Philadelphia is favored slightly in this one with the over/under set at five
The Islanders come into this contest leading the series two games to one over Philly. So far, the postseason matchup has mirrored the results from the three games these teams played during the regular season. The Isles were victorious in all three regular-season games and now lead the season series five games to one. It should also be worth noting that the lone win the Flyers have over the Islanders this year came in overtime after the Flyers allowed New York to tie the game up despite leading 3-0 after the first period. There’s no doubt that the Flyers have been outmatched when facing off against the Isles this season.
The Islanders look like the better team in this series, but that does not mean the Flyers are a bad hockey team. In fact, Philly has been one of the best defensive squads in the NHL since the Stanley Cup Qualifiers began. Philadelphia has an 8-4 record in 12 postseason games so far. The difference between their wins and losses has been the effectiveness of Goalie Carter Hart. In Philly’s eight postseason victories, the team has only surrendered nine goals for an average of 1.125 goals allowed per game. The problems arise when the Flyers get in shootouts or high-scoring games. In those instances, the goaltending for Philly has been atrocious. The team has allowed opponents to score 17 goals in just four postseason losses for an average of 4.25 GAA. Simply put, when the Flyers are good, it’s like shooting a hockey puck at a brick wall, but when they are bad, they are REALLY BAD.
The Islanders have been just as good as the Flyers on defense this postseason. The reason they currently lead the series though is because of their explosion of offense that began when the playoffs did. Since the Stanley Cup Qualifiers started, the Isles have scored the fourth-most goals of all teams that reached the postseason. They are third in goals scored per game amongst all teams left in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This is a massive improvement from the regular season, where they finished 22nd in goals scored per game.
The Isles certainly displayed their offensive prowess on Wednesday, when the team stormed back after being down 3-0 to tie the game up in the third period. The Flyers went on to win this game in overtime, but you have to be impressed with the resilience and effort from New York. In past years, a 3-0 deficit after one period would take the wind out of the team’s sails. Hell, it would deflate the egos of pretty much any team in the league. However, the Isles continued to play hard and were able to score clutch goals when needed, forcing the game into OT. Like I said, the Isles did end up losing the game, but their efforts would not be in vain. New York would go on to win the very next game to take a 2-1 series lead. They now have a chance to bury the Flyers with another win today.
The last game these teams played looked like it was going to follow the script of Game Two. Barry Trotz went back to Semyon Varlamov in Game Three after a terrible Game Two. Needless to say, the decision paid off. Varlamov let in an early goal, but that would be all he would let get past him. New York would rally and score three unanswered goals to eventually win the game 3-1. It was risky for Trotz to go back to Varlamov after he was lit up in game two, but it ended up being the right choice for the team when all was said and done. You don’t abandon the guy that got you this far after one bad period.
The Flyers come into this game as slight favorites despite being down in the series. Thankfully, both teams will be at full strength since ESPN does not have any players for either franchise listed on the injury report at this time. In this case, with both teams healthy, I like the Isles to take Game Four. I still believe that this series will go six or seven games. However, I like the combo of Varlamov and Trotz more than I like the combo of Hart and Vigneault. Don’t get me wrong, I think Hart and Vigneault are on the right track to get Philly to the promised land. The problem is that Carter Hart is too young and Vigneault does not have nearly as much playoff coaching experience as Barry Trotz. Furthermore, the Flyers are towards the bottom half of the league in postseason scoring while the Isles have actually improved on their offense since the playoffs began. I think we get a solid victory from New York without hitting the over.