Sunday, October 4, 2020, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri, 4:25 p.m. ET
Patriots at Chiefs Betting Preview: Patriots (+7/-120), Chiefs (-7/+100)
New England Patriots
Cam Newton settled in to a typically “multiple” offense in New England. The Patriots are masters of using formation and shifting to align matchups in their favor, but with Newton the goal is to create simplified looks and open running lanes.
New England didn’t have Sony Michel at practice Wednesday but is encouraged that Damien Harris, a bright spot during training camp, might be ready to get on the field before Sunday. Harris would add an element to a running game that starts with Newton, a determined runner.
The Patriots are clicking in the passing game and Newton and Julian Edelman have formed a fine pairing in the first three games. Newton has hit just over two-thirds of his passes (62 of 91) for 714 yards and two touchdowns, with two interceptions, while adding four rushing TDs.
New England’s secondary boasts the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Stephon Gilmore, but the Chiefs don’t mind if one player wants to chase Tyreek Hill all over the field. Mahomes has weapons aplenty, and last week threw TD passes to his left tackle and fullback.
He will take what Bill Belichick gives him, even if it means methodically picking apart the secondary with short and underneath tosses.
Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes has nine TD passes this season and last week threw for four TDs while rushing for another in a headline matchup with Lamar Jackson at Baltimore. The Chiefs are up to the evolving task of keeping Mahomes safe in the pocket. He has been sacked only twice this season, and New England features no feared pass rushers.
Hill’s speed puts fear in the minds of safeties, but Belichick often respects the game’s best with deep coverage to force them to patiently piece together drives.
If New England gets the one big play on special teams or defense to make Mahomes antsy, it could shift the dynamic of the game. Because Kansas City’s defense is struggling with injuries.
Rookie cornerback L’Jarius Sneed is out after breaking his collarbone at Baltimore. Cornerback Bashaud Breeland is completing a four-game suspension. Also, tackle Chris Jones (groin) and end Alex Okafor (hamstring) were limited Wednesday at practice. Offensive guard Andrew Wylie is back after missing the Ravens game with a stomach illness.
Patriots at Chiefs Betting Pick for Week 4
Mahomes is playing on a different plain than most other quarterbacks comprehend right now and even Belichick hasn’t proven able to slow him down — even with his best personnel available. That’s not the case Sunday, when the Patriots are outmanned and outgunned by the No. 1 offense in the NFL.
Patriots at Chiefs Betting Pick:
Chiefs 31, Patriots 27
Patriots at Chiefs Best Bet for October 4, 2020
Kansas City will score. And score. And then score some more. That will limit Newton’s running chances as the Patriots flip it downfield to attempt to keep pace with Mahomes. Expect a huge yardage day from Newton, even if the Chiefs tighten up in the red zone.
Patriots at Chiefs Best Bet: Newton passing yards over 259.5 (+120)