OddsUSA’s NFL Best Bets for Week 12: A Young Buck vs. the Old G.O.A.T

Happy Wednesday football fans and welcome back to our weekly edition of best picks for the upcoming slate of NFL games. Last week, I predicted close wins for the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Additionally, I picked that the Steelers would win big.

The Chiefs edged the Las Vegas Raiders by a 35-31 margin, while the Steelers beat up the Jacksonville Jaguars to the tune of 27-3. Unfortunately, the Packers prevented me from earning a perfect week as they fell to the Indianapolis Colts 34-31 despite leading by a 28-14 margin at halftime.

On the heels of another 2-1 week, my record stands at 25-7. Not too shabby, but I’m still somewhat disappointed because I was so close to a 3-0 week. Now that I’m done ranting a bit, here’s a look at my top outright picks for Week 12.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I have to admit not having the defending champs as my absolute safest pick feels a bit strange, to say the least. Out of all the times I’ve gone with KC this season, this is the slimmest point spread, which makes me a little bit hesitant.

On the other hand, as is the case with most matchups, I’m going to ride the hot hand. And although the Chiefs needed a late-game scoring drive to edge the Raiders, they have won five straight since a 40-32 loss in Week 5 against, you guessed it, the Las Vegas Raiders. That being said, I’m going to go with the reigning champs to push their win streak to six games.

James’ pick: Chiefs win by less than a field goal

Week 12 NFL Best Bet No. 2: Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Seattle Seahawks have dropped two of their previous three and three of their last five games overall following a 5-0 start. Furthermore, while the Seahawks are a formidable home team, they are just 2-3 on the road.

On the other side of the coin, the Eagles are in first place in the NFC East. But don’t be deceived as they are 3-6 -1 in the worst division in the NFL. Given the fact that the Eagles have dropped their last two games, scoring 17 points in both contests, they won’t be able to keep up with one of the highest-scoring teams in the league.

James’ pick: Seahawks win by a field goal

James’ NFL Best Bet of Week 12: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

James’ NFL Best Bet of Week 12: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

Yes, the Packers squandered a golden opportunity despite jumping out to a 14-point lead against one of the better defensive units in the league. Yes, they did keep me from posting a perfect mark in Week 11.

However, there are a few reasons why Aaron Rodgers and Co. are my safe pick this time around. As a guy that was born and raised in the Windy City, I’ve been keeping a watchful eye on the Bears this season. Sure, they got off to a 5-1 start. However, that proved to be fool’s gold as they have dropped their last four games.

Meanwhile, the Packers are 3-3 in their last six games following a 4-0 start. When it comes to the Bears, though, betting against the green and gold would not be a good call. Not only are the Packers the better team this season, they always seem to be the better team when these rivals square off.

In fact, dating back to 2015, the Packers have won eight of the previous 10 meetings between these two teams. While the Bears’ defense has played well, they continue to struggle on offense. Having said that, look for the Packers’ dominance to continue against their division rival. At the same time, I’m a bit cautious about the point spread given the fact that their margin of victory exceeded 10 points just twice in those eight wins.

James’ pick: Packers win outright in a close one

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Betting Preview

Sunday, November 29, 2020, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin, 8:20 p.m. ET

Bears at Packers Betting Preview: Bears (+8.5/-110), Packers (-8.5/-110)

Chicago Bears

The 2020 Bears are a reason why “trust the process” makes sense. As they started 5-1, there was a sense that they weren’t that good, that they were winning because they were getting breaks in close games. Now that they’ve lost four in a row, a 5-5 record is a better reflection of their ability.

If Chicago is to rally for a playoff spot or even an NFC North title, it has to give its defense some help. Its offense has to at least be average, not such a joke that Bears fans have to lament when Cordarrelle Patterson doesn’t rip off big kickoff returns or their defense can’t return interceptions for scores.

Nick Foles’ sore hip could bring Mitchell Trubisky back to the lineup at quarterback, but how much difference can Trubisky make behind an offensive line that has of late experienced difficulty blocking against air, much less humans?

Green Bay Packers

The game within a game this week for the Packers works something like this: Stay out of third down if possible, even though quarterback Aaron Rodgers has perhaps the best receiver in the game on his side in Davante Adams.

To that end, don’t be shocked if coach Matt LaFleur scripts a run-heavy game plan early. The Bears’ defense is outstanding, but you can run on them, as they’re 14th in the league. And Green Bay has a very capable running back around in Aaron Jones, who has 534 yards on the ground.

While Jones has been slowed by injury, missing a couple of games, he might be due to break out for a big game. If the Packers can succeed on first or second down, they might take some pressure off Rodgers and keep Chicago’s pass rush from being a factor.

Bears at Packers Betting Pick for Week 12

It was once said of Bears founder George Halas that he had all the warmth of breaking bones. A night game on the Sunday after Thanksgiving in Green Bay would send a chill down the average fan’s spine — if fans were allowed at Lambeau Field.

In the made-for-TV studio north of Milwaukee, Chicago’s last realistic hope at an NFC North title freezes to death as the Packers’ defense becomes the latest to plunder a weak offensive line and pound whoever takes the snaps.

Bears at Packers Betting Pick: Packers 24, Bears 13.

Bears at Packers Best Bet for Week 12

With a top 10 defense and a bottom two offense, most Chicago games tend to go under the number. If a bettor wagered on the under for every Bears contest in 2020, he would have strolled to the pay window seven times in 10 games.

This looks like it will be eight in 11, unless the Chicago defense finally wears down under the immense pressure of propping up a weak offense, or said weak offense finally breaks out.

Bears at Packers Best Bet: UNDER 45 total points (-113)