from Las Vegas on Saturday evening. Happy betting!!! 

UFC on ESPN 14 Odds: Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Gustafsson

By: Fasika Zelealem 

UFC on ESPN 14 Odds: Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Gustafsson Betting Prediction

We’ve reached the fourth and final UFC event taking place on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi and what a card it is that is in store for all us fight fans. 

There are a staggering 15 fights scheduled for Saturday night, which is tied for the most ever on any card. In fact, you have to go all the way back to UFC 2 in 1994 to find another card as stocked as this one. In addition to the massively exciting main event involving Robert Whittaker and Darren Till, we also get to witness the return of Alexander Gustafsson. This is an important fight for the giant Swede as he is making his debut at heavyweight after a memorable career at light heavyweight. 

The Mauler announced his retirement in the ring after his loss to Anthony Smith in June of last year but admitted it was an emotional decision to retire and he’s here to stay. 

“It was an emotional moment. Nothing else,” Gustafsson told MMA Fighting on Tuesday during the UFC on ESPN 14 media day. “I was just heartbroken. It was a tough fight. It was in Stockholm. It was against a guy I know I’ve got the tools to beat but I didn’t obviously. 

“It was a tough night and my emotions and thoughts were just chaos in my head.” 

Can the Mauler Bounce Back After a Rocky Road?

Since his loss against Jon Jones in one of the all-time great fights in 2013, Gustafsson has had his shares of ups and downs. A split decision loss to Daniel Cormier in 2015 meant the light heavyweight title had eluded him twice; three times since his second loss to Jon Jones in 2018. 

A move to heavyweight for the Swede stunned fight fans but according to Gustafsson, he feels stronger now than how he felt at light heavyweight. 

“I felt it was the right time for me to move up one weight class,” Gustafsson explained. “Cause I’m pretty heavy, pretty big. I felt really good to step up one weight class and try out the heavyweight division. 

“Then I got the fight with Werdum and this is something that fits me very well and I’m very excited about. I’m just stronger. I’m stronger than I usually was in light heavyweight.” 

How Will the Other UFC Veteran Walk Out the Door?

His opponent, Fabricio Werdum will be making his final walk to the octagon as a UFC athlete as he announced he’ll be leaving the company after the fight.  

The former UFC heavyweight champion and all-around MMA great has had an impressive career in the UFC, notching wins against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Mark Hunt, and Cain Velasquez, the latter who he submitted for the UFC gold.  

Werdum announced he will explore his options with other promotions after his fight with Gustafsson. 

I’m thankful to the UFC for all these years. It’s practically where I made my career. I’ve always wanted to join the UFC and they gave me that opportunity twice. I was fired and asked to come back because I kept bothering them about it. But the cycle is over. It was a good cycle so far. Now I want to move on with my career, I want to do it my way. Maybe I’ll fight for a different company, I’ve fought for many of them, I want to have choices.” 

UFC on ESPN 14 Odds: Werdum vs. Gustafsson Betting Prediction

Despite Gustafsson being on a two-fight losing streak with his last bout occurring over a year ago, he enters the fight as the favorite with odds of -335. Compar that to Werdum’s odds of +260, as he is on his own two-fight losing streak, most recently losing to Aleksei Oleinik in May. 

Two of Gustafsson’s last three victories came by KO/TKO with DraftKings Sportsbooks placing odds of +105 of the Swede winning by knockout, submission, or DQ, while Werdum’s odds of winning by the same method at +405. 

I think Gustafsson’s return ends in victory by knockout while sadly it means Werdum’s departure ends in failure. 

UFC on ESPN 14 Odds: Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till

By: Fasika Zelealem 

UFC on ESPN 14 Odds: Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till Betting Prediction

We’ve reached the fourth and final UFC event taking place on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi and what a card it is that is in store for all us fight fans. 

There are a staggering 15 fights scheduled for Saturday night, the most ever for a UFC event (tied with UFC 2 back in 1994). While the overall card may not be as exciting as UFC 251, the main event is just as entertaining as we see former UFC Middleweight Champion Robert Whittaker take on the No. 5 ranked middleweight Darren Till in what seems to be an unofficial title eliminator. 

This is Whittaker’s first bout since losing his title to Israel Adesanya last October and after various injury and personal issues, The Reaper is aiming to get his title back. 

Initially, Whittaker was scheduled to make his comeback at UFC 248 to face Jared Cannonier, the number three ranked middleweight but later pulled out due to personal reasons.  

“The Robert Whittaker (fans are) going to get is a happier one — a much happier one,” Whittaker said in a chat with Bleacher Report. “I’m doing everything I’m doing for me and my family. One, because I enjoy it. And two, cause it’s how I provide for my family. (I’m) very ready to go.” 

“I’d been mulling (a break), but again, the whole time it was like, ‘it’s not this, it’s not me, it’ll go away,’” Whittaker continued. “So, after the Adesanya fight, and I was no longer the champ, there were no longer the same stresses, the same pressures to do things, so I was like, ‘I’m going to take some time out.’ It was uncertain. Uncertain is a good word. It was very uncertain. I didn’t know where I was going to go or what I was going to do.” 

A King Kong-Esque Fight to Wrap up Fight Island 

He’s set for an instant return to title fights should he defeat Darren “The Gorilla” Till. 

The Liverpool native last fought in November when he defeated Kelvin Gastelum in his middleweight debut. A win against Gastelum and Whittaker is more than enough for Till to stake a claim as the next man up for Adesanya’s title despite just two fights in the division. 

Till is one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC but it’s not a title he wants or craves. Till is well aware of the long-term effects that fighting possesses and sees his defensive approach to his fights as the best strategy to walk away from the game with all his faculties. 

“One big thing I’ve always known throughout my career, the wars take the toll on you, and whoever you are, you can see them taking the toll,” Till told MMA Fighting during the UFC on ESPN 14 media day. 

“No disrespect, but when you look at guys like Justin Gaethje and I look at Max Holloway now, and sometimes I seem glimpses of them slurring a little bit cause of the wars they’ve been in. All respect to the wars, but it ain’t a smart choice when you’re fighting.” 

Whittaker vs. Till Betting Prediction

Whittaker was on a nine-fight win streak before his loss to Adesanya and he enters Saturday’s bout as the favorite with odds of -130, compared to Till’s odds of +107. 

Whittaker is also a very slight favorite to win by knockout, submission, or DQ at +215, compared to Till’s odds of +220 to win by the same method. 

Only two of Whittaker’s last six victories were won by stoppage (he did face Yoel Romero twice) while Till has only two stoppage victories in his UFC career and none at middleweight. 

I have Whittaker winning by decision and facing Adesanya in an epic rematch preferably back in Australia. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Best Bets

By: Harry Gagnon 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Best Bets 

What: UFC Fight Island 4 

Where: Yas Island  

Abu Dhabi, UAE 

When: Saturday, July 25th 

This will be the last installment of the UFC in the Middle East before they return to Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the fourth and final card in a wonderful two-week period. Last Saturday, we gave out some terrific and easy winners (and have done so throughout the Fight island run) so remember that as we wrap up our fourth card from the United Arb Emirates in 14 days.  

UFC Fight Island 4
Player
Boser, Tanner
Pessoa, Raphael
Collier, Jake
Aspinall, Tom
Correia, Bethe
Kianzad, Pannie
Dalby, Nicolas
Ronson, Jesse
Emeev, Ramazan
Stolze, Niklas
Grundy, Mike
Evloev, Movsar
Trinaldo, Francisco
Herbert, Jai
Wood, Nathaniel
Castaneda, John
Chimaev, Khamzat
McKee, Rhys
Craig, Paul
Antigulov, Gadzhimurad
Esparza, Carla
Rodriguez, Marina
Oliveira, Alex
Sobotta, Peter
Werdum, Fabrício
Gustafsson, Alexander
Rua, Mauricio 'Shogun'
Nogueira, Antônio Rogério
Whittaker, Robert
Till, Darren
-250 BET -250 BET -270 BET -278 BET -260 BET -270 BET -278 BET -278 BET -240 BET
+200 BET +200 BET +205 BET +215 BET +215 BET +210 BET +215 BET +215 BET +200 BET
+175 BET +175 BET +175 BET +175 BET +190 BET +175 BET +175 BET +175 BET +175 BET
-213 BET -213 BET -225 BET -225 BET -230 BET -220 BET -225 BET -225 BET +200 BET
+115 BET +115 BET +115 BET +108 BET +126 BET +120 BET +108 BET +108 BET +125 BET
-139 BET -139 BET -145 BET -134 BET -148 BET -150 BET -134 BET -134 BET -145 BET
-313 BET -313 BET -250 BET -265 BET -290 BET -275 BET -265 BET -265 BET -250 BET
+250 BET +250 BET +190 BET +205 BET +235 BET +215 BET +205 BET +205 BET +210 BET
-385 BET -385 BET -400 BET -375 BET -390 BET -430 BET -375 BET -375 BET -380 BET
+300 BET +300 BET +290 BET +275 BET +310 BET +315 BET +275 BET +275 BET +310 BET
+155 BET +155 BET +165 BET +170 BET +176 BET +155 BET +170 BET +170 BET +180 BET
-189 BET -189 BET -210 BET -215 BET -210 BET -195 BET -215 BET -215 BET -210 BET
-162 BET -162 BET -193 BET -177 BET -174 BET -170 BET -177 BET -177 BET -160 BET
+135 BET +135 BET +145 BET +140 BET +146 BET +135 BET +140 BET +140 BET +140 BET
-455 BET -455 BET -475 BET -455 BET -450 BET -495 BET -455 BET -455 BET -440 BET
+320 BET +320 BET +340 BET +320 BET +350 BET +355 BET +320 BET +320 BET +350 BET
-1112 BET -1112 BET -1110 BET -1000 BET -1100 BET -1300 BET -1000 BET -1000 BET -1100 BET
+700 BET +700 BET +600 BET +600 BET +700 BET +700 BET +600 BET +600 BET +700 BET
BET BET -125 BET -134 BET -108 BET -135 BET -134 BET -134 BET -1120 BET
BET BET +100 BET +110 BET -108 BET +110 BET +110 BET +110 BET +100 BET
+140 BET +140 BET +140 BET +134 BET +134 BET +145 BET +134 BET +134 BET +155 BET
-170 BET -170 BET -175 BET -165 BET -158 BET -180 BET -165 BET -165 BET -175 BET
-176 BET -176 BET -180 BET -177 BET -178 BET -175 BET -177 BET -177 BET -170 BET
+145 BET +145 BET +145 BET +140 BET +150 BET +140 BET +140 BET +140 BET +150 BET
+275 BET +275 BET +260 BET +275 BET +270 BET +275 BET +275 BET +275 BET +285 BET
-358 BET -358 BET -350 BET -360 BET -335 BET -370 BET -360 BET -360 BET +350 BET
-193 BET -193 BET -195 BET -200 BET -198 BET -190 BET -200 BET -200 BET -190 BET
+160 BET +160 BET +155 BET +155 BET +160 BET +150 BET +155 BET +155 BET +170 BET
-115 BET -115 BET -120 BET -120 BET -120 BET -120 BET -120 BET -120 BET -120 BET
-106 BET -106 BET -105 BET -105 BET +102 BET -105 BET -105 BET -105 BET +100 BET

Let me just recap; my underdog play of the night was Joel Alvarez at +280, and he stunned Joe Duffy in the first round with a guillotine choke submission victory. Also, I gave out an easy winner with Grant Dawson who delivered two takedowns and 136 strikes in three rounds. Finally in the main event, winning money could not have been easier when Daiveson Figueiredo went to 19-1 with a first round submission win (rear naked choke) over Joseph Benavidez.  

This wasn’t much of a rematch as Figueiredo outpunched his opponent in the head 31 times to eight. I will do my best to make this a pleasurable betting experience with more solid analysis and picks for the final card at “Fight Island.” 

UFC  

UFC Fight Island 4 Till vs. Whittaker Best Bet

-110 Darren Till 18-2-1 

-120 Robert Whittaker 21-5 

Till has fought some excellent competition of late, including beating Kelvin Gastelum by a split decision back in November of ’19. However, in his two previous fights he lost to Jorge Masvidal and Tyron Woodley. “The Reaper” Whittaker has won nine of his last ten fights and his only loss was to Israel Adesanya, which is understandable. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Bet: -120 Whittaker 

-110 Bethe Correia 11-4-1 

-120 Pannie Kianzad 13-5 

Correia is just 2-4-1 in her last seven matches. The Swede, “Banzai” Kianzad, is the play here as she has four total inches on her opponent and is 10-2 in decisions in her career. Correia is in her fights to the end (six straight and 13 of 16 have made it to the 3rd round) but lately she has come up short and will again on Saturday night. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Betting Prediction: -120 Kianzad 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Underdog Bet of the Night

-310 Alexander Gustafsson 18-5 

+240 Fabricio Werdum 23-9-1 

That is a heavy price to lay on Gustafsson considering he has lost five of his last eight matchups. Werdum is 9-4 in his last 13 fights, which includes two wins over Travis Browne. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Underdog Pick of the Night: +240 Werdum 

-175 Alex Oliveira 20-8-1 

+145 Peter Sobotta 17-6-1 

Here is another underdog play that makes a lot of sense. Oliveira is just 1-3 in his last four matches and both of these fighters have a common opponent. They have both fought Nicolas Dalby who just so happens to be fighting on Saturday as well. Sobotta took care of Dalby. Meanwhile, Oliveira lost to Dalby. I’m thinking that Las Vegas has the wrong guy favored here. 

Harry’s Backup UFC Fight Island 4 Underdog Bet of the Night: +145 Sobotta 

-210 Tom Aspinall 7-2 

+170 Jack Collier 11-4 

Collier is just 2-2 in his last four fights and Aspinall has won all of his fights in the first round.  

Harry’s UFC Betting Prediction: -210 Aspinall 

-275 Nicolas Dalby 18-3-1 

+215 Jesse Ronson 20-10 

Ronson has lost two matches in a row and Dalby in 4-0-1 (including a win over Oliveira) after suffering three straight losses. Laying -275 is a bit steep, but I like the direction Dalby is going of late. 

Harry’s Best Bet at UFC Fight Island 4: -275 Dalby 

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Harry’s Betting Picks for UFC Fight Island 4

-120 Gadzhimurad Antigulov 20-6 

-110 Paul Craig 12-4-1 

Antigulov has lost two fights in a row and when it comes to height and reach, Craig has a dominating 11 total inches over his opponent. 

Harry’s UFC Betting Pick: -110 Craig 

-155 Marina Rodriguez 12-0-2 

+125 Carla Esparza 17-6 

Rodriguez is still undefeated and is five inches taller than the 5’1 Esparza. 

Harry’s Betting Move: -155 Rodriguez 

-230 Tanner Boser 18-6-1 

+185 Raphael Pessoa 10-1 

The Brazilian Pessoa has 30 pounds and a three-inch reach advantage over the -230 favorite. In six of Pessoa’s victories he has won all six via TKO. Meanwhile, Boser is an average 6-4-1 in his last 11 matches. Take the plus money here. 

Harry’s Pick to Win at UFC Fight Island 4: +185 Pessoa 

Those are my plays for the final card in Abu Dhabi. Fighting will return to the United States on August 1st in Las Vegas. Enjoy a great weekend watching and winning on the UFC. Happy betting!!! 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Betting Picks

By: Harry Gagnon 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Betting Picks

What: Fight Island 3 

Where: Abu Dhabi, UAE 

When: Saturday, June 18 

Well here we go again with a third card out of four from “Fight Island” in the United Arab Emirates on Saturday night. On Wednesday, the UFC and Dana White put out another excellent card with upset wins by Mounir Lazzez, Lerone Murphy, and Liana Jojua. Wednesday’s card also had some favorites just dominate in their fights. 

 

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I was wrong (I can admit it when I am) about Chris Fishgold who was never in his fight against Jared Gordon. No one was better than Wales native Jack Shore who won by submission and stayed undefeated (13-0). I produced plenty of winners while the fighting has been in Abu Dhabi and I will do my best to continue to put extra money in your pocket this weekend. 

Harry’s Fight Island 3 Main Event Betting Prediction

-200 Deiveson Figueiredo 18-1 

+140 Joseph Benavidez 28-6 

This is a flyweight rematch from February in which Benavidez lost by TKO in the 2nd round. Figueiredo has taken care of his opponents early and often with 15 wins coming by TKO or submission. Benavidez is only 3-2 in his last fight fights. Figueiredo has a three-inch reach advantage and just matches up well against Benavidez. I expect him to do much of the same as what transpired in fight number one. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Betting Pick: Figueiredo 

-240 Montel Jackson 9-1 

+195 Brett Johns 16-2 

Despite a 16-2 record, Johns has lost two of his last three against better competition. Jackson just might end this one early by using his extra five inches of reach and three inches of height against Johns. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Betting Pick: Jackson 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Upset of the Night Betting Pick

-360 Joe Duffy 16-4 

+280 Joel Alvarez 16-2 

Both fighters come into this one with 16 victories but somehow Duffy is a -360 favorite despite losing three of his last five fights. Alvarez will have an eight-inch combined advantage in height and reach over Duffy. Alvarez has also made quick work of his opponents on a regular basis as only two fights have made it to the third round. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Upset Pick: Alvarez 

Double Digit Underdog Play of the Night 

-120 Ariane Lipski 12-5 

-110 Luana Carolina 6-1 

+2200 Carolina to Win in the 3rd Round 

After a loss in her first UFC fight, Luana Carolina has ripped off six straight victories. Carolina has won three-in-a-row by unanimous decision and Lipski’s last four fights (just 2-2) have been decided by decision. Both women have battled to the end of fights. With that in mind, let’s roll with the fighter with a better record as well as which is the is hotter fight, and to do it by winning late in the fight at +2200. 

Harry’s Double Digit Underdog Play of the Night: Carolina to Win and Carolina to Win in the 3rd Round at +2200 

-250 Grant Dawson 15-1 

+200 Nad Narimani 12-3 

Dawson has the inches nod over And, having two inches more in height and reach. In 14 of Dawson’s wins he has won impressively by TKO or submission. Narimani lost his last fight in March to Mike Grundy by TKO. 

Harry’s Fight Island 3 Pick: Dawson 

-125 Kelvin Gastelum 16-5 

-105 Jack Hermansson 20-5 

Hermansson has a six-inch reach advantage and Gastelum has been in a rut with three losses in his last five opportunities. He is also three inches taller, and I like to go with the statistics. 

Harry’s Pick: Hermansson 

-200 Arman Tsarukyan 14-2 

+165 Davi Ramos 10-3 

Tsarukyan has won 10 of his 14 fights by either TKO or submission. He also has a three-inch reach advantage plus Ramos lost in his last fight to I. Makhachev. 

Harry’s Bet: Tsarukyan 

-160 Marc Diakiese 14-3 

+130 Rafael Fiziev 7-1 

Diakiese beat Joe Duffy in the past, and if you look at the card, you’ll see that Duffy just happens to be an almost -400 favorite on this card on Saturday. So by the transitive property, the pick is Diakiese. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Pick: Diakiese 

-145 Sergey Spivak 10-2 

+115 Carlos Felipe 8-0 

After nine straight wins to start his career, Spivak has dropped two of his last three fights. I might be missing something here, but I’m taking the younger undefeated fighter who is getting plus money. 

Harry’s UFC Betting Prediction: Felipe 

That is quite the variety of selections for Saturday night from Abu Dhabi. I split it down the middle with five fabulous favorites and five “any given day’ underdogs. 

Happy betting everyone and stay safe as sports continues to make a comeback. 

Harry’s Wednesday Night UFC Fight Night 172 Betting Picks from Fight Island

By: Harry Gagnon 

Harry’s Wednesday Night UFC Fight Night 172 Betting Picks from Fight Island

What: UFC Fight Night 172 

Where: Yas Island  

Abu Dhabi, UAE 

When: Wednesday, July 15th  

On Saturday it was Abu Dhabi’s turn to host the UFC after cards were held in Jacksonville, Florida and Las Vegas, Nevada. This will be the second installment of four events in a two-week span in the United Arab Emirates. The other two cards will be this Saturday the 18th and then a week later (July 25th). 

Fight of the Night Winner
Player
Carlos Felipe
Serghei Spivac
Arman Tsarukyan
Davi Ramos
Montel Jackson
Brett Johns
Joseph Duffy
Joel Alvarez
Grant Dawson
Nad Narimani
Khadis Ibragimov
Roman Dolidze
Alexandre Pantoja
Askar Askarov
Ariane Lipski
Luana Carolina
Marc Diakiese
Rafael Fiziev
Jack Hermansson
Kelvin Gastelum
Deiveson Figueiredo
Joseph Benavidez
Mike Grundy
Movsar Evloev
Danny Roberts
Nicolas Dalby
Bethe Correia
Pannie Kianzad
Alex Oliveira
Peter Sobotta
Justin Tafa
Raphael Pessoa
Ramazan Emeev
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Jake Collier
Tom Aspinall
Nathaniel Wood
Umar Nurmagomedov
Carla Esparza
Marina Rodriguez
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Mauricio Rua
Alexander Gustafsson
Fabricio Werdum
Darren Till
Robert Whittaker
Jennifer Maia
Viviane Araujo
Derek Brunson
Edmen Shahbazyan
Holly Holm
Irene Aldana
Omari Akhmedov
Chris Weidman
Derrick Lewis
Aleksei Oleinik
Sean O'Malley
Marlon Vera
Frankie Edgar
Pedro Munhoz
Junior Dos Santos
airzinho Rozenstruik
Stipe Miocic
Daniel Cormier
Jon Jones
Francis Ngannou
+125 BET +125 BET +115 BET +125 BET +114 BET +120 BET +125 BET +125 BET
-152 BET -152 BET -145 BET -155 BET -134 BET -150 BET -155 BET -155 BET
-200 BET +-200 BET -210 BET -200 BET -198 BET -255 BET -200 BET +175 BET
+165 BET +165 BET +165 BET +162 BET +160 BET +180 BET +162 BET +162 BET
-223 BET -223 BET -225 BET -225 BET -215 BET -195 BET -225 BET -225 BET
+180 BET +180 BET +175 BET +175 BET +180 BET +155 BET +175 BET +175 BET
-371 BET -371 BET -375 BET -400 BET -370 BET -375 BET -400 BET -400 BET
+290 BET +290 BET +280 BET +295 BET +270 BET +280 BET +295 BET +295 BET
-250 BET -250 BET -260 BET -250 BET -250 BET -240 BET -250 BET -250 BET
+200 BET +200 BET +200 BET +200 BET +205 BET +190 BET +200 BET +200 BET
+150 BET +150 BET +155 BET +150 BET +160 BET +155 BET +150 BET +150 BET
-182 BET -182 BET -195 BET -190 BET -190 BET -195 BET -190 BET -190 BET
-200 BET -200 BET -200 BET -200 BET -200 BET -205 BET -200 BET -200 BET
+165 BET +165 BET +160 BET +160 BET +168 BET +165 BET +160 BET +160 BET
-121 BET -121 BET -200 BET -200 BET -200 BET -205 BET -200 BET -200 BET
+100 BET +100 BET +160 BET +160 BET +168 BET +165 BET +160 BET +160 BET
-159 BET -159 BET -165 BET -155 BET -170 BET -170 BET -155 BET -155 BET
+130 BET +130 BET +130 BET +125 BET +138 BET +135 BET +125 BET +125 BET
100 BET 100 BET -105 BET +100 BET +100 BET -105 BET +100 BET +100 BET
-121 BET -121 BET -120 BET -125 BET -118 BET +115 BET -125 BET -125 BET
-223 BET -223 BET -225 BET -230 BET -220 BET -210 BET -230 BET -230 BET
+180 BET +180 BET +175 BET +185 BET +184 BET +165 BET +185 BET +185 BET
-250 BET -250 BET BET +185 BET +174 BET +190 BET +185 BET +185 BET
+200 BET +200 BET BET -240 BET -215 BET -240 BET -240 BET -240 BET
BET BET BET BET +114 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET -138 BET BET BET BET
+105 BET +105 BET +105 BET +100 BET -110 BET +100 BET +100 BET +100 BET
-125 BET -125 BET -120 BET -125 BET -110 BET -120 BET -120 BET -120 BET
-182 BET -182 BET BET -117 BET -166 BET -180 BET -177 BET -177 BET
+150 BET +150 BET BET +140 BET +136 BET +145 BET +140 BET +140 BET
+115 BET +115 BET BET +110 BET +114 BET BET +110 BET +110 BET
-139 BET -139 BET BET -137 BET -138 BET BET -137 BET -137 BET
-385 BET -385 BET BET -400 BET -138 BET -380 BET -400 BET -400 BET
+300 BET +300 BET BET +295 BET +114 BET +285 BET +295 BET +295 BET
+175 BET +175 BET BET +175 BET +160 BET +170 BET +175 BET +175 BET
-213 BET -213 BET BET -225 BET -198 BET -215 BET -225 BET -225 BET
BET BET BET BET +130 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET -160 BET BET BET BET
+130 BET +130 BET +125 BET BET +126 BET BET BET BET
-159 BET -159 BET -155 BET BET -154 BET BET BET BET
+160 BET +160 BET +160 BET +150 BET +160 BET +160 BET +150 BET +150 BET
-193 BET -193 BET -200 BET -190 BET -198 BET -200 BET -190 BET -190 BET
-304 BET -304 BET -290 BET -295 BET -300 BET -290 BET -295 BET -295 BET
+240 BET +240 BET +220 BET +225 BET +230 BET +225 BET +225 BET +225 BET
+105 BET +105 BET +105 BET -106 BET +108 BET -105 BET -106 BET -106 BET
-125 BET -125 BET -130 BET -118 BET -130 BET -120 BET -118 BET -118 BET
+105 BET +105 BET BET BET -110 BET BET BET BET
-125 BET -125 BET BET BET -134 BET BET BET BET
+225 BET +225 BET BET BET +205 BET BET BET BET
-278 BET -278 BET BET BET -270 BET BET BET BET
-115 BET -115 BET BET -118 BET -128 BET -115 BET -118 BET -118 BET
-106 BET -106 BET BET -106 BET +104 BET -110 BET -106 BET -106 BET
BET BET BET BET -110 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET -110 BET BET BET BET
-286 BET -286 BET BET BET -300 BET BET BET BET
+230 BET +230 BET BET BET +230 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET -300 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET +245 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET +168 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET -200 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET +122 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET -148 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET -110 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET -110 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET -128 BET BET BET BET
BET BET BET BET +108 BET BET BET BET

This past week on OddsUSA, I gave out solid analysis and selections in going 7-2 against the spread. Below are my ten best plays for Wednesday night in the Middle East. 

Harry’s Betting Predictions for UFC Fight Night 172

Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172’s Upset Bet of the Night 

-320 Calvin Kettar 21-4 

+240 Dan Ige 14-2 

Ige really impressed me in his last fight against Edson Barboza in May, winning by split decision. Ige has also won 12 of his last 13 fights overall after starting his MMA career 2-1. Kettar is only 3-2 in his last five fights and is also 0-1 when he is headlining a card. In November of 2019 he was in that position when he lost to Zabit Magomedsharipov. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172 Upset Pick Special: Ige +240 

-300 Abdul Razak Alhassan 10-1 

+235 Mounir Lazzez 9-1 

-185 Under 1.5 Rounds 

+140 Over 1.5 Rounds 

These two are a combined 19-2 and Lazzez has won seven of his nine fights in either the 1st or 2nd round. All 10 of Ghana native Razak Alhassan’s wins have been by TKO and that includes a 43-second victory over Niko Price. Taking a side here is not worth it to me and, with both brawlers fight history, I’m laying the money with the under. 

Harry’s Move: No Play on the Side/-185 Under 1.5 Rounds 

-115 Taila Santos 15-1 

-115 Molly McCann 10-2 

It has been quite some time since either fighter in this fight has had a match; McCann has not fought since October of ’19 and Santos has been away even longer, last fighting in February of the same year. The only thing that has me leaning a certain way is that Santos has a six-inch reach advantage and that possibly could be the determining factor at the end of this match. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172 Betting Prediction: Santos -115 

-140 Jared Gordon 15-4 

+110 Chris Fishgold 18-3-1 

Jared “The Flash” Gordon hasn’t been that “flashy” of late, losing three of his four fights, all by TKO. Meanwhile, the underdog Fishgold has won eight of his last 10 fights and 13 of his career 18 wins have come by submission. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172 Pick: Fishgold +110 

-165 Diana Belbita 13-5 

+135 Liana Jojua 7-3 

Diana “The Warrior Princess” Belbita has three inches on Jojua and has a six-inch reach advantage on her. Belbita’s last four wins have come by TKO or submission. The under may be a nice play here if you are looking for a total, but I’m sticking with Belbita and, frankly, at -165 it could be a steal. 

Harry’s Not a Sure Thing… But Kinda Sure ThingBelbita (-165) 

Some of Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172 Prop Bets

-175 Ricardo Ramos 14-2 

+145 Lerone Murphy 8-0-1 

-175 Fight to go the distance 

+125 Fight to not go the distance 

In five of the “The Miracle” Murphy’s victories have ended in the first round while in both of Ramos’ losses he has been finished in the first round. Both fighters are excellent, with only two losses combined in 25 fights, so I’m going with this fight to end inside the rounds. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172 Round Pick: +125 Fight to not go the distance 

-120 Tim Elliott 16-11-1 

-110 Ryan Benoit 10-6 

These two don’t have a great combined record and Elliott is a disappointing 6-8 in his last 14 fights. He also was a -180 favorite in his last fight (May of 2020) against youngster Brandon Royval and lost in the second round. Benoit has a two-inch reach advantage and I have no faith in Elliott. 

Harry’s Pick: -110 Benoit 

Harry’s Best Bet of UFC Fight Night 172  

-600 Jack Shore 12-0 

+425 Aaron Phillips 5-3 

Shore comes into this fight undefeated while winning 11 of his 12 fights by TKO or submission. He also has won half of his fights in the first round. Phillips hasn’t had a fight since 2015 and has actually lost three in a row. Shore should be done with Phillips before you can even finish your beverage of choice on Wednesday night. 

Harry’s Best Bet of the Night: Shore -600 

-255 Modestas Bukauskas 10-2 

+205 Andreas Michailidis 12-3 

Bukauskas has a three-inch reach advantage in this fight, plus he has won six in-a-row by either TKO or submission.  

The Pick: Bukauskas -255 

-330 Khamzat Chimaev 6-0 

+250 John Phillips 22-9 

John “The Welsh Wrecking Machine” has been “broken” of late, losing three of his last four fights. Chimaev is undefeated and has won all six fights by either TKO or submission.  

The UFC Bet: Chimaev -330 

I hope everyone enjoys the fights and cashes winning tickets on Wednesday night. I will have another set of winning plays in my article later this week for the third installment of fights from Fight Island. Stay safe and happy betting everyone!!!

UFC 251 Odds: Usman vs. Masvidal Betting Prediction

By: Dane McGuire 

UFC 251 Odds: Usman vs. Masvidal Betting Prediction

Absence makes the heart grow fonder–that saying definitely applies to the UFC action going down on July 11 from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi. The UFC 251 card is stacked with three title fights. Check out our main event breakdown below! 

Main Event: C) Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal (Welterweight Championship)

In our hearts, we want to pick Jorge Masvidal and some of us will still be rooting for him come fight night, but it just feels like this was too short notice of a fight for Masvidal. Still, this fight could depend on his ability to keep things upright and mute the wrestling of Usman. 

Usman has probably watched Masvidal’s five-second knee KO of fellow wrestler Ben Askren countless times, just like the rest of the combat sports world.  

However, as Bleacher Report’s Scott Harris said, “Like many “superfights” this one has “anticlimactic” written all over it. Usman has the wrestling to bring down a tractor-trailer. Masvidal has sharp boxing and amazing clinch skills, but he’s giving up size and pure power to one of the best in the world today.” 

According to UFC Stats, Usman leads almost every category except striking defense and takedown accuracy. Masvidal also leads in submission attempts per 15 minutes but the difference is just 0.2 Usman’s takedown defense is also 100 percent so he shouldn’t get out-wrestled and is 5-0 in his last five bouts. 

Usman is also a switch-stance fighter, so that may be a factor on the feet. This fight could just be a question of if “Marty” takes down Masvidal and smothers him or uses ground and pound over the course of 25 minutes or so.  

Why Masvidal Will Falter Against Usman: UFC 251 Betting Prediction

As Combat Press noted, “Masvidal will not fare well. He will hold the striking advantage, but not by much. Usman has steadily been improving his striking game, which was apparent in his last title defense against Colby Covington.  

Usman is a much more complete mixed martial artist who boasts some of the most exhausting pressure and relentless pace, plus a superb ground game that has been almost impossible to stop in the UFC. The champ enters this fight 11-0 in the UFC and has looked better in every single one of his performances.” 

Usman hasn’t won a fight by finish since 2017 and Masvidal’s average fight time is roughly 3-4 minutes shorter than the champion. Obviously not all of those fights are wins, but the longer the fight goes, the risk could still increase the risk for “The Nigerian Nightmare but we have to go with our heads and not hearts. 

Prediction: C) Kamaru Usman retains via decision

Harry’s UFC 251 Best Bets from Fight Island

By: Harry Gagnon 

Harry’s UFC 251 Best Bets from Fight Island

What: UFC 251 

Where: Yas Island 

Abu Dhabi, UAE 

When: July 11, 2020 

After a week off, the UFC returns with a spectacular card on Saturday for UFC 251 from the United Arab Emirates. The UFC is changing venues again and will have three cards in a two-week span from the Middle East. UFC 251 will be headlined by the fight between “The Nigerian Nightmare” Kamaru Usman (16-1) and 2019’s fighter of the year Jorge Masvidal (3-0 in 2019, including a 5-second victory).  

On Saturday we also have a couple of intriguing rematches on the fight card. In December Alexander Volkanovski took care of Max Holloway for his 21st career victory at UFC 245, and despite being an +175 underdog, Jessica Andrade will try to make it two in a row over Rose Namajunas. Abu Dhabi will mark the third city, and the third different time zone since the start of Coronavirus, and I’m sure it will be the third great venue for exciting UFC action. 

I hope you all have a good time watching the return of the UFC and with some luck hopefully we can capitalize on some edges I discovered and we all can make some money. 

Harry’s Best Bets for UFC 251 Betting Predictions

-310 Kamaru Usman 16-1 

+255 Jorge Masvidal 35-13 

+110 Over 4.5 Rounds 

-140 Under 4.5 Rounds 

Despite being the fighter of the year in 2019, Masvidal was a fill-in for this match and is a large +255 underdog. Usman has won 15 matches in a row, meanwhile Masvidal is only 7-5 in his last 12 fights. As for the total, a shot at the plus money is in play considering all five of Usman’s last five fights have reached the fifth round.  

Harry’s UFC 251 Usman vs. Masvidal Betting Pick: Usman and Over 4.5 Rounds 

-220 Alexander Volkanovski 21-1 

+180 Max Holloway 21-5 

This fight is extremely interesting in different ways. Volkanovski comes into this fight with a 21-1 record and 14 of his wins have come via TKO or submission. Holloway and his five extra inches in height will be seeking revenge after losing to Volkanovski at UFC 245. 

Harry’s UFC 251 Betting Pick: Volkanovski 

-240 Petr Yan 14-1 

+200 Jose Aldo 28-6 

Yan is a star on the rise and a winner of nine straight fights. Aldo has an excellent record but has lost five of his last eight fights. 

Harry’s Betting Pick at UFC 251: Yan 

The Rematch Not to Overlook When Betting UFC 251

-200 Rose Namajunas 9-4 

+175 Jessica Andrade 20-7 

In May of last year, Andrade defeated Namajunas but in the revenge match, the loser of the previous match is a -200 favorite. Namajunas has the advantage in height (four inches) and reach (three inches). 

The UFC 251 Rematch Betting Pick: Namajunas 

-950 Amanda Ribas 9-1 

+625 Paige VanZant 8-4 

VanZant has lost three of her last five fights and has won six of nine times by either TKO or submission. 

Harry’s UFC 251 Pick: Ribas 

-180 Leonardo Santos 17-4-1 

+160 Roman Bogatov 10-0 

-160 Over 2.5 Rounds 

+130 Under 2.5 Rounds 

These two solid fighters have combined for 15 straight wins. Santos is 12-1 in fights decided by TKO or submission, meanwhile, Bagatov is undefeated and has seven wins by TKO or knockout. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander in this spot, I’d say. This may be a spot were the fighters protect themselves and it takes a while to really get started. 

Harry’s Preferred Play at UFC 251: Over 2.5 Rounds 

-165 Martin Day 8-3 

+135 Davey Grant 11-4 

Day has a four-inch reach in this matchup and Grant has lost three of his last five fights (all three loses by submission) and that includes a 59-second loss to Manny Bermudez. 

The UFC 251 Betting Play: Day 

Harry’s UFC 251 Prop Bet of the Day

Namajunas to win between rounds 1-3 +210 

Jessica Andrade 20-7 versus Rose Namajunas 9-4 

As mentioned before, this is a revenge match for Namajunas and she has a combined 7-inches on Andrade in reach and height. I fully expect her to strike and strike early and force Andrade into tough spots. In Namajunas’s nine wins, seven have come by either TKO or submission (6 of them coming by submission). 

By Saturday night’s end the new numbers will be eight fights out of ten. 

Harry’s UFC Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker

By: Harry Gagnon 

Harry’s UFC Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker

What: UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker  
Where: UFC APEX Las Vegas, Nevada 

When: Saturday, June 27th  

You have to give it up to Dana White and the UFC for continuing to not just put together a card every week, but putting together entertaining cards we’ve all enjoyed and, more importantly, can gamble on. Last week had some very difficult fights to predict.  

Roosevelt Roberts was a -250 favorite over journeyman Jim Miller. Not only did Roberts lose in the first round but he had zero offensive attacks before tapping out. Hopefully this week the matches will be easier to figure out and maybe I can make some extra money for everyone out there with my insight and selections. 

Harry’s Underdog Plays for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker

-275 Brendan Allen 

+190 Kyle Daukaus 

Brendan Allen is a great fighter but I’m wondering why he is such a big favorite. Daukaus is a great value play here as he is undefeated at 9-0, having won eight of his nine matches by submission. Those are great stats and while you are getting +190, it’s worth a shot. 

Harry’s Underdog Pick at UFC Fight Night: Daukaus 

-275 Mike Perry 

+190 Mickey Gall 

Perry is only 13-6 and has lost three of his last four matches (one of those loses was to Donald Cerrone in the first round). Gall has a three-inch reach advantage and is four inches taller than Perry. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Night Betting Prediction: Gall 

-135 Jordan Griffin 

+105 Youssef Zalal 

Griffin has lost two of his last three matches (includes losing to Dan Ige). Zalal has a solid 8-2 record and is plus money. 

Harry’s UFC Pick: Zalal 

Harry’s Best Bets on the Undercard for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker

+200 Mara Romero Borella 

-300 Miranda Maverick 

Maverick is 9-2 and Romero Borella has had a tough time of it lately, losing four of her last five fights. Her last loss was to Cortney Casey in the first round and Casey lost last week to go to 9-8 overall so you can see Borella’s level of competion. I expect Maverick to put this away early. 

Harry’s UFC Betting Prediction: Maverick 

-120 Ramiz Brahimaj 

-120 Takashi Sato 

This should be a great fight between Brahimaj (8-2) and Sato (15-3). This fight really is so close its impossible to even have an angle so I am passing on this one 

Harry’s Move: PASS 

-120 Philipe Lins 

-120 Tanner Boser 

Lins has a three-inch reach advantage and has won four of his last five fights by TKO or submission. 

Harry’s UFC Betting Pick: Lins 

-250 Luis Pena 

+180 Khama Worthy 

-115 Over 2.5 Rounds 

-115 Under 2.5 Rounds 

This might be a better fight than most are expecting. Pena is 8-2, is four inches taller and has won three out of his last four bouts. Meanwhile, Worthy has won six fights in a row and I expect both fighters to be ready so I cannot quite choose a fight. However, … I can choose a round. 

Harry’s Best UFC Play: Over 2.5 Rounds 

-200 Maurice Greene 

+140 Gian Villante 

Villante is only 17-11 and Greene has a four-inch advantage in height and reach. 

The Pick: Greene 

Harry’s UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker Betting Prediction 

-200 Dustin Poirier 

+140 Dan Hooker 

Poirier is 9-2-1 in his last 12 fights and that includes taking down Justin Gaethje. Plus, it does not hurt that Poirier was a guest on my Against All Odds with Cousin Sal podcast a little over a month ago. So mayyyyybe I am a bit biased, but also, Poirier is a stud.  

Harry’s UFC Right Night: Poirier vs. Hooker Betting Pick: Poirier  

UFC Fight Night Best Bet of the Night 

-230 Sean Woodson 

+190 Daniel Pineda 

Pineda is a fill in for Kyle Nelson and is just 28-13 lifetime in the UFC. Sean Woodson is undefeated at 7-0 and has an insane nine-inch reach advantage on Pineda. If that was not bad enough, Woodson stands at 6 feet 2 inches tall, which is five inches taller than Pineda. This one ends quickly in Sin City. 

Harry’s Best Bet of the Night: Woodson 

Those are my nine plays for this weekend’s card in Las Vegas. Enjoy the fights everyone, take care of yourself and win some money (with my plays). 

UFC on ESPN 11: Josh Emmett vs. Shane Burgos Odds and Betting Prediction

By: Fasika Zelealem 

UFC on ESPN 11: Josh Emmett vs. Shane Burgos odds and betting prediction

The co-main event for UFC on ESPN 11 is a highly exciting bout between featherweights Josh Emmett (15-2) and Shane Burgos (13-1). This fight hasn’t gotten the publicity it deserves despite the fact both fighters are ranked in the top ten of the featherweight division; a stacked one at that. 

Furthermore, a win for either fighter could land them a top-five opponent, a possibility that is made truer with Frankie Edgar who is ranked seventh in the division decided to drop down to bantamweight to fight Pedro Munhoz on Fight Island. 

Both fighters are on a winning streak with Burgos stringing three wins in a row by way of submission, split decision and TKO over Makwan Amirkhani in his last bout. Emmett has won two in a row against quality opposition in Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic in which he knocked both out and in the former’s case, a walk-off KO put Johnson down in the third round. 

Burgos is 6-1 in the UFC and the challenge of Josh Emmett, who is finding his stride after four years in the company, is a tough test for the 29-year-old. The New York native spoke on the importance of making a statement on Saturday night and how the smaller cage at the UFC Apex could help benefit his performance. 

“I’ve got to go out there and put a stamp on this one. I’ve got to make a statement. As corny and cliché as it sounds, I’ve got to go out there and not just beat Josh Emmett, but I’ve got to beat Josh Emmett. I’ve got to finish him,” Burgos told Cageside Press at Thursday’s UFC on ESPN 11 media day. 

No judges, in other words. Perhaps the smaller cage utilized at the UFC Apex can help facilitate that. “100%. It forces the action,” said Burgos. “I love the small cage. All my career before the UFC was in the small cage. I train in the small cage. Basically, when the referee says go, you’re fighting, because there’s only about ten feet between you and your opponent right off the bat.” 

With the Veteran Emmett Have Enough in the Tank Against Burgos? 

Emmett, who was fighting at lightweight upon his arrival in the UFC in 2016, made his decision to return to featherweight in 2017 and has since beaten Felipe Arantes, knocked out former title challenger Ricardo Lama. However, he has also been on the receiving end of a Jeremy Stephens barrage that gave Emmett his second professional MMA loss. 

The 35-year-old feels he’s cemented his reputation as the hardest-hitting featherweight in the division and will look to finish Burgos on Saturday night. 

“I always said I feel like I’m the hardest hitting puncher in the featherweight division,” Emmett told reporters, including MMA Junkie, during Thursday’s UFC on ESPN 11 virtual media day. 

“This is the fight game,” Emmett said. “I understand all the trash talk and stuff, but that’s not me. I’m going to go in there, I’m going to look to finish the fight, and I’m exciting every time I fight whatever I’m doing. 

UFC on ESPN 11 Odds: Emmett vs. Burgos Betting Prediction

DraftKings sportsbooks has the odds on the fight, and it’s a real close one people. Burgos is listed as the favorite with odds of -143 to win the fight while Emmett comes in as the underdog with odds of +115 to claim the victory. They however possess the same odds of +225 to win by any knockout, submission, or DQ. 

This fight is not going the distance and I have Emmett knocking out Burgos in the second round to rise to seventh in the rankings. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov Betting Predictions

Harry Gagnon 

Harry’s UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov Betting Predictions

What: UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov 

Where: Las Vegas, Nevada 

When: Saturday, June 20 

Despite some sports having issues starting up like Major League Baseball, the UFC just keeps rolling along with what seems to be a decent card every week. Last week I gave out another profitable performance going 6-3 in all of my picks. I was 3-0 in totals and my best play of the night, Marvin Vettori, was an easy winner over Karl Roberson.  

This week there are plenty of exciting matches such as Alexander Volkov (31-7) taking on Curtis Blaydes (13-2). Blaydes has impressive wins over Junior Dos Santos and Alistair Overeem to his credit. Here is my list of plays for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov, and hopefully I can continue to make people money by giving out solid information and fantastic picks. 

Harry’s UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov Best Bet

-360 Curtis Blaydes 

+280 Alexander Volkov 

I mentioned above that Blaydes has some seriously high-quality wins, and he is an up-and-comer, having won seven of his last eight bouts. 

Harry’s Best Bet of UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov: Blaydes 

Harry’s “Fishy Line” of the Week 

-140 Raquel Pennington 

+110 Marion Reneau 

Pennington is a -140 favorite despite having an average 10-9 record and has been a loser in three of her last four fights. This line makes you want to take the underdog Reneau (although she is 3-4-1 in her last eight fights) and that is why you cannot do it; I’ll still lay the price with Pennington. 

Harry’s UFC Betting Prediction: Pennington 

-135 Shane Burgos 

+105 Josh Emmett 

It is hard for me not to jump on the fighter that has a 5.5-inch reach advantage and is five inches taller than his opponent. That scenario fits Burgos here and I’m all over him. 

Harry’s UFC Pick: Burgos 

-120 Gillian Robertson 

-110 Courtney Casey 

Casey was awesome in her last fight against Mara Romero Borella, and forced her to submit in the first round. In this bout, Casey has a couple inches on Robertson and an almost 5-inch reach advantage. 

Harry’s Pick: Casey 

The Rest of Harry’s UFC Betting Predictions for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov

-200 Brianna Van Buren 

+185 Tecia Torres 

Brianna “The Bull” stands at only 5 feet tall but still has a two-inch reach advantage on Torres. Van Buren also has a six-fight winning streak coming into this fight. 

The Pick: Van Buren 

-135 Oskar Piechota 

+105 Marc-Andre Barriault 

Both fighters come into this bout losers of three straight fights. When this happens and there is no fan support for either side, I cannot make a pick here and will choose to pass. 

Harry’s Play: No Play… Hard Pass 

-115 Matt Frevola 

-115 Frank Camacho 

Camacho has struggled of late going just 1-3 in his last four fights. Frevola on the other hand has had a nice start to his career going 8-1-1 in 10 professional bouts. 

Harry’s UFC Bet: Frevola 

-170 Joe Solecki 

+140 Austin Hubbard 

Solecki is 9-2 but I like Hubbard as a +140 underdog. Hubbard comes in hot winning his last four fights, including two by submission. 

Harry’s Pick: Hubbard 

-230 Bobby Cereen  

+185 Clay Guida 

Guida is a UFC journeyman with an immense record of 35-16 and hasn’t fought since early August of last year. He has lost by either submission or TKO in his last six losses. Cereen has three inches on Guida and this could and should be done early. 

Harry’s Pick: Cereen 

-240 Roosevelt Roberts 

+195 Jim Miller 

Roosevelt “The Predator” Roberts is 10-1 with eight of his wins coming by TKO or submission. He also has four inches on Miller and a 2-inch reach advantage. This is another fight I expect to be done early on. 

Harry’s Second-Best Bet of UFC Fight Night: Roberts 

You can catch all these fights on ESPN on Saturday night from the APEX in Las Vegas. Stay safe everyone, and let’s all watch and enjoy another solid card put together by Dana White and the UFC nation. Happy Betting !!!