If you look around the internet, you will find article after article begging people to take the over. It is understandable why so many people hate under bets; it is one of the only bets you can lose well before the game is over. Plus, it preys on the anxieties of bettors as you just hope and pray for defensive stop after defensive stop, but not the type of stops that produce points.
For some bettors, the NFL under bet is a painful, anxiety laden play that is best to stay away from. But some people like that kind of thing. Me? I proudly admit I am one of those rare few who revel in the chaos of the NFL under bet, but I enjoy NFL under bets against teams, not the games themselves.
And, of course, as a purely statistical argument, there is one more reason NFL over and NFL under bets are so popular; half the time, the under works all the time. Here are your best NFL under bets for Week 11.
The Jets Are a Disgrace; Hammer Their NFL Under Every Week
The last time we saw the Jets, they were Jetsing their way to a come-from-in-front-defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots. The Jets lost their Week 9 game, 30-27, in a contest they absolutely should not have lost. The most impressive stat? Those 27 points, which were the most points they had scored in five weeks since their 37-28 loss in Denver.
Those two games account for all games this season in which the Jets have scored 20+ points. In fact, the Jets have failed to score double digits in three of their nine games and have failed to reach 18 points in seven of their nine tilts. And what is the Jets’ NFL under bet at Unibet right now? A beautiful and luscious 17.5 (-114). That’s the good type of under bet that warms you up faster than cider right out of the pot.
Why King Henry’s Offense is the Titans’ Best Defense
Most of the time when people examine possible under bets, they like to look at defense vs. offense. That makes an abundance of sense. If you are trying to bet against one team’s offense, the most important factor would be, “how does this defense stack up against them?” That is usually the most important math when discussing unders.
Then there are games where you bet the under because you know it is going to be a ground control contest and there won’t be enough time to put the points up on the board. The Week 11 game between the Tennessee Titans and the Baltimore Ravens is one of those affairs.
In last year’s Divisional Round game against the Ravens, Derrick Henry ran the ball 30 times for 195 yards while also throwing a touchdown (yup, he dominated). The Ravens had no answers for anything the Titans did: no answers for Henry on the ground, Ryan Tannehill through the air, and no answer for Mike Vrabel’s defense, which forced Lamar Jackson into three turnovers (two interceptions and one fumble).
Will the Ravens Have Enough Time to Score 28 Points?
In this week’s matchup, the sportsbooks have posted a juicy plus line (+102) for the Ravens to score under 27.5. When you look at the playoff game last year (28-12), that is the type of line that should whet your appetite for the NFL under bet.
Even if you are the type of person who does not like looking at past matchups from previous seasons, the tale of the tape still favors the Titans to put the clamps down on the Ravens. All you have to do is go back to last week where the New England Patriots—fresh off allowing 27 points to the Jets—kept the Ravens to just 17 points (granted, in a monsoon).
They did so with a dominant run game that bruised the undermanned Ravens squad for 4.4 yards per rush and that clip was only “low” thanks to numerous quarterback sneaks from Newton who carried it 10 times for 21 yards. All in all, Damien Harris rushed for 5.5 yards a tote and Rex Burkhead collected 5.2 yards a rush.
So, in a season where the Patriots defense has had some issues, they kept the Ravens off the board by smashing them to bits on the ground. The 17 points scored by the Ravens marked the fifth time in nine games where the Ravens failed to hit 28 points.
And the Patriots accomplished that with guys named Harris and Burkhead, not King Henry. As for the Titans, their defense might be the downfall as they have held opponents to 28 points or fewer just four times this year. However, the Ravens will go under not because of the Titans defense, but because of their offense. Book it.