NFL Over Under Wins: AFC South Over Under Wins Edition
Houston Texans Over Under Wins for 2020:
Leading big at Kansas City in January, the Texans appeared set to host the AFC Championship Game. Now heading into 2020 they have an uphill climb just to reach the playoffs. Cap-strapped Houston shipped off DeAndre Hopkins and declined to upgrade its shaky O-line or secondary this offseason. The pressure will be on Deshaun Watson to compensate.
Houston Texans 2020 Schedule:
Sep. 10 at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Sep. 20 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sep. 27 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 4 vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 11 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 18 at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 25 vs. Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m. ET
BYE
Nov. 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 15 at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 22 vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 26 at Detroit Lions, 12:30 p.m. ET
Dec. 6 vs. Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 13 at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 19 or 20 at Indianapolis Colts, TBD
Dec. 27 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
Jan. 3 vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET
2019 record: 10-6
Last playoff appearance: 2019
PointsBet over-under for Texans wins: 8
FLM projects: 7 wins
Upset watch: It’s hard to imagine a rematch going well for Houston after how the divisional playoff game at Kansas City ended. And yet, the Texans beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium 31-24 last October before storming out to a 24-0 lead in the playoff meeting. Don’t put it past Watson to outduel Patrick Mahomes on this bright stage in Thursday night season opener.
Longshot wager: After a series of questionable trades, Bill O’Brien won’t win any public opinion polls, but should his Coach of the Year odds (+5000) be tied for dead last in the league? As both the coach and GM, he’ll deserve major credit if the Texans thrive, especially if Laremy Tunsil, David Johnson and Brandin Cooks star along the way.
AFC South Over Under Wins: Indianapolis Colts Over Under Wins Schedule
Despite Andrew Luck’s stunning retirement, the Colts started 5-2 in 2019 before things fell apart. A 38-year-old Philip Rivers isn’t on Luck’s level, but he still raises Indianapolis’ ceiling back toward playoff contention. Just as important, Chris Ballard has quietly built one of the league’s deepest rosters, with DeForest Buckner a perfect fit in Matt Eberflus’ underrated defense.
Indianapolis Colts 2020 schedule:
Sept. 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
Sept. 20 vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET
Sept. 27 vs. New York Jets, 4:05 p.m. ET
Oct. 4 at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 11 at Cleveland Browns, 4:25 p.m. ET
Oct. 18 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
BYE
Nov. 1 at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 8 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 12 at Tennessee Titans, 8:20 p.m. ET (FOX/NFLN)
Nov. 22 vs. Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 29 vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 6 at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 13 at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m. ET
Dec. 19 or 20 vs. Houston Texans, TBD
Dec. 27 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET
Jan. 3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
2019 record: 7-9
Last playoff appearance: 2018
PointsBet over-under for Colts wins: 9
FLM projects: 10 wins
Upset watch: The Colts might be the AFC South favorite, and the Jaguars are the odds-on favorite to post the NFL’s worst record, but Jacksonville has been a thorn in Indy’s side of late. The Jaguars have won six of the last nine meetings and four of six, with three of the last four victories by at least 18 points. The Colts should certainly be wary.
Longshot wager: With several talented quarterbacks and running backs, the Offensive Rookie of the Year chase should be heated, but Jonathan Taylor is worth a look at +1100. He piled up yards at a record rate for Wisconsin and might be the featured back behind one of the NFL’s best O-lines in Indianapolis. The fumbling worries are legitimate, but Taylor could be an immediate star.
AFC South Over Under Wins: Jacksonville Jaguars Over Under Wins
The Jaguars have the lowest over-under total in the NFL, which is no surprise. Their minus-97-point differential in 2019 was seventh-worst in the league, and an offseason fire sale left the defense nearly unrecognizable from the stellar 2017 unit. Quarterback Gardner Minshew should be entertaining, but he won’t have much help around him. Jacksonville might be playing for 2021, anyway.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2020 schedule:
Sept. 13 vs. Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET
Sept. 20 at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET
Sept. 24 vs. Miami Dolphins, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Oct. 4 at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 11 at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 18 vs. Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET
BYE
Nov. 1 at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET
Nov. 8 vs. Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 15 at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 22 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 29 vs. Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 6 at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 13 vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 20 at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 27 vs. Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
Jan. 3 at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET
2019 record: 6-10
Last playoff appearance: 2017
PointsBet over-under for Jaguars wins: 5
FLM projects: 4 wins
Upset watch: The Jaguars’ offense isn’t loaded with talent, but the receiving corps is young and deep, with a variety of weapons in D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook and Laviska Shenault. The Vikings’ defense faded some in 2019, and the secondary is suddenly very thin, making Minnesota more exploitable than in years past.
Longshot wager: Only two teams have ever finished a 16-game season winless, and the Jaguars aren’t likely to join them, but they are the only team offered (+3000) to go 0-16. Jacksonville should win a few games, but the incentive to lose — with Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence waiting in the 2021 draft — could grow with a rough start.
AFC South Over Under Wins: Tennessee Titans Over Under Wins
The Titans finished 9-7 for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, but Ryan Tannehill’s breakout and a run to the AFC Championship created optimism for something more in 2020. Is it warranted? Tennessee returns largely the same roster but without Jack Conklin, Jurrell Casey or Logan Ryan. Tannehill must prove his 2019 campaign was more than lightning in a bottle.
Tennessee Titans 2020 schedule:
Sept. 14 at Denver Broncos, 10:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Sept. 20 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
Sept. 27 at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 4 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 11 vs. Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET
Oct. 18 vs. Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET
BYE
Nov. 1 at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 8 vs. Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 12 vs. Indianapolis Colts, 8:20 p.m. ET (FOX/NFLN)
Nov. 22 at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET
Nov. 29 at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 6 vs. Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
Dec. 19 or 20, Detroit Lions, TBD
Dec. 27 at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Jan. 3 at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET
2019 record: 9-7
Last playoff appearance: 2019
PointsBet over-under for Titans wins: 8.5
FLM projects: 9 wins
Upset watch: Aaron Rodgers can light up any defense — especially at home — and some believe he’ll be more motivated than ever this season. But the Titans match up well to the Green Bay Packers, whose soft run defense didn’t get much help this offseason. Tennessee won the last meeting 47-25 in Nashville in 2016.
Longshot wager: Despite leading the conference championship by 10 in January, the Titans have only the seventh-best odds (+1500) to win the AFC title game this year, trailing Kansas City (+225), Baltimore (+275), Indianapolis (+1100), Buffalo (+1200), New England (+1200) and Pittsburgh (+1200). You could do much worse if looking for value.
