Updated MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes continues to lead the MVP race

Greeting and salutations football fans. We’re now 14 weeks into the NFL season, which means that we are officially in the home stretch. Last week, the players in the running for the MVP award included Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes II. 

Each of these players led their respective teams to victory last week, which means that there won’t be too much of a shakeup from a betting standpoint. But before we get to our top-three list, here are a couple of players that warrant consideration as well. 

Russell Wilson (+6600 odds) was the frontrunner for a good portion of the season before he was supplanted by Patrick Mahomes. Although Chef Wilson threw four touchdown passes in a 40-3 win over the New York Giants, he has surpassed the 250-yard passing threshold just one in the past five games. 

Meanwhile, another player that we’re not hearing a lot about in the MVP race is Tennessee Titans’ running back Derrick Henry (+5000 odds). On the season, Henry has accumulated a league-leading 1,532 rushing yards on 297 carries, good enough for first in both categories. Additionally, Henry needs just nine more yards to surpass his 1,540-yard output from last season. It is also worth noting that he is tied for first in rushing touchdowns with 14. Neither of these players will make up enough ground in the race, but they are putting up noteworthy numbers, to say the least. 

Now that we’ve given a well-deserved honorable mention to the players that fall outside of our top-three list, here’s a look at where potential MVP candidates rank following their performances in Week 14 (according to Unibet).

Third-Best NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen (+1600). Last Week (+1400)

To be honest, Josh Allen has not been a household name in the MVP race this season. And while his odds have dipped a bit, he comes in at the No. 3 spot for the second straight week. In the Bills’ recent outing against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Allen completed 24 of 43 passes for 238 yards to go along with two touchdowns and one interception. No, he didn’t have a great game, but it was enough for the Bills to hand Pittsburgh a second straight loss and improve to 10-3. While Allen’s production has been modest in two of his last three outings, he is still ranked sixth in passing yards (3,641) and tied for sixth in touchdown passes with 28. Future MVP in the making? Only time will tell. 

Second-Best NFL MVP Odds: Aaron Rodgers (+175). Last Week (+400)

Mr. Rodgers continues to come in at the second spot on our weekly list, and with good reason too. In the Packers’ 31-24 win over the Detroit Lions, Rodgers was 26 for 33 for 290 yards. He also had three touchdowns, marking the fourth straight outing in which he’s had at least three touchdown passes. 

During that four-game stretch, Rodgers has compiled totals of 13 touchdowns compared to just one interception. And on the season, Rodgers is ranked third in passing yards (3,685); first in touchdown passes (39), and tied for fourth with three interceptions. Needless to say, Rodgers is a big reason why the Packers are averaging a league-best 31.5 points per contest. If not for Mahomes having another solid season, Rodgers would be leading this race hands down. 

Best NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes II (-200). Last week (-500)

Although Mahomes continues to be the odds-on favorite in the MVP race, he had an interesting outing against the Miami Dolphins last week. After falling behind 10-0, Mahomes and the Chiefs went on to win the game 33-27. Not only that, but the Chiefs also won the division and clinched a playoff berth as well. In that contest, Mahomes was 24 for 34 for 393 yards, which was the sixth straight outing in which he’s topped the 300-yard plateau. 

On the flip side of the coin, the Dolphins’ defense had three sacks and three interceptions. This was the first game of the season in which Mahomes had more picks than touchdown passes. But despite a somewhat subpar outing by his standards, Mahomes still leads the NFL in total passing yards with 4,208, and he is ranked third in touchdowns passes with 33. Barring a major collapse in the final three games of the season, Mahomes is on track to take home the MVP award for the second time in three seasons.

Super Bowl Odds Update: Week 14

Happy Wednesday football fans. I can’t believe that we’re already three-fourths of the way through the NFL season. The upcoming stretch will separate the contenders from the pretenders. Last week, the list of title favorites includes the Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, and the Seattle Seahawks. 

Ironically, two of those teams were victorious, while the other two teams suffered disappointing losses. With that said, here’s a look at where the title contenders rank based on their performances from Week 13. 

Third-Best Super Bowl Odds: 

Tie: Pittsburgh Steelers & Green Bay Packers (+800)
Last Week: Packers (NR). Steelers (+550)

The Pittsburgh Steelers were the lone undefeated team going into Week 13. In their recent outing against the Washington Football Team, it appeared that Pittsburgh was on its way to adding another win to its resume after jumping out to a 14-0 lead. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off the wagon after that. Washington’s defense came to life, holding the Steelers to just three points the rest of the way en route to an unexpected 23-17 victory. It was the second straight week in which the Steelers played down to the level of their opponent, and this time, they paid the price. However, considering that they are tied for the best record in the NFL, along with having one of the best scoring defenses, it wouldn’t be wise to count them out just yet.

Meanwhile, following a minor setback against the Indianapolis Colts a few weeks ago, the Packers have strung together a pair of victories over the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles. Not only are the Packers on their way to another division title, but they are also a top-10 team in rushing; a top-five team through the air and they have the second-best offense in the NFL. I should also mention that their 31.6 points per contest is tops in the NFL. While the Packers haven’t always played up to their potential, this a team that opposing defenses do not want to face in the postseason. 

Second-Best Super Bowl Odds:

New Orleans Saints (+500)
Last Week: (+550)

A week ago, the Saints were tied for the second-best title odds with the Steelers. But thanks to the Steelers’ recent loss, the Saints have sole possession of second place on our weekly list. While their 21-16 win over the lowly Atlanta Falcons wasn’t overly impressive, it marked the team’s ninth straight victory following a 1-2 start. On top of that, Drew Brees has been on the shelf nursing an injury over the last three games. During that stretch, backup quarterback Taysom Hill hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard, but he’s made enough plays under center to keep the Saints’ offense operating at a respectable level. And from a defensive standpoint, New Orleans has given up a total of 28 points in their last three games. Given the fact that New Orleans continues to win games with one of its best players out of the mix, this is a team that you should keep a watchful eye on come playoff time. 

Super Bowl Odds Favorites: 

Kansas City Chiefs (+210)
Last week (+275) 

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs continue to sit atop the leaderboard in the title odds race. Although their 22-16 win over the Denver Broncos was a lot closer than most expected, the Chiefs are now tied with the Steelers for the best record in the NFL. Not only that, this team has one of the most explosive offenses in the league. In addition to compiling over 300 yards through the air over the past five games, Kansas City is ranked first in overall offense (427.6 yards per game), passing yards (314.4) and they have the second-highest scoring offense at 30.8 points per contest. No, the Chiefs don’t have a great running game, and they certainly have room for improvement from a defensive standpoint. At the same time, putting your money on this team would not be a bad idea at this point. 

Updated MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes looks like a sure bet to capture his second MVP award

Wow. It’s hard to believe that we’re 12 games into the NFL season already. As it is often said, though, time flies when you’re having fun. A week ago, the players considered to be the frontrunners for the league MVP award included Patrick Mahomes II, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson. 

Two of these quarterbacks led their respective teams to victory while one of them wasn’t as fortunate. Taking that into consideration, the list for this week will look somewhat different. So, without further ado, here’s a look at where the potential MVPs rank based on their performances from Week 13 (according to Unibet).

Third-Best NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen (+1400). Last Week (NR)

Well, for those of you who were in search of some new faces on our weekly list, you got your wish. The Buffalo Bills finished the 2019 season with a 10-6 record and they have already won nine games through the first 13 weeks of this season. A lot of that has to do with the play of quarterback Josh Allen. In the team’s recent 34-24 win over the San Francisco 49ers, Allen completed 32 of his 40 pass attempts for 375 yards to go along with four touchdowns. On the season, Allen is ranked third in passing yards (3,403) and he is tied for sixth in touchdown passes with 26. No, he isn’t in the same stratosphere as Mahomes or Rodgers, but he is quickly proving that he is a capable quarterback in this league. 

Before we go to the player with the second-best MVP odds, here’s a glance at a couple of other names that aren’t in our top three. The list includes Russell Wilson (+2000 odds), Ben Roethlisberger (+500), and Tom Brady (+8000). Wilson was in the mix for most of the season before a stretch of poor outings contributed to his stock dipping over the past several weeks. Before last night’s loss to the Washington Football team, Roethlisberger was tied for the second-best odds, which proves just how one performance can significantly contribute to a players’ odds in a given category. Let’s also not forget about TB12 in Tampa Bay. With Brady under center, the Buccaneers have already equaled their win total from a year ago and they are in the hunt for a postseason berth for the first time since 2007. No small feat, to say the least. 

Second-Best NFL MVP Odds: Aaron Rodgers (+400). Last Week (+550)

Despite their 9-3 mark, the Green Bay Packers have been somewhat inconsistent at various stretches of the season. After jumping out to a 4-0 start, they went .500 over their next four games. Then, following wins over the San Francisco 49ers and the Jacksonville Jaguars, they were defeated by the Indianapolis Colts 34-31 despite leading 28-14 at halftime. But the one consistent component of this team is Aaron Rodgers. In a pair of victories over the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles, Mr. Rodgers has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Not only that, but he became the fastest quarterback to reach the 400-touchdown threshold, accomplishing the feat in his 193rd game. 

Furthermore, Rodgers is ranked fifth in passing yards (3,395), tied for the third-fewest interceptions (four) and he leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 36. In other words, Rodgers has positioned himself to take over the top spot should the guy in front of him slip up. 

Best NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes II (-500). Last week (-400)

At this point, it’s not a surprise to any of us that Patrick Mahomes continues to solidify his hold as the current favorite to win the league MVP award. Aside from the New Orleans Saints — who have won nine straight games — the defending champs have won seven straight games. Additionally, in their recent 22-16 win over the Denver Broncos, Mahomes and the Chiefs earned their sixth consecutive postseason berth. Additionally, Mahomes has thrown for at least 300 yards in each of his last five outings. During that stretch, he has thrown for 15 touchdowns and just one interception. His overall body of work includes 3,815 passing yards (1st), 31 touchdowns (tied for third), and a league-best two interceptions. Of the four games remaining on the schedule, Mahomes and the Chiefs have to face a pair of teams vying for a playoff berth (Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints) in the next two weeks. On the other hand, they will finish the season against the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Chargers, both of which will finish the season below .500. If Mahomes continues to hold his own over the next two weeks, the MVP award is his to lose.

Updated NFL MVP Odds: Can Anyone Catch Patrick Mahomes II?

We’ve come to the middle of another week football fans, which means that we’re not that far away from the upcoming slate of games. With regards to the league MVP, the players who were head and shoulders above the rest a week ago included front-runner Patrick Mahomes II, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers.

All three players led their respective teams to victory. However, did Rodgers and Wilson do enough to overtake Mahomes? Here’s a look at each where each player is ranked (according to Unibet) in the race for NFL MVP based on how they performed in Week 12.

Russell Wilson

Third-Best NFL MVP Odds: Russell Wilson (+650). Last week (+300)

Early on, Wilson was the odds-on favorite to win his first MVP award. But following a tough stretch in which the Seahawks lost three times in four games, Wilson was demoted to the second spot on our weekly list. While he played reasonably well in the team’s 23-17 win over the Philadelphia Eagles (completed 22 of 31 passes for 230 yards and one touchdown), Wilson’s stock continues to dip a bit and he has slid to the last spot on our weekly list. Although there are a few games left in the season, Wilson is going to have to play exceptionally down the stretch if he hopes to make up any ground in this race.

aaron rodgers

Second-Best NFL MVP Odds: Aaron Rodgers (+550). Last week (+500)

Mr. Discount Double Check had been in third place on our weekly list but has now jumped up to the No. 2 spot. Going into the Week 12 matchup against the Chicago Bears, Rodgers was on quite the roll. He had thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last three outings to go along with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. That trend continued against the Bears’ defense this past week. While he was limited to 211 yards, he added four more touchdowns – increasing his league-leading total to 33. Needless to say, Rodgers helped lead the Packers to an easy 41-25 win against their division rival. It will be interesting to see if he can catch the guy who plays opposite him in those State Farm commercials.

The NFL MVP Odds Favorite: Patrick Mahomes II (-400). Last week (-121)

Mahomes – who won the league MVP award in 2018 – continues to solidify his hold on the No. 1 spot on our weekly list. Following a slow start to the season, Mahomes has been on fire, to say the least. Over the past three games, he has thrown for at least 350 yards to go along with 11 touchdowns. But if you thought his recent stretch of solid play was a fluke, you’d be mistaken. In a showdown against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Mahomes proved why he’s one of the top quarterbacks in the league. In that contest, he completed 37 of 49 passes for a season-high 462 yards and three touchdowns. As long as the Chiefs’ offense continues playing at this level, Mahomes is on pace to win his second MVP award in three seasons.

OddsUSA’s NFL Best Bets for Week 12: A Young Buck vs. the Old G.O.A.T

Happy Wednesday football fans and welcome back to our weekly edition of best picks for the upcoming slate of NFL games. Last week, I predicted close wins for the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Additionally, I picked that the Steelers would win big.

The Chiefs edged the Las Vegas Raiders by a 35-31 margin, while the Steelers beat up the Jacksonville Jaguars to the tune of 27-3. Unfortunately, the Packers prevented me from earning a perfect week as they fell to the Indianapolis Colts 34-31 despite leading by a 28-14 margin at halftime.

On the heels of another 2-1 week, my record stands at 25-7. Not too shabby, but I’m still somewhat disappointed because I was so close to a 3-0 week. Now that I’m done ranting a bit, here’s a look at my top outright picks for Week 12.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I have to admit not having the defending champs as my absolute safest pick feels a bit strange, to say the least. Out of all the times I’ve gone with KC this season, this is the slimmest point spread, which makes me a little bit hesitant.

On the other hand, as is the case with most matchups, I’m going to ride the hot hand. And although the Chiefs needed a late-game scoring drive to edge the Raiders, they have won five straight since a 40-32 loss in Week 5 against, you guessed it, the Las Vegas Raiders. That being said, I’m going to go with the reigning champs to push their win streak to six games.

James’ pick: Chiefs win by less than a field goal

Week 12 NFL Best Bet No. 2: Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Seattle Seahawks have dropped two of their previous three and three of their last five games overall following a 5-0 start. Furthermore, while the Seahawks are a formidable home team, they are just 2-3 on the road.

On the other side of the coin, the Eagles are in first place in the NFC East. But don’t be deceived as they are 3-6 -1 in the worst division in the NFL. Given the fact that the Eagles have dropped their last two games, scoring 17 points in both contests, they won’t be able to keep up with one of the highest-scoring teams in the league.

James’ pick: Seahawks win by a field goal

James’ NFL Best Bet of Week 12: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

James’ NFL Best Bet of Week 12: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

Yes, the Packers squandered a golden opportunity despite jumping out to a 14-point lead against one of the better defensive units in the league. Yes, they did keep me from posting a perfect mark in Week 11.

However, there are a few reasons why Aaron Rodgers and Co. are my safe pick this time around. As a guy that was born and raised in the Windy City, I’ve been keeping a watchful eye on the Bears this season. Sure, they got off to a 5-1 start. However, that proved to be fool’s gold as they have dropped their last four games.

Meanwhile, the Packers are 3-3 in their last six games following a 4-0 start. When it comes to the Bears, though, betting against the green and gold would not be a good call. Not only are the Packers the better team this season, they always seem to be the better team when these rivals square off.

In fact, dating back to 2015, the Packers have won eight of the previous 10 meetings between these two teams. While the Bears’ defense has played well, they continue to struggle on offense. Having said that, look for the Packers’ dominance to continue against their division rival. At the same time, I’m a bit cautious about the point spread given the fact that their margin of victory exceeded 10 points just twice in those eight wins.

James’ pick: Packers win outright in a close one

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Betting Preview

Sunday, November 29, 2020, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin, 8:20 p.m. ET

Bears at Packers Betting Preview: Bears (+8.5/-110), Packers (-8.5/-110)

Chicago Bears

The 2020 Bears are a reason why “trust the process” makes sense. As they started 5-1, there was a sense that they weren’t that good, that they were winning because they were getting breaks in close games. Now that they’ve lost four in a row, a 5-5 record is a better reflection of their ability.

If Chicago is to rally for a playoff spot or even an NFC North title, it has to give its defense some help. Its offense has to at least be average, not such a joke that Bears fans have to lament when Cordarrelle Patterson doesn’t rip off big kickoff returns or their defense can’t return interceptions for scores.

Nick Foles’ sore hip could bring Mitchell Trubisky back to the lineup at quarterback, but how much difference can Trubisky make behind an offensive line that has of late experienced difficulty blocking against air, much less humans?

Green Bay Packers

The game within a game this week for the Packers works something like this: Stay out of third down if possible, even though quarterback Aaron Rodgers has perhaps the best receiver in the game on his side in Davante Adams.

To that end, don’t be shocked if coach Matt LaFleur scripts a run-heavy game plan early. The Bears’ defense is outstanding, but you can run on them, as they’re 14th in the league. And Green Bay has a very capable running back around in Aaron Jones, who has 534 yards on the ground.

While Jones has been slowed by injury, missing a couple of games, he might be due to break out for a big game. If the Packers can succeed on first or second down, they might take some pressure off Rodgers and keep Chicago’s pass rush from being a factor.

Bears at Packers Betting Pick for Week 12

It was once said of Bears founder George Halas that he had all the warmth of breaking bones. A night game on the Sunday after Thanksgiving in Green Bay would send a chill down the average fan’s spine — if fans were allowed at Lambeau Field.

In the made-for-TV studio north of Milwaukee, Chicago’s last realistic hope at an NFC North title freezes to death as the Packers’ defense becomes the latest to plunder a weak offensive line and pound whoever takes the snaps.

Bears at Packers Betting Pick: Packers 24, Bears 13.

Bears at Packers Best Bet for Week 12

With a top 10 defense and a bottom two offense, most Chicago games tend to go under the number. If a bettor wagered on the under for every Bears contest in 2020, he would have strolled to the pay window seven times in 10 games.

This looks like it will be eight in 11, unless the Chicago defense finally wears down under the immense pressure of propping up a weak offense, or said weak offense finally breaks out.

Bears at Packers Best Bet: UNDER 45 total points (-113)

Updated NFL MVP Odds for Week 12: Patrick Mahomes Leads the Pack

Happy Wednesday football fans. Before I begin, I’d like to take a moment to wish everyone and their families a happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Last week, the list of players in the running for the NFL MVP award were Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Patrick Mahomes. Both Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes led their respective teams to victory, but Rodgers and the Packers came up a bit short despite jumping out to a 14-point lead. Despite that, did Rodgers do enough to close the gap with the other two QBs ahead of Week 12?

Third-Best NFL MVP Odds: Aaron Rodgers (+500). Last Week (+300)

Aaron Rodgers continues to hold down the third spot on our weekly list. Going up against one of the better defensive units in the league — the Indianapolis Colts — everyone knew that Rodgers would have his work cut out for him.

Thanks to three touchdown passes in the first half, the Packers appeared to be on their way to an easy victory, as they led 28-14 at the break. However, the Colts’ defense came to life in the second half, and in a big way. Not only did Indianapolis hold the Packers to just three points after the break, they also forced a fumble in OT, which set up Rodrigo Blankenship’s game-winning field goal, enabling the home team to escape with a 34-31 victory.

Rodgers finished 27-of-38 for 311 yards and three touchdowns. While Rodgers eclipsed the 300-yard mark for the third straight outing, it wasn’t enough to prevent his team from losing in heartbreaking fashion.

Second-Best NFL MVP Odds: Russell Wilson (+300). Last Week (+225)

Russell Wilson was the frontrunner in the MVP race for most of the season. But thanks to a stretch of three losses in four games, along with 10 turnovers in those losses, Chef Wilson has been sitting at the No. 2 spot on our weekly list over the past couple of weeks.

Coming off his worst performance of the season – a 23-16 loss against the Los Angeles Rams—Wilson bounced back to help lead his team to a 28-21 victory against the Arizona Cardinals. While Wilson had a somewhat modest outing – throwing for just 197 yards – he made enough plays to keep his team in a division race that is heating up quickly.

Also, being that the Seahawks’ next four opponents have a combined record of 8-28-1, Chef Wilson still has an opportunity to make up some ground in this race.

The NFL MVP Odds Favorite: Patrick Mahomes (-121). Last Week (+180)

Patrick Mahomes took over the top spot in the league MVP a week ago and remains the frontrunner for the second straight week. Going into the Week 11 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, Mahomes and Co. were looking for a measure of revenge against the team that handed them their only loss of the season back in Week 5.

Thanks, to a late-game drive, the Kansas City Chiefs came away with a 35-31 victory. Mahomes completed 34 of 45 passes for 348 yards and two touchdowns. After totaling just two 300-yard games during the team’s first seven games, Mahomes has thrown for at least 300 yards in each of his last three outings. He has also thrown nine TD passes and just one interception during that stretch. Simply put, Mahomes will be difficult to catch if he and the Chiefs’ offense continue playing at this level.  

Best Betting Picks for NFL Week 11: Doubling Down on the Packers, Chiefs, and Steelers

Happy Thursday football fans and welcome back to another edition of our best picks column. There was an interesting trend that unfolded in Week 10; four teams that finished below .500 last season posted victories. The list includes the Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, and the Miami Dolphins. Not only that, but these teams are a combined 24-12 this season and they’re all in the playoff hunt. This just proves that anything can happen on any given Sunday.

Last week, I predicted wins for the Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, and the Green Bay Packers, but hedged my bets by saying the Ravens wouldn’t cover while the Saints and Packers would win big. Although the Saints did win big while losing Drew Brees, the Packers only beat the fiesty Jaguars by four.

As a result, I posted a 2-1 mark to improve to 23-6 on the season. The picks for the upcoming week will be somewhat challenging as there is only one matchup that offers a double-digit point spread. So, without further delay, here’s a look at my best bets for Week 11.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet No. 1: Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

This is a classic game featuring one of the better offensive teams in the league squaring off against one of the better defensive units in the league. The Packers are ranked third in scoring (30.8 points per outing), sixth in total yards (395.8), and passing yards per game (274.3). Green Bay also falls just outside the top-10 in rushing, averaging 121.4 yards per contest on the ground.

As good as the Packers are from an offensive standpoint, the Colts’ defense is just as formidable. Indy has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per contest (198.7) and they are ranked third in rushing yards allowed per contest (91.8). Along with that, the Colts are the top team in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) and third in rushing yards per attempt (3.5). Talk about a difficult pick.

Despite the Colts’ stout defensive stats, I’m predicting that Rodgers and the Packers will have another good outing in what should be a competitive game.

James’ pick: Packers win by a field goal

Week 11 NFL Best Bet No. 2: Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Las Vegas Raiders

For those of you who have been following my picks this season, it is no secret that KC is one of the teams that I go with a lot. And I don’t make any apologies for doing so, either. After all, they are the defending champions and they are 8-1.

However, this matchup against the Raiders could be a shot at redemption for the reigning NFL champs; the Raiders handed the Chiefs their only loss – a 40-32 victory back in Week 5.

There are two reasons I’m going with the Chiefs here: First, they are a perfect 4-0 since losing to the Raiders and they have won those games by an averae of 16 points per contest. Second, Andy Reid is 18-3 in his career coming off a bye week. Considering those factors, I’m picking the Chiefs to split the season series in a close one.

James’ pick: Chiefs get revenge but don’t cover the spread

James’ NFL Best Bet of Week 11: Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Remember when I mentioned there was one matchup on this week’s slate of games that featured a double-digit favorite? Well, this is the one. On one side of the coin, we have a Jaguars’ squad that has dropped eight straight games. Sure, they hung tough with the Green Bay Packers but they’re still just 1-8 on the season.

Furthermore, the Steelers are a top-five team in passing yards allowed per contest (211.3) and they are a top-10 squad in rushing yards given up per outing (106.8). On top of that, the Steelers have the third-best scoring defense, giving up just 19 points per contest.

Based on how they played against Green Bay, the Jaguars will make this a competitive affair. In the end, though, the Steelers will prevail and remain the lone unbeaten team in the NFL.

James’ pick: Steelers win AND cover the spread

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

Sunday, November 22, 2020, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, 4:25 p.m. ET

Packers at Colts Betting Preview: Packers (+2,5/-105), Colts (-2.5/-115)

Green Bay Packers

Co-owners of the NFC’s best record despite steady injury concerns, the Packers (7-2) may have close to a full complement at their disposal. Receiver Allen Lazard was activated from injured reserve this week following his recovery from recent core-muscle surgery, while fellow receiver Davante Adams is expected to suit up after aggravating a previous ankle injury in the Packers’ 24-20 home win against Jacksonville in Week 10.

The Packers have continued winning despite a shaky defense that is tied for 30th in the NFL with 0.8 turnovers forced per game and 27th in opponent passer rating. The unit could receive a boost, however, as starting cornerback Kevin King is expected back after missing the past five games with a quad injury.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers ranks second in the league with 26 touchdown passes and has thrown just three interceptions while completing 67.8 percent of his throws.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts grabbed the AFC South tiebreaker lead with last week’s 34-17 road victory at Tennessee, and enter Sunday’s meeting with a few extra days of rest after beginning the Week 10 slate on a Thursday.

Indianapolis (6-3) excelled down the stretch against the Titans behind a no-huddle attack piloted by veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, who was 29-for-39 passing for 308 yards and a touchdown. Rivers again will look to utilize his check-downs when needed.

Running back Nyheim Hines leads the Colts with 33 receptions as the team tries to generate a more consistent running attack. After suffering their first home loss of the season against Baltimore in Week 9, the Colts will look to keep winning behind a top-ranked defense led by linebacker Darius Leonard.

Packers at Colts Betting Pick for Week 11

The Colts seem to fare as Rivers does. He has 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in the team’s six victories, but just one TD against five interceptions in the three losses.

If the Packers’ jelling pass rush and improving secondary can bait Rivers into a pick or two, that could be the difference in what shapes up as a shootout in Indy.

Packers at Colts Betting Pick: Packers 34, Colts 28

Packers at Colts Best Bet for Week 11

Rodgers with a (mostly) full stable of playmakers for a game played indoors? That figures to favor the Packers despite the hefty ranking of the Indy ‘D.’

Look for the teams to trade their share of points, yards and gutsy play-calls. Coaches Frank Reich of Indianapolis and Matt LaFleur of Green Bay both aren’t shy about going for it on fourth down.

Packers at Colts Best Bet: OVER 51 total points (-115)