Is it Time to Cash in on John Carlson’s Norris Trophy Odds
By: Ryan Gilbert
The 2020 Norris Trophy is John Carlson’s to lose at this point and the odds show it. Carlson is the biggest favorite on the board at -450 with only three other defensemen having odds better than +1000. Those defensemen are Roman Josi (+250), Alex Pietrangelo (+600), and Victor Hedman (+800).
Is it worth it to cash in on Carlson before his odds go up, or should you test your luck with a longshot?
Let’s take a look.
Best Sports Book 2020
John Carlson (Norris Trophy Odds: -450)
John Carlson is in it to win it. He leads all defensemen in both assists (49) and points (62) through 53 games this season. He is two off the goal lead with 13 goals, tied for fourth behind Zach Werenski, Dougie Hamilton, and Roman Josi.
Carlson is also a +18 while playing nearly 25 minutes (24:40) per game for the NHL-leading Washington Capitals. Alex Ovechkin gets the credit up front, and for good reason, but Carlson is the driving force on the blue line.
Given Carlson’s point total and dominant season thus far, it would take more than a few missed games for anyone to catch him. If he stays healthy, the Norris is his.
Roman Josi (Norris Trophy Odds: +250)
Roman Josi is Carlson’s biggest (and some may say only) competition for the Norris Trophy. He is the only defenseman within 18 points of Carlson, with 51 to Carlson’s 62. He also has more goals than Carlson, a higher plus-minus (+22) and plays over 26 minutes (26:02) per game for the Predators.
If Carlson falters, slows down or gets hurt, Josi will be the next man up in the Norris Trophy race. However, as mentioned above, it would take a lot of missed games by Carlson for Josi to catch up.
If you want an underdog in the fight, Josi is worth it, but at that point you’re almost betting on an injury (or similar) for Carlson.
Alex Pietrangelo (Norris Trophy Odds: +600)
Alex Pietrangelo has the third-best odds for the Norris Trophy, but he seems to be a distant third.
Pietrangelo has eight points less than Josi, who is already well behind Carlson, and 19 points behind Carlson. He is also only a +6 on the season while playing the least out of any of the top three at 24:15 per game.
Pietrangelo isn’t worth betting on at +600, or even a bit higher. Go with Carlson or Josi.
John Carlson’s odds have been around -400 to -500 for almost two months now. Get in while you can before the odds make it not worth betting on.