5 NFL Prop Bets To Watch This Weekend

Last weekend saw some ridiculous action around the NFL, including a could-have-should-have-somehow-didn’t win for the Jets and the Steelers lose for the first time.

As we inch closer to the postseason, here are five prop bets we’ve got our eye on this weekend.

Jared Goff

Over/Under: Jared Goff (-113) throws for more than 271.5 yards against the Patriots

Prediction: Under

After a somewhat slow start to the season, it looks like both of these teams have finally found their footing. The 6-6 Pats travel to LA to face the 8-4 Rams on Thursday evening.

Entering the game, Los Angeles ranks sixth in the league in passing offense, averaging 271.2 yards per game. While the Pats may not be as fearsome as they were last year, New England has the seventh-ranked scoring defense in the NFL this season. New England’s defense ranks 13th against the pass (225.8 yards/game).

So what gives? My prediction is the Rams focus on attacking the Patriots on the ground; New England is in the bottom-half of the league against the run.

Dalvin Cook

Minnesota (+116) will be the first team to score in the Vikings-Buccaneers game

Prediction: Yes

The game between the Buccaneers and the Vikings could have major NFC playoff implications: Tampa Bay is projected to be the sixth seed in the NFC while the Vikings would be the seventh seed. The winner of this game will significantly increase their chances to reach the 2020 postseason.

This one comes down to the coin flip, but I’m more confident the Vikings defense can get a game-opening stop and put points on the board than Tampa holding Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson down early in the game.

Josh Allen

Over/Under: 5.5 combined passing TDs in the Bills-Steelers game.

Prediction: Over

Sunday night could feature one of the best regular-season games of the year. The Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to bounce back after suffering a disappointing loss at the hands of the Washington Football Team, ending their bid for an undefeated season. On the other side, the 9-3 Buffalo Bills are looking to continue building their confidence heading to the playoffs.

This game features two of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Buffalo ranks fourth in passing touchdowns this season while the Steelers rank sixth. Also, the Bills (fifth) and Steelers (11th) are among the league leaders in team Quarterback Rating.

In his last five games, Josh Allen has completed 72.6% of his passes and thrown 10 passing TDs. In his last five contests, Ben Roethlisberger’s has found the end zone more frequently than Allen (12 TDs to 3 INTs). I anticipate both QBs finding success come Sunday night.

This is a primetime game that will have a huge impact on how the AFC playoff race shakes out.

Nick Chubb

Over/Under: 299.5 total rushing yards in the Ravens-Browns game

Prediction: Under

The 9-3 Browns are coming off one of the best wins in recent franchise history, hammering the Titans 41-35 last week. Baltimore is hoping they can turn things around after winning only two of their previous six outings. The Ravens desperately need this game if they want to keep their playoff dreams alive while the Browns are looking to lock in a playoff berth.

This matchup will feature the top two rushing offenses in the NFL. The Ravens have the number one rushing attack in the league (169 rushing yards per game). Cleveland is right on their heels (pun intended), ranking second in the league at 157.8 yards per game on the ground.

Will these teams maintain their season averages on the ground, or will the opposing coaching staff try to take away the run game? My bet is to take the under in this prop – both sides will focus on the run (which means check Baker Mayfield’s props this weekend as well).

Patrick Mahomes

The Chiefs (+155) will be the last team to score a TD in the KC-MIA game

Prediction: No

After starting the year 1-3, the Dolphins have rebounded to win seven of their last eight – all while making multiple changes at the quarterback position. Kansas City, on the other hand, saw their chances at the top seed in the AFC increase dramatically when the Steelers lost to Baltimore. And they have no questions or concerns under center.

Miami is battling for a playoff spot and they’ve shown a lot of heart, but Kansas City’s offense is almost impossible to slow down. While I believe the Chiefs will win this game, I’m betting the Dolphins put points on the board last.

Updated MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes looks like a sure bet to capture his second MVP award

Wow. It’s hard to believe that we’re 12 games into the NFL season already. As it is often said, though, time flies when you’re having fun. A week ago, the players considered to be the frontrunners for the league MVP award included Patrick Mahomes II, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson. 

Two of these quarterbacks led their respective teams to victory while one of them wasn’t as fortunate. Taking that into consideration, the list for this week will look somewhat different. So, without further ado, here’s a look at where the potential MVPs rank based on their performances from Week 13 (according to Unibet).

Third-Best NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen (+1400). Last Week (NR)

Well, for those of you who were in search of some new faces on our weekly list, you got your wish. The Buffalo Bills finished the 2019 season with a 10-6 record and they have already won nine games through the first 13 weeks of this season. A lot of that has to do with the play of quarterback Josh Allen. In the team’s recent 34-24 win over the San Francisco 49ers, Allen completed 32 of his 40 pass attempts for 375 yards to go along with four touchdowns. On the season, Allen is ranked third in passing yards (3,403) and he is tied for sixth in touchdown passes with 26. No, he isn’t in the same stratosphere as Mahomes or Rodgers, but he is quickly proving that he is a capable quarterback in this league. 

Before we go to the player with the second-best MVP odds, here’s a glance at a couple of other names that aren’t in our top three. The list includes Russell Wilson (+2000 odds), Ben Roethlisberger (+500), and Tom Brady (+8000). Wilson was in the mix for most of the season before a stretch of poor outings contributed to his stock dipping over the past several weeks. Before last night’s loss to the Washington Football team, Roethlisberger was tied for the second-best odds, which proves just how one performance can significantly contribute to a players’ odds in a given category. Let’s also not forget about TB12 in Tampa Bay. With Brady under center, the Buccaneers have already equaled their win total from a year ago and they are in the hunt for a postseason berth for the first time since 2007. No small feat, to say the least. 

Second-Best NFL MVP Odds: Aaron Rodgers (+400). Last Week (+550)

Despite their 9-3 mark, the Green Bay Packers have been somewhat inconsistent at various stretches of the season. After jumping out to a 4-0 start, they went .500 over their next four games. Then, following wins over the San Francisco 49ers and the Jacksonville Jaguars, they were defeated by the Indianapolis Colts 34-31 despite leading 28-14 at halftime. But the one consistent component of this team is Aaron Rodgers. In a pair of victories over the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles, Mr. Rodgers has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Not only that, but he became the fastest quarterback to reach the 400-touchdown threshold, accomplishing the feat in his 193rd game. 

Furthermore, Rodgers is ranked fifth in passing yards (3,395), tied for the third-fewest interceptions (four) and he leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 36. In other words, Rodgers has positioned himself to take over the top spot should the guy in front of him slip up. 

Best NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes II (-500). Last week (-400)

At this point, it’s not a surprise to any of us that Patrick Mahomes continues to solidify his hold as the current favorite to win the league MVP award. Aside from the New Orleans Saints — who have won nine straight games — the defending champs have won seven straight games. Additionally, in their recent 22-16 win over the Denver Broncos, Mahomes and the Chiefs earned their sixth consecutive postseason berth. Additionally, Mahomes has thrown for at least 300 yards in each of his last five outings. During that stretch, he has thrown for 15 touchdowns and just one interception. His overall body of work includes 3,815 passing yards (1st), 31 touchdowns (tied for third), and a league-best two interceptions. Of the four games remaining on the schedule, Mahomes and the Chiefs have to face a pair of teams vying for a playoff berth (Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints) in the next two weeks. On the other hand, they will finish the season against the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Chargers, both of which will finish the season below .500. If Mahomes continues to hold his own over the next two weeks, the MVP award is his to lose.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview

Bills vs. 49ers Betting Preview: Bills (-1/-107), 49ers (+1/-113)

Buffalo Bills

The Bills (8-3) retained their one-game lead in the AFC East with a 27-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers last week in a game that featured a 20-yard touchdown pass from Cole Beasley to fellow wideout Gabriel Davis. Quarterback Josh Allen also had a TD pass and a 3-yard scoring run in the win.

The Bills overcame a season-high-tying three turnovers in the triumph. It was just the third time this season that they’ve had more turnovers than their opponent, and the result made them 2-1 in those games.

Monday’s game against the 49ers matches a Buffalo team that rates below average in all three major defensive categories (rushing, passing and total) against a San Francisco team that’s above average in all three defensive categories. The Bills have been outgained in six of their past nine games, although they have found a way to win six of those contests.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers (5-6) will face the Buffalo Bills in a neutral-site game Monday in Glendale, Ariz., but will hold an advantage both in familiarity and in recent results at the home of the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers spent the week practicing in Arizona and even got an opportunity to work out at the stadium. They won 28-25 over the Cardinals in their last visit in 2019, though the Bills were there more recently, having lost 32-20 at Arizona last month.

The 49ers got back two key offensive weapons in last week’s 23-20 road win over the Los Angeles Rams. Wideout Deebo Samuel made an explosive return from a hamstring injury with 11 catches for 133 yards while top back Raheem Mostert had a team-high 43 rushing yards and a touchdown in his comeback from an ankle injury.

Due in part to the returns of cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Jimmie Ward from injuries, the 49ers have made steady improvement on defense, allowing (in order) 37, 34, 27 and 20 points in their past four games.

Bills vs. 49ers Betting Pick for Week 3

In a duel between first- and last-place teams, making the case for the latter is easier than you might think. And this is despite the fact that the last-place team won’t be able to play the game at home as originally scheduled.

The 49ers played arguably their best game of the season last week against the Rams, getting strong efforts from offensive and defensive units that are getting healthier. The Bills, meanwhile, are without one of their key offensive weapons — wideout John Brown (ankle) — and they don’t have many to start with.

Bills vs. 49ers Betting Pick: 49ers 27, Bills 16

Bills vs. 49ers Best Bet for Week 13

If you’re looking for the weak link in an 8-3 club, it’s a rushing defense that ranks 25th in the NFL. The 49ers rank just 16th in running the ball, but they returned two of their top backs last week (Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.) and looked more like the team that led the NFC in rushing a year ago. Nobody likes milking a clock more than San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan.

Bills vs. 49ers Best Bet: UNDER 48 total points (-110)

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

Sunday, November 29, 2020, Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, New York, 1 p.m. ET

Chargers at Bills Betting Preview: Chargers (+5.5/-110), Bills (-5.5/-110)

Los Angeles Chargers

Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert can’t do it all, but he’s trying. Herbert is coming off a victory over the New York Jets on Sunday when he threw for a personal-best 366 yards. He also had three touchdown passes, giving him a rookie-record five games with three or more TDs this season. He also has seven consecutive games with at least two TD passes, another rookie record.

With all the focus on Herbert, the Chargers (3-7) might be inclined to take advantage of a Bills’ defense that is 28th against the run, giving up 135.0 rushing yards per game. The Chargers did defeat the Jets on Sunday but had more issues on defense, nearly blowing a pair of 18-point leads and a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter. Already this season they blew leads of 16 points or more in four consecutive games.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills (7-3) will enter the stretch drive of their final six games of the season coming off a well-timed bye week when they were able to move closer to full strength. The Bills activated four players from the reserve/COVID-19 list, including cornerbacks Josh Norman and Levi Wallace.

Quarterback Josh Allen remains just off the pace from the top signal callers in the NFL ranking eighth overall in a number of categories including completions (249), completion percentage (68.4) and TDs (21). He is seventh in passing yards (2,871). The Bills are 20th in total defense, allowing 373.7 yards per game and need to get better at stopping the run, but should be motivated after Buffalo lost to the Cardinals on Nov. 15 on an Arizona Hail Mary pass in the end zone.

Chargers at Bills Betting Pick for Week 12

It’s hard to peg the Chargers. Are they a good team that is competitive with everybody, or one that is so embarrassingly predictable, as they keep getting exposed in the second half each week? Less confusing is a Bills’ team that moves the ball well and just needs to work on tightening the defense over the final six weeks of the regular season.

Chargers at Bills Betting Pick: Bills 31, Chargers 28

Chargers at Bills Best Bet for Week 12

The Bills give up more than 26 points per game and the Chargers give up a shade over 27 per. Both offenses are in a flow with Allen showing impressive consistency for the Bills and Herbert getting better each week for the Chargers. Points should come often, with mild temperatures expected, especially for Buffalo at this time of the year.

Chargers at Bills Best Bet: OVER 53.5 total points (-110)