French Open Women’s Final Betting Preview: Sofia Kenin vs. Iga Swiatek

Sofia Kenin vs. Iga Swiatek Betting Preview: Kenin (+135), Swiatek (-176)

Iga Swiatek will play in her first grand slam final on Saturday at just 19 years old, but sportsbooks believe the teenager is a strong favorite to win the women’s French Open title.

Swiatek was installed as a -176 favorite by BetMGM after dispatching qualifier Nadia Podoroska 6-2, 6-1 in the semifinals. Sofia Kenin also advanced in straight sets, although she had a much-harder battle in beating seventh-seeded Petra Kvitova 6-5, 7-5.     

The fourth-seeded Kenin is enjoying a breakout year that included her first grand slam title at the Australian Open and reaching the fourth round of the U.S. Open. However, Swiatek is considered the stronger clay court player and Kenin is the +135 underdog by BetMGM.

Swiatek is unseeded and looking to complete a highly improbable romp through Roland Garros.

After reaching the third round of the U.S. Open, the Poland native was bounced in the first round of the Italian Open in straight sets leading up to the French Open. In just her second full year on the WTA Tour, Swiatek has been the breakout star of the women’s draw at Roland Garros, dropping only 23 combined games in six consecutive straight sets victories.

Kenin, 21, is attempting to become the first woman to win multiple grand slam events in a year since Angelique Kerber accomplished the feat in 2016.

She has had a much more grueling path to the finals, with four of her first five matches going three sets – all against unseeded players. Kvitova was the only seeded player in Kenin’s path, and the two waged a competitive battle that saw Kenin blow a 5-2 second-set lead before ultimately prevailing.

Set Betting odds (BetMGM)

Swiatek in two sets: +135

Swiatek in three sets: +300

Kenin in two sets: +270

Kenin in three sets: +400

Swiatek has been dominating in each of her six matches, including a 6-1, 6-2 romp over No. 1 seed and 2018 French Open champion Simona Halep. She has lost more than three games in just one of 12 sets played in the tournament and has not lost more than five combined games in any match.

Four of Kenin’s six matches have gone the distance, and she twice rallied from a set down.

Kenin vs. Swiatek Betting Pick: Swiatek in three sets

Kenin vs. Swiatek Best Bet for October 10, 2020

Everything in this match points toward a Swiatek victory. But don’t forget that she’s just 19 years old and had not reached the quarterfinals of a grand slam event before this week.

Only 21 herself, Kenin is the more accomplished player with one slam under her belt and five career WTA titles.

It’s very difficult to close out a first grand slam title, much less as an unseeded teenager. Kenin isn’t overpowering and clay isn’t her best surface, but she is a feisty competitor who has proved in this tournament that she won’t roll over even after losing the opening set.

Kenin vs. Swiatek Best Bet: Match to go three sets (+135)

–Field Level Media

French Open Women’s Semifinals Betting Preview

A French Open women’s draw ransacked by upsets and the absence of defending champion Ashleigh Barty has set up a pair of unlikely semifinal matches.

On one side of the draw sits Petra Kvitova and Sofia Kenin, who have combined for three grand slam titles. Kenin’s came earlier this year at the Australian Open, while Kvitova is a two-time Wimbledon champion.

Kvitova’s most recent grand slam title came six years ago, and the 2019 Australian Open is the only other in which she has reached the final. She did reach the semis at Roland Garros once before, back in 2012.

Kenin, still only 21, is in her first French Open semifinal and has yet to reach so much as the quarterfinals at Wimbledon or the U.S. Open, where she was knocked out in the fourth round last month. She did defeat Serena Williams en route to the fourth round at Roland Garros last year.

The seventh-seeded Kvitova is the -200 favorite at BetMGM to beat Kenin (+160). The sportsbook is also offering +115 odds on Kvitova winning in straight sets and +310 on a three-set victory. Kenin is +300 to advance in straight sets and +450 to win in three.

Can a Player Without a Slam Smash Her Way to the Finals?

The other semifinal features a pair of unseeded players who have never tasted a grand slam quarterfinal, let alone a semi, before this week.

Poland’s Iga Swiatek began playing regularly on the WTA Tour in 2019 and had never advanced further than the fourth round in a grand slam until last year’s French Open. The 19-year-old did reach the fourth round of this year’s Australian Open and the third round of the U.S. Open.

Swiatek served notice of her pending arrival as a bigger threat with a dominating 6-1, 6-2 victory over 15th-seeded Marketa Vondrousova in the first round. She also cruised through the next two rounds before upsetting No. 1 seed and 2018 French Open champion Simona Halep 6-1, 6-2.

Swiatek has lost a total of 20 games in winning five consecutive matches in straight sets to reach Thursday’s semifinal against Nadia Podoroska.

Podoroska, 23, has no WTA titles and has reached the main draw of only two grand slams. However, the Argentinian became the first qualifier to reach the semifinals of the French Open when she upset third-seeded Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals.

Courtesy of the bevvy of upsets, Podoroska has had to face only one other seeded player this far. That was No. 23 Yulia Putintseva in one of Podoroska’s two three-set wins this tournament. Podoroska is looking at the possibility of reaching a grand slam final as a qualifier who had to beat only one player seeded in the top 20.

That’s why Swiatek is a heavy favorite at -358 by BetMGM to win her semifinal clash against Podoroska (+270). She has even shorter odds at -400 by PointsBet, where Podoroska is +285.

BetMGM is also offering a -143 moneyline on Swiatek winning in straight sets. That’s by far the shortest odds among the book’s set betting prop bets, followed by a three-set Swiatek win (+325), a straight sets Podoroska win (+425) and a three-set victory by Podoroska (+700).

PointsBet has set the over-under on how many more games Swiatek will win than Podoroska at 5.5, and the total amount of games played in the match at 19.5. As such a heavy favorite in her semifinal, Swiatek also carries the shortest odds of winning the women’s title.

Despite lacking a grand slam title on her resume, Swiatek is +125 by BetMGM, followed by Kvitova +162 and Kenin (+350). Podoroska is the long shot at +900.

–Field Level Media

French Open Semifinals Betting Preview: Nadal, Djokovic are Favorites to Meet in Finals

Rafael Nadal has creeped his way backed into favorite status as he sits two matches away from a 13th French Open title.

Nadal handled unseeded Jannik Sinner in straight sets to reach the semifinals, where he will face Diego Schwartzman on Thursday.

Schwartzman survived a grueling five-set quarterfinal over Dominic Thiem that lasted more than five hours.

He did have a day off between matches, but Schwartzman is the heavy underdog at +450 at DraftKings, which was offering Nadal at -667. The sportsbook was also offering Nadal as the -100 favorite to win the title, with top-ranked Novak Djokovic a slight second favorite at +1600.

Nadal, 34, lost to Schwartzman in three sets at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia preceding the French Open. However, that was his lone loss in 10 meetings against the Argentinian, and Nadal has not dropped a set since arriving at Roland Garros.

Schwartzman is the +1600 long shot to win his first major title this week. The 28-year-old has already advanced further than he ever has in a grand slam event. He is -129 at BetMGM to bow out in straight sets to Nadal, who is also +280 to win in four sets and +775 to prevail in five.

Schwartzman is being offered at +950 for a straight sets win, +1350 to win in four sets and +1300 to win against Nadal in a second consecutive five-set match.

Bet365 has placed the over-under on how many more games Nadal will with than Schwartzman at 7.5, with the over-under on total games played in the match at 31.5. The book also has a match result prop that includes both players winning at least one set: Nadal is listed at 6/4 while Schwartzman is 7/2.

Will the Djoker Reach Another Final?

Djokovic had only lost 25 combined games in cruising through the first four rounds. He dropped the first set against Pablo Carreno Busta in the quarterfinals before rallying to win 4-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4.

His path to a potential finals appearance was made easier when fourth-seeded Daniil Medvedev was bounced in the opening round, but Djokovic will face a significant task in semifinals opponent Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The fifth-seeded Greek star had to rally from two sets down to win his own opening match, but hasn’t dropped a set in four matches leading up to his showdown against Djokovic.

Djokovic is the -334 favorite by BetMGM to beat Tsitsipas (+250). The 22-year-old is in his first French Open semifinal and only the second of his career (2019 Australian Open). He’s +700 to win his first grand slam this week.

Set Betting Odds (BetMGM)

Djokovic in three sets: +140

Djokovic in four sets: +270

Djokovic in five sets: +550

Tsitsipas in three sets: +675

Tsitsipas in four sets: +800

Tsitsipas in five sets: +800

Djokovic is the 1/3 favorite to beat Tsitsipas by Bet365, which has set the over-under of games played at 36.5. The book is offering 11/10 odds on the match lasting three sets in either player’s favor, 7/4 that it will be decided in four sets and 11/4 that it goes the distance.

Bets365 is also offering Djokovic at 6/4 to win the match in more than 35.5 total games, while Tsitsipas is 11/2 to win in over 41.5.

Nadal is the three-time defending French Open winner. The last person not named Nadal to win the men’s title at Roland Garros? Djokovic in 2016, following a pair of runner-up finishes.

He’s chasing his 18th grand slam title overall this week while Nadal is gunning for No. 20, which would tie Roger Federer’s mark.

–Field Level Media