Tom Brady NFL MVP Odds to Pull Down a Fourth Award
By: Matt Watkins
We all heard the noise. Tom Brady is a free agent. He said he would listen to offers. Bill Belichick doesn’t play favorites.
But this was Tom Brady. I mean, if anyone deserves preferential treatment, it’s TB12, right?
So here we are, in a post-apocalyptic world, where Tom Brady will not be a New England Patriot. Just typing that feels awkward. But is it necessarily a bad thing? Many people said the relationship between Brady and Belichick was strained for years. At his postgame press conference after the loss to Tennessee in the playoffs last season, people said he looked more relaxed and comfortable than ever. Maybe that was an indicator he’d already made a decision, only he knows.
But is moving on a bad thing? In this case, with a player on the back end of his career, who still has some level of greatness in him, being in a situation with new receivers, new coaches, and an updated offensive philosophy could be just the ticket for Brady to flourish.
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Why Tom Brady NFL MVP Odds Are Looking Good(win)
Let’s look first at what Brady has around him with the Bucs. Chris Goodwin and Mike Evans were both in the top-20 of the NFC last season in receptions and top-10 in yards. Breshad Perriman and O.J. Howard also ranked in the top-50 in receiving yards. All four are WR or TE. Downfield speed and targets along with possession guys are a recipe for success. Add in secondary guys like Cameron Brate in a two-TE set or Dare Ogunbowale and Ronald Jones out of the backfield, and you get schemes that Brady has been successful in during his career.
Another thing you can’t forget is with Bruce Arians coaching, there will be a lot of chances to move the ball through the air. That’s his style, sometimes to a fault (ex, Jameis Winston tossing 30 picks last year). But it can’t be overlooked that Ben Roethlisberger’s first two Pro Bowls came under Arians. As did Andrew luck’s first Pro Bowl. He guided a 36-year old, post injury Carson Palmer to Second Team All-Pro status as recently as 2015. For all the conversation, and rightly deserved about Belichick being one of the best coaches ever, putting two offensive football minds together like Arians and Brady.
For what it’s worth, the bettors never wavered from Brady, even with the “decline” he showed in the second half of last season. As late as March 9, Brady was still the fifth most-best player for the 2020 NFL MVP race. Maybe that’s sentiment about someone who has performed so well in the past. That can be dangerous, however. As the old saying goes when investing, prior success is not an indicator of future performance.
Where it gets interesting though are the more recent odds. His money line had jumped to +1600 on March 27. That’s ahead of Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz, and Aaron Rogers, all of whom, except for Prescott and Murray had better money line to start the season last year than Brady and Prescott jumped ahead of him by the end of week four.
Basically, when you boil it down, the people who make their money on these things think that Brady to the Bucs is gold. If you’ve read my articles before, I’m a little more cautious, so I want to see weeks one and two of the regular season before I’d put any money down. At the end of the day though, if that line dips below +1000, jump. Jump fast, jump hard, and get the best ROI you can. Maybe you won’t get the $1,600 for a $100 bet you would now, but it would still be a tidy sum.