When the Pac-12 season finally got underway, the championship game was expected to be between the USC Trojans and Oregon Ducks. Why? Well —because the Ducks won it last year, and the Trojans had a great offense coming back. That, and the competition was not expected to be too challenging.
It was not, but it was challenging enough to knock the Ducks out of the title game. But with COVID-19 issues hitting the Washington program hard, Oregon made the big game anyway. They didn’t earn it, but someone has to play since Washington is unable to.
But can they win?
That is a tough question to answer. Early on, the Ducks looked like a good team. But then they flopped against Oregon State and then lost to Cal. While USC is undefeated, the Trojans have needed dramatic fourth-quarter comebacks in three games.
It is hard to tell which team is legit (if either) which means it may be smarter to consider betting on some of the game’s prop bets than just bet on the winner. Bovada has a few good ones:
USC-Oregon Alternate Lines
USC -3.5 (EVEN)
USC -4.0 (+105)
USC -4.5 (+110)
USC -5.0 (+115)
USC -5.5 (+120)
USC -6.0 (+125)
USC -6.5 (+140)
USC -7.0 (+165)
USC -7.5 (+170)
USC -8.0 (+175)
USC -8.5 (+175)
USC -9.0 (+180)
USC -9.5 (+185)
USC -10.0 (+210)
USC -10.5 (+220)
USC -11.0 (+225)
USC -11.5 (+230)
USC -12.0 (+235)
USC -12.5 (+240)
USC -13.0 (+250)
USC -13.5 (+250)
The official Bovada betting line says the Trojans are favored to win the game by 3 points (-110). While the Trojans have needed to make comebacks in most of their games this season, that should not be the case in this one.
Oregon’s pass defense has been struggling, and it is quite likely that USC will look to take advantage of it early and often. Most of the time, they will probably prevail and score. But while the Ducks offense is good enough to keep up for a while, they will not do it for the whole game.
So, why take the official spread and a low payout if you do not have to? Why not give the Ducks a touchdown (+165)? For those who are really confident in the Trojans, why not give the Ducks 13.5 points so you can get an even bigger payout?
The smart play here is to go with USC by seven. USC is going to put up some points on the Ducks. But if the Oregon offense can get on track early, the Ducks may be able to keep this one within a touchdown….but they might not.
Best USC-Oregon Alt Spread: USC -7 (+165)
USC-Oregon Margin of Victory Prop
Oregon By 1-6 Points (+450)
USC By 1-6 Points (+375)
Oregon By 7-12 Points (+650)
USC By 7-12 Points (+600)
Oregon By 13-18 Points (+1000)
USC By 13-18 Points (+750)
Oregon By 19-24 Points (+1600)
USC By 19-24 Points (+1000)
Oregon By 25-30 Points (+2200)
USC By 25-30 Points (+1800)
Oregon By 31-36 Points (+3300)
USC By 31-36 Points (+2000)
Oregon By 37-42 Points (+5000)
USC By 37-42 Points (+3300)
Oregon By 43 Or More Points (+5000)
USC By 43 Or More Points (+3500)
Both teams have good offenses, but USC’s is better. Neither team has a strong defense, but the Trojans do have a better one. So, this game will likely be a modest win for the Trojans. USC will probably win by at least a touchdown, but they could win by more.
The safe bet would be to go with USC by 1-6 points, but the better bet is USC by 7-12. If you are up for taking on some risk for more of a reward, consider taking USC by 13-18. But only bet money on that one that you are okay with never seeing again.
Best Margin of Victory Bet: USC by 7-12 points (+600)
USC-Oregon Total Points Scored
Between 0 And 20 (+8000)
Between 21 And 30 (+3500)
Between 31 And 40 (+1100)
Between 41 And 50 (+550)
Between 51 And 60 (+340)
Between 61 And 70 (+340)
71 And Over (+195)
There is potential for a lot of points to be scored in this game. Both teams have scored right around 35 points a game this season while holding opponents to 28 (Oregon) and 25 (USC). It will all depend on whether both teams can get their offenses on track early in the day.
Kedon Slovis has thrown five touchdowns in each of his last two games. If Tyler Shough can break out of his current funk, he may be able to do the same. Since he will probably be playing catch-up most of the game, he will be throwing a lot against a lackluster secondary.
The Pac-12 Championship game will either be a high scoring contest with both teams putting up 35+ (so, take 71 and over), or it will be something like 35-26, USC. So, take 71 and over to be safe, but consider putting a little on between 51 and 60 and between 61 and 70.
Best Totals Prop Bet: 71 and over (+195)
Also Consider: Between 51 and 60 (+340), Between 61 and 70 (+340)
USC-Oregon Race to 35 Points
USC (+175)
Oregon (+245)
Neither (+140)
If the Trojans offense disappears for part of the game, like it has a few times this year, then the right answer might be neither. But if one of the two were to reach 35, the Trojans will do it first. Slovis is a better quarterback than Shough, though, so take USC to reach 35 points first.
Best Bet: USC (+175)
