NBA Finals Game One Preview For 9/30/2020

Sep 30, 2020 - 2:05 PM ET

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Lakers are favored by 4.5 points over the Heat in the first game of the NBA Finals

Before we analyze the matchup, I first want to applaud NBA Commissioner Adam Silver. I believe that Silver is the most open-minded and progressive commissioner in North American sports. I also think he is the best Commissioner in the big four sports (I probably should have led with that). He faced his greatest task in his six-year tenure back in March when the NBA season was put on pause due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Silver and his team responded to this unprecedented challenge by putting together an unforgettable basketball tournament. The NBA Bubble was both exciting and insanely successful since they were able to keep everybody safe from Coronavirus. 22 teams arrived in Orlando back in August to complete the NBA season, and the league will do just that in early October when a new NBA champion is crowned. Kudos to Adam Silver and his staff for putting on an excellent display of sports and sportsmanship.

The NBA Finals will pit the Los Angeles Lakers against the Miami Heat in a best-of-seven series. This series marks the sixth time that the Heat will be competing in the NBA Finals. Miami will be looking to win its fourth NBA Championship in team history. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers are no strangers to the finals. LA has reached the NBA Finals 32 times resulting in 16 championships. However, the Lakers have not won the West since 2010 while Miami hasn’t been to the finals since 2014. One of these franchises is going to end a short-lived championship drought when all is said and done.

The Miami Heat are a bit of a surprise coming out of the East. There were no doubts the Heat are a good team. However, most analysts picked the Bucks or the Celtics or even the Raptors to win the East before the season began. In all fairness to the Heat, they did finish the regular season as the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. Regardless, Miami proved they belong in the NBA Finals by beating three higher-seeded teams. The Heat clowned the fourth-seeded Pacers in their first series of the playoffs, sweeping Indiana in four games. Miami bullied Indiana, winning those four matchups by an average of 10.5 points per game. After that, Miami faced its toughest test of the year, going up against the Milwaukee Bucks who finished the regular season with the highest winning percentage in the NBA. Oh, did I also mention that the Heat had to go up against the regular-season MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo? Sorry, it must have slipped my mind. Anyway, Miami took the series in five games after winning the first three-in-a-row. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat beat the Boston Celtics in six games to advance to the NBA Finals. It was one of the closest series of the playoffs. The average margin of victory over those six games was just 7.83 points per game. Miami’s first three wins in that series came by a grand total of 11 points. It was only in Game Six that Miami really dominated the Cs, beating Boston by a final score of 125-113. Now, the Heat will face a familiar foe when they go up against the Los Angeles Lakers and LeBron James.

The Los Angeles Lakers had “championship or bust” aspirations coming into this season. After acquiring LeBron James in 2018 and Anthony Davis in 2019, the Los Angeles Lakers finally looked ready to end their six-year postseason drought. How did they respond to this newfound pressure to succeed? The team went 52-19 and finished the regular season as the number one seed in the West. LA only got better once the playoffs began. The Lakers won all three of their series, going 12-3 on their way to an NBA Finals berth. Obviously, LeBron James will get a lot of credit for helping the Lakers reach the finals, but Anthony Davis deserves recognition as well. In 15 games, the former Kentucky superstar has averaged 28.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per contest, all while shooting the ball at a 57% clip. AD has improved on his scoring, his passing, and his shooting accuracy since the playoffs started. As a result, LA has won every 2020 playoff series in five games. It should also be known that AD has the highest Player Efficiency Rating of all individuals remaining in the postseason. LeBron does deserve to be praised for LA’s success, but the Lakers would not be competing for the franchise’s 17th championship without Anthony Davis.

Now let’s take a look at this series matchup. Both these teams excel on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Miami is ranked fifth in scoring defense and scoring offense. On the other side, Los Angeles is third in scoring and third in defense. In fact, Miami and LA are similar in most important statistical categories this postseason. LA is first in assists while Miami is third. The Heat hold opponents to 45.2% shooting from the field while the Lakers hold opponents to just 45%. Hell, one would even think that with LA’s big men, they would have a clear advantage on the glass, but even that isn’t the case. Los Angeles only averages 0.8 more rebounds per game than the Heat this postseason. There is one area where one of these squads has a clear advantage over the other: field goal percentage. The Lakers have the highest shooting percentage of all teams that qualified for the playoffs, making 49.8% of their shots up to this point. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are just seventh in scoring accuracy with a shooting percentage of 45.9%. If the Lakers can limit the number of shot attempts Miami takes each game, then I like LA’s chances to win this series in five or six games.

I have a lot of respect for the Heat. Their franchise looked like the most hungry team in the East. I said multiple times the Heat would beat the Celtics and advance to the finals because they are mentally tougher than Boston. Now that they are in the finals, I think they will be going up against a team that is just as mentally tough as them. I mean, did you see LeBron after the Lakers won the Western Conference Championship? The man looked like he was angry he had to be there for the trophy presentation. You can tell LA is on a mission. I think the Lakers exert their will and win a close contest while the Heat just barely cover the 4.5 point spread.

Lakers 105 – Heat 101