NFL MVP Odds Week 1 Recap: No Surprises in MVP Race


NFL MVP Odds: the NFL MVP Favorites All Perform as Expected

Week one of the NFL season is officially in the books. No major upsets, two somewhat surprising routs and all of the NFL MVP candidates remain intact. It’s not an award that you lose in Week 1, but one of the favored quintet does need to elevate his game a little to stay with the leaders.  

Speaking of the leaders, hello Patrick Mahomes. He entered the season as the favorite at +500. Nothing that happened in Week 1 changed that; 25-of-33, 378 yards, three TDs. A little concern over losing Tyreek Hill, but not a lot. Mahomes is just fine.  

I said in our preseason article that I didn’t get why people were so high on Aaron Rodgers (+950) chances at winning the MVP. A new coach, new system, and no preseason reps led to very underwhelming numbers against the Bears. A good Chicago defense, but 60 percent completions for 203 yards and one TD? Gotta show me more.  


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Carson Wentz +1400 got off to a slow start, but picked it up towards the end of the first half with a long TD pass to DeSean Jackson. He was back to his old tricks in the second half and wound up with three scores and over 300 yards passing.  

Drew Brees and Tom Brady (each +1100) did their thing. Brady dismantled a solid Pittsburgh defense with surgical precision. 67 percent completion, 341 yards, three TD. What’s frightening is how much better he could get if Antonio Brown is a competent citizen and Josh Gordon puts a whole season together.  

Brees had a slow start to the game against the Texans, but rebounded to lead a last-minute drive, throwing for 370 yards and three scores. Any concerns his arm lost some zip at the end of last season can be put to rest.  

Tips of the cap to Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton, but I don’t think the numbers they put up are sustainable. Of course, that’s what the rest of the season is for, to prove us wrong.  

At the end of the day, week one didn’t teach us much about who will win the NFL MVP beyond what we already know. As we head to week two, the big question lies with Rodgers and if he can bounce back or if the line moves in the wrong direction on his chances.