NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Betting on the NFL is the most popular form of sports betting in the United States and the NFL futures market is a big reason why. In addition to betting on the team you believe will win the Super Bowl, you can also bet on the individual players you believe will take home the NFL MVP award, offensive player of the year, and defensive player of the year.
However, another wrinkle in the NFL futures market lies in betting on the rookie that you believe will take home the NFL ROY (Rookie of the Year) award. The NFL ROY market is separated into two categories, one for offense (NFL OROY) and one for defense (NFL DROY).
Each market brings an allure for both casual and professional bettors alike, but we’ll be looking at the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Don’t worry, you can find the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds on OddsUSA as well. Many new bettors to the sport will like to make a side wager on their teams new prized rookie to be named Rookie of the Year at the end of the season, while many pro bettors will try to find the hidden gem on offense that can put some extra money in their pockets at the end of the season.
Here’s how to bet on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds:
Betting on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Unlike the NFL MVP award which heavily favors quarterbacks, the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award tends to heavily favor running backs. There are reasons for this, namely that it is much more common for a rookie running back to step in from day one and have a lasting impact on a teams offense than it is for a quarterback who is typically gently inserted into a teams offense as the season goes on.
Very rarely do you see a quarterback start from day one and have a tremendous impact on a team’s season (at least in a positive manner). Although Kyler Murray brought home the award while quarterbacking the Arizona Cardinals last season, the previous two winners were both running backs and seven of the last 11 winners of this award have been a running back or wide receiver. Overall, 35 of 54 winners of this award have been running backs.
With that being said, here is an example of how the board may look like at your preferred sportsbook when looking at the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year futures market:
Odds to win NFL Offensive ROY
Joe Burrow +220
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +500
Tua Tagovailoa +750
Jonathan Taylor +1000
D’Andre Swift +1100
Ceedee Lamb +1500
In this example, QB Joe Burrow is considered the early favorite for NFL Offensive ROY because he is a quarterback that figures to start from day one and potentially put up good numbers. After that you see you see running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire followed by Tua Tagovailoa and another running back in Jonathan Taylor.
If you believe the rookie running backs in the best position to help from the beginning of the season will put up the best stats, then you are looking at either Edwards-Helaire or Taylor. If you think it’s going to be another quarterback taking the reins, either in Cincinnati or Miami, then you would go with Burrow or Tagovailoa. The history based model would say the running backs, and in this case, if you went with Edwards-Helaire as the favorite running back, a wager of $100 would bring you back $500 plus your original $100 wager.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Wagering
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year wagering works essentially in the exact same manner as betting on who you believe will win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, the lone exception, of course, being that you are wagering on a defensive player to win this award.
Unlike the NFL OROY award though that’s heavily weighted towards running backs, the NFL DROTY award is much more widespread in who wins it. The award has been slightly favored towards inside linebackers, in large part because they are more common to start from the beginning and rack up better individual stats than a cornerback or defensive linemen, but those other positions have produced winners as well.
An example of what the board may look like for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year may look like so:
Odds to win NFL Defensive ROY:
Nick Bosa, DE +850
Devin White, LB +850
Devin Bush, LB +900
Josh Allen, LB +1100
Quinnen Williams, DT +1100
In this case Bosa is listed as the small favorite, in large part because of his draft position (2nd overall) with three linebackers hot on his tail. If you believed Bosa would win DROTY and he did just that – you would be rewarded with a great payout of $850 on a $100 wager.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Trends
Before making your wager on the rookie you believe will set the NFL world on fire, you should know these trends going in.
- Running backs have won NFL OROY in two of the last three seasons and three of the last five
- Dak Prescott (2016) and Kyler Murray (2019) are the only quarterbacks to win the award in the last seven seasons
- Dan Marino is the only quarterback in NFL history to win OROY with fewer than 12 starts in his rookie season
- No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won the NFL OROY award
- Among the 54 Offensive Rookie of the Year award winners – 39 of them were drafted in the first round and 47 were drafted in the first two rounds.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
- 12 of the last 13 Defensive Rookie of the Year awards went to first round draft picks with 11 of those selected in the top 15 of their respective draft
- The DROY award has only been awarded to a safety twice, with the last winner being Mark Carrier in 1990
- Inside linebackers have won 7 of the last 16 DROY awards, with defensive ends/EDGE players winning 4