There was going to be a lot on the line this weekend in the SEC Championship game. Not regarding Alabama, of course. Win or lose, they are more than likely going to make the College Football Playoffs. It is just a matter of being the No. 1 seed or the No. 4 seed.
It was Florida that had a lot on the line. With a win and a loss by Clemson/Notre Dame and a win over Alabama, they had an excellent chance of jumping into the playoff picture—but then they lost to LSU last weekend.
Consequently, the stakes will not be as high as they would have been. The odds were really against Florida winning, anyway. Bovada has them listed as 17.5-point underdogs. But with the explosive potential in the Gators’ offense, there is a chance Florida could keep it close.
So, betting on the winner may not be as cut and dry as it might seem—which makes putting money down on one of the many prop bets being offered at Bovada appealing:
If there is one thing fans can count on happening in the SEC title game this year, these two teams will score lots of points. Alabama has been averaging almost 50 points a game this season. Florida has averaged a little over 41.
Alabama’s defense is good, but it is unlikely the Crimson Tide shut down Kyle Trask. At the same time, the Florida defense is not bad, but it is certainly not good enough to shut down or maybe even slow down Mac Jones.
The official total for the game is 74.5, and it would be surprising if the over did not get covered. So, a better question may be just how high a total these teams could cover. It all depends on how well you think both offenses will perform.
Alabama is likely going to be good for their season average, if not more. Florida could exploit Alabama’s secondary and do the same. So, take anything the over on anything over 75 points; anything from 75-80 is probably safe. Anything over 80 is possible, but with an element of risk.
Best Prop Bet: OVER 75 (-105)
#1 Alabama Total Points (O/U)
Over 45.5 (-110)
Under 45.5 (-120)
Alabama has been averaging over 49 points a game this season, and there is little reason to think they can’t hit that mark against Florida this weekend. The Gators’ defense has not been bad this season, but it has not been good enough to slow down the Alabama offense.
If Texas A&M can gain over 500 yards of offense and score 41 points, Alabama can score more than 45.5. Take the over.
Best Prop Bet: OVER 45.5 points (-110)
#7 Florida Total Points (O/U)
Over 28.5 (EVEN)
Under 28.5 (-135)
Florida’s season average of 41.2 points/game makes the over seem like a no-brainer. But when you consider Alabama’s defense has allowed an average of just 16.8, the decision becomes a little more challenging. However, the Alabama defense is not great against the pass (57th), and Kyle Trask is the best quarterback in the nation not named Mac Jones.
Take the over.
Best Prop Bet: OVER 28.5 (EVEN)
‘Bama-Florida Winning Margin
Alabama By 1-6 Points (+600)
Florida By 1-6 Points (+900)
Alabama By 7-12 Points (+550)
Florida By 7-12 Points (+1800)
Alabama By 13-18 Points (+475)
Florida By 13-18 Points (+3000)
Alabama By 19-24 Points (+550)
Florida By 19-24 Points (+5000)
Alabama By 25-30 Points (+650)
Florida By 25-30 Points (+8000)
Alabama By 31-36 Points (+800)
Florida By 31-36 Points (+10000)
Alabama By 37-42 Points (+1400)
Florida By 37-42 Points (+10000)
Alabama By 43 Or More Points (+1000)
Florida By 43 Or More Points (+12500)
The only thing that could be more shocking than Florida’s loss to LSU last weekend would be the blowing out Alabama this weekend. More than likely, the game is going to be a high scoring but close affair with either Alabama or Florida winning by 1-6 points.
But is there a chance Alabama blows out Florida? Eh—yes, but not a great chance. Take Alabama to win by 1-6 points but put a little down on them to win by 13-18 points as well.
Best Prop Bet: Alabama by 1-6 points (+600); Alabama by 13-18 points (+475)
Race To 40 Points
Alabama is the obvious choice for this one, but what if the game ends up being a back and forth affair. If that is the case, then there is an excellent chance Florida is the first to crack 40 points. Now, this wager is not one you want to bet the house on. But with those odds, it could very well be worth it to put a little down on Florida.
Best Prop Bet: Gators +1800