By: Field Level Media
Atlanta Falcons Over Under Wins:
The NFC South isn’t a breeze, and plenty of tests dot the Atlanta slate start to finish. Going to Green Bay, Kansas City and Minnesota is a steep climb in nonconference play without considering the new and intense challenge of visiting Tampa Bay. Hitting .500 looks like a home run here.
Atlanta Falcons 2020 schedule
Sept. 13 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m.
Sept. 20 at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m.
Sept. 27 vs. Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Oct. 5 at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Oct. 11 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Oct. 18 at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Oct. 25 vs. Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Oct. 29 at Carolina Panthers, 8:20 p.m. (FOX/NFL Network/Amazon)
Nov. 8 vs. Denver Broncos, 1 p.m.
Nov. 22 at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Nov. 29 vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 1 p.m.
Dec. 6 vs. New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Dec. 13 at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m.
Dec. 20 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Dec. 27 at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
2019 record: 7-9
Last playoff appearance: 2017
PointsBet over-under for Falcons wins: 7.5
FLM projects: 7 wins
Upset watch: It’s been a few moons since head coach Dan Quinn helped Pete Carroll build a Super Bowl defense in Seattle, and he knows where the weak spots are in Russell Wilson’s game. Seattle built a 24-0 lead at halftime when these teams met Week 8 last year, but the game finished as a one-possession result.
Longshot wager: If the wheels come off for the Falcons — the schedule is rough, and an injury to Matt Ryan could spell doom, for example — PointsBet has installed Atlanta as a +3000 shot (11th-best odds) for the NFL’s worst record. Stranger things have happened.
Carolina Panthers Over Under Wins
The turnaround in Carolina could be more expeditious than national pundits are projecting, but 2020 isn’t going to bring a playoff aroma to the Panthers. Teddy Bridgewater helps stabilize an offense with an MVP candidate — Christian McCaffrey — front and center. First-year head coach Matt Rhule did everything possible to address his defense by investing each of the team’s draft picks on that side of the ball. The Panthers still don’t stack up from a talent and overall playmaking standpoint.
Carolina Panthers 2020 schedule (all times ET)
Sept. 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 1 p.m.
Sept. 20 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Sept. 27 at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m.
Oct. 4 vs. Arizona Cardinals, 1 p.m.
Oct. 11 at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Oct. 18 vs. Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Oct. 25 at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Oct. 29 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 8:20 p.m. (FOX/NFL Network/Amazon)
Nov. 8 at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Nov. 15 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Nov. 22 vs. Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Nov. 29 at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Dec. 13 vs. Denver Broncos, 1 p.m.
Week 15 at Green Bay Packers, TBD
Dec. 27 at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 vs. New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
2019 record: 5-11
Last playoff appearance: 2017
PointsBet over-under for Panthers wins: 5.5
FLM projects: 5 wins
Upset watch: Close games could be the calling card of this team. They rank 18th in strength of schedule. We like their chances to tip the Chicago Bears because of what appears to be an offense without star power, but within the division, the New Orleans Saints are at risk in this matchup. Carolina typically keeps it close against New Orleans and fell just shy — 34-31 — of the upset last November.
Longshot wager: McCaffrey is +4500 to win the NFL MVP award, and we get that he won’t likely win if the Panthers aren’t putting up Ws. But consider he will be in the running if he gets near 2,750 total yards and 25 touchdowns on a mediocre team. He posted 2,392-19 last season.
New Orleans Saints Over Under Wins
NFC South division champs for three years running, the Saints still have the muscle to dominate, and the defense could be a tick better. Insurance behind Drew Brees now includes Jameis Winston, and running back Alvin Kamara is primed for a big year for a team that again made a stable offensive line a top priority. Drawing the Chiefs, Packers and 49ers at home is a huge advantage for New Orleans.
New Orleans Saints 2020 schedule
Sept. 13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sept. 21 at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Sept. 27 vs. Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Oct. 4 at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 12 vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Oct. 25 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 1 at Chicago Bears, 4:25 p.m. ET
Nov. 8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Nov. 15 vs. San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET
Nov. 22 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 29 at Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m. ET
Dec. 6 at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 13 at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET
Dec. 20 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET
Dec. 25 vs. Minnesota Vikings, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX/NFL Network/Amazon)
Jan. 3 at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET
2019 record: 13-3
Last playoff appearance: 2019
PointsBet over-under for Saints wins: 10.5
FLM projects: 11 wins
Upset watch: Taking the show on the road has always been a variable for this offense. Going to Denver and Chicago could set the Saints up for tight games — if not losses — but even with Brees out, the Saints were 11-6-0 in 2019 against the spread.
Longshot wager: The Saints have the fourth-best odds to finish the 2020 season undefeated. That’s probably not happening, but at 150-1, you can find worse ways to spend your wild-card cash. Compare the investment to the Chiefs and Ravens at 25-1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2020 Schedule
Underrated in the entire projection of the Buccaneers’ 2020 season is a defense that could be downright filthy. So many offensive weapons and arguably the greatest quarterback of all-time will drive a lot of attention, but Tampa’s defense will secure plenty of wins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2020 schedule
Sep. 13 at New Orleans Saints, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sep. 20 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET
Sep. 27 at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m. ET
Oct. 4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1:00 p.m. ET
Oct. 8 at Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m. ET (FOX/NFL Netwprl/Amazon**)
Oct. 18 vs. Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m. ET
Oct. 25 at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m. ET
Nov. 2 at New York Giants, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Nov. 8 vs. New Orleans Saints, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Nov. 15 at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 23 vs. Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Nov. 29 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET
Dec. 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 20 at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
Week 16 at Detroit Lions, TBD
Jan. 3 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
2019 record: 7-9
Last playoff appearance: 2007
PointsBet over-under for Buccaneers wins: 10
FLM projects: 11 wins
Upset watch: The Bucs were 5-9-2 against the spread last season, fourth-worst in the NFL, but that’s about to change unless expectations are astronomical. One game that will be watched around the world is the Chiefs visiting Raymond James Stadium in one of the headliners of the 2020 season. We like Tampa’s chances in an emotionally charged environment to post a Brady-driven victory.
Longshot wager: Shaquil Barrett is +3300 to claim Defensive Player of the Year honors, and the 27-year-old might be priced in the right spot at the moment. But if the Buccaneers are the offensive juggernaut many expect, seeing Barrett hit 17 or 18 sacks and racking up big plays is feasible. That puts him squarely in the DPOY conversation.
–Field Level Media