By: Matt Watkins
MLS is Back Tournament Betting Preview: Group A Analysis
Who is In Group A (Alphabetical): Chicago Fire, Inter Miami, Nashville SC, NYCFC, Orlando City, Philadelphia Union.
Of all the teams in the MLS Is Back Tournament, Group A is the one that seems relatively cut and dry as to the top two teams that advance, but also is the one that has the most potential for controversy and intrigue for the third guaranteed spot. With six teams instead of the four all the other groups have, not everyone will play all the other teams. Is it an advantage for Inter Miami not having to face NYCFC? Is it a disadvantage for Chicago to not play Philadelphia, who, even though Philadelphia was the better side overall last season, struggled mightily against the Fire?
(Note: All times listed are EST)
MLS is Back Tournament Group A: Chicago Fire
Synopsis: The Fire just missed out on the postseason last year, despite a +8 goal differential, which actually tied Philadelphia for the third best in the Eastern Conference, but also underscored the up and down nature of the squad. They opened 2020 with a loss at Seattle before stopping back home for a bite to eat and then heading east, forging a 1-1 draw against New England. It’s been a while since Chicago’s heyday atop the league as the Fire has missed the playoffs the last two years and currently holds the MLS longest drought without an appearance in the conference semifinals, last reaching in 2009.
Reason for Optimism: Relative early success against 2019 playoff teams. CenturyLink Field and Gillette Stadium are among the toughest places in MLS to play. That the Fire was able to forge a draw late against the Revs and only lost to the Sounders on a stoppage time goal in the second half could bode well for confidence moving forward.
Cause for Concern: Um, who’s going to score? CJ Sapong didn’t play in either of the first two matches of the season. Nemanja Nikolic returned to Europe. Alexander Katai left for the LA Galaxy in the offseason and is currently a free agent. That trio accounted for 31 of 49 goals last season. If Sapong isn’t back, mustering just two goals in three matches isn’t out of the question for Chicago.
Critical Group Stage Match: July 8 vs. Nashville, 10:30 p.m. – Taking on one of two expansion franchises in Group A, the Fire and Nashville FC tangle in the second half of the tournament kickoff doubleheader. While a win isn’t a guarantee of advancement with matches against Inter Miami and NYCFC remaining in group play, a loss to Nashville could end the hopes for the Fire just 90 minutes into the tournament.
Prediction: Possible wild card if Sapong is healthy and plays to potential.
MLS is Back Tournament Group A: Inter Miami
Synopsis: One of the two newbies to MLS this season, Inter Miami got a lot more publicity than its expansion counterpart due to star power in the owner’s box as David Beckham is one of the primary shareholders and the public face of the team. They have yet to play a home game, falling 1-0 to LAFC and 2-1 at DC United.
Reason for Optimism: Inter Miami may be still looking to find its form at the top with just one goal in two games, but along the back, there are few keepers in MLS who are more tested than Luis Robles, who was signed as a free agent during the winter. Robles spent eight seasons with the Red Bulls, has 114 wins and a career 1.29 goals against average under his belt. He is also playoff tested with 23 postseason matches to his name.
Cause for Concern: Scoring. Inter Miami tallied once and mustered just 12 shots on goal in two matches this season.
Critical Group Stage Match: July 19 vs. Philadelphia, 10:30 p.m. – Opening with Orlando City and then Chicago next, it isn’t out of the question for Inter Miami to have two, perhaps even four points coming into the final group stage match. Either the third spot in Group A or a wild card berth could be on the line in the final contest of the group.
Prediction: Advance to knockout
MLS is Back Tournament Group A: Nashville SC
Synopsis: The other 2020 expansion team, Nashville moves to the Eastern Conference for the MLS is back tournament for scheduling purposes. The club did not get any favors in the schedule to open franchise history, hosting Atlanta and traveling to Portland in March, dropping both matches.
Reason for Optimism: The defense wasn’t terrible against Atlanta and Portland, only allowing four shots on goal in the two matches. The canary yellow kits also look pretty cool.
Cause for Concern: Of the four shots on goal Nashville allowed in two matches, Joe Willis saw three of them go by. He’s been a backup for the majority of his career coming into this season and has a 34-56-25 record with a 1.66 goals against average in 10 seasons. Maybe there’s a reason why…
Critical Group Stage Match: July 20 vs. Orlando City, 9:00 a.m. – It’s entirely conceivable, and probably likely, that Nashville will reach this match already eliminated from contention. Orlando City is the best chance to get a point in the table before heading home.
Prediction: Do not advance past group stage.
MLS is Back Tournament Group A: NYCFC
Synopsis: NYCFC won the Eastern Conference regular season last year by six points and outscored every other team in the conference by at least five goals. After gaining the First Round playoff bye, they were stunned in the conference semifinals by Toronto FC, mustering just one goal in the match. This season they were off to a humble start, losing a pair of 1-0 contests on the road at Columbus and Toronto. The road part of that is a key element as the strength of NYCFC came from defending their home pitch, going 11-1-5 at Yankee Stadium.
Reason for Optimism: On paper, NYCFC should be able to rebound. The top five goal scorers are back with Héber Araújo dos Santos, Alexandru Mitriță, Valentín Castellanos, Maximiliano Moralez, and Ismael Tajouri-Shradi combining to find the back of the net 50 times last season.
Cause for Concern: Slow start to the season. dos Santos and Mitriță, who combined for 27 of the goals were in their first MLS season after playing for lower division Euro clubs previously. Only Moralez has had any level of sustained success stateside. While seven wins away from the Bronx was the top mark in the East, playing at a neutral site without home supporters could provide a minor issue.
Critical Group Stage Match: July 9 vs. Philadelphia, 9:00 a.m. – NYCFC won both matches against the Union last season, but the oddsmakers have this one as a toss-up at the moment, with both teams sitting at +150. A win puts them in the driver’s seat in the group.
Prediction: Advance to Knockout, possibly as group winner.
MLS is Back Tournament Group A: Orlando City
Synopsis: A team with a great fan base, but has scarcely given it a reason to cheer, Orlando City has never placed better than seventh in the Eastern Conference and 14th in the overall MLS standings. The last three seasons, the club has finished 10th, 11th, and 11th in the East. Consistent leadership would be nice as, counting interim coaches, Orlando City has had six managers in six seasons. It started 2020 with a draw against Real Salt Lake before a 2-1 setback at Colorado.
Reason for Optimism: The schedule. Orlando City starts with Inter Miami and closes with Nashville, both winnable matches. If experience means anything, it should show up here.
Cause for Concern: Never quite getting over the top. Orlando City has always been the team that is annoying and pesky, but at the end of the day, just hasn’t gotten it done.
Critical Group Stage Match: July 8 vs. Inter Miami, 8:00 p.m. – Orlando City gets to start the tournament off as one of the two “hosts”. It says a lot that Inter Miami, the expansion team, is favored in this match at a -112 while Orlando City fans can clean up a tidy sum at a +260. Still, a good showing, even if it means just a point, could help spark a run.
Prediction: Do not advance past group stage.
MLS is Back Tournament Group A: Philadelphia Union
Synopsis: In its 10th season last year, the Union finally fulfilled the promise it had previously shown. Leadership from Alejandro Bedoya and a balanced scoring attack propelled Philadelphia to the number three seed in the East and a heroic comeback against the Red Bulls in the First Round of the MLS Cup Playoffs. After a lackluster effort in the season opener at FC Dallas, the Union rebounded with a thrilling 3-3 draw at LAFC.
Reason for Optimism: Balance. One of the best the biggest assets for the Philadelphia Union last year was having multiple options to score. The same should be true in the tournament as, while the majority of the defense will have to key on Kacper Przybylko who netted 15 goals last season, with Bedoya, Sergio Santos, Jamiro Monteiro, Ilsinho, and an emerging Brendan Aaronson, there will be plenty of options to find the back of the net. The Union might also have the easiest schedule in Group A. While starting with NYCFC isn’t optimal, not having to play Orlando City or Chicago, teams against whom Philadelphia has had some inexplicably bad results against in the past, is huge for the Union chances to advance.
Cause for Concern: There was a time when Andre Blake was why you went to a Union match. He would dazzle in net and still does make a save or two a game that leaves an opponent scratching its head. His goals against average has crept up in the last couple years though, and his 2019 save percentage was the lowest of his career at 59.0 (compared to 71.2 in 2017 and 70.3 in 2018). Blake playing to form will be key, especially in the knockout stage.
Critical Group Stage Match: July 9 vs. NYCFC, 9:00 a.m. – Starting with the defending Eastern Conference regular season champions isn’t the greatest deal, but even mustering a point against NYCFC will all but assure the Union of advancement with Nashville and Inter Miami left on the docket. Even a loss in the opening match doesn’t hurt too much, but better to get on the right foot. It’s an even match as the oddsmakers see it with both teams entering at +150.
Prediction: Advance to Knockout, possibly as group winner.
