For much of the season, it looked like Big 12 fans were not going to see Oklahoma reign supreme once again. After the early loss to Kansas State, there was still hope. But when they followed that up with a loss to Iowa State, it looked like they did not have a chance.
But losses by Oklahoma State to Texas and the Sooners opened the door back up. Oklahoma was more than happy to walk right through it.
However, while the Sooners are playing in the game, they are far from a lock to win it. After all, they are facing a team that beat them this season. So, then how come Oklahoma is favored by 5.5? Probably because of the maturation of Sooners quarterback Spencer Rattler.
Rattler is a much better quarterback now than he was then, which means this game will be a tough one to call and making the prop bets more appealing (odds via Bovada.lv):
Total Points O/U – Iowa State (#16)
Over 26.5 -115
Under 26.5 -115
The Cyclones averaged 34 points a game this season and scored over 30 in every conference win but one this season (they scored just 23 against Texas). If Brock Purdy can throw as he has been for the last five games (which will help open up running lanes for Breece Hall), it is not hard to see them covering the over.
Oklahoma’s defense is good overall, but it is weakest against the pass. Brock Purdy struggled against the Sooner defense last time, but he struggled against everyone early in the year. He will lead the Cyclones to more than 26.5 points—take the over.
Total Points O/U – Oklahoma (#10)
Over 30.5 -135
Under 30.5 Even
The only thing that seemed to hold Spencer Rattler and the Oklahoma offense back early on was their turnover problem. But even then, they still managed to score some points. Iowa State has a good defense, but not so good that they will stop the Sooners altogether.
Iowa State may slow them down, but Oklahoma will still score 30+ points in this game. Take the over.
Between 0 And 20 +6600
Between 21 And 30 +2800
Between 31 And 40 +825
Between 41 And 50 +425
Between 51 And 60 +275
Between 61 And 70 +365
71 And Over +315
Big 12 games are known for lots of points and little to no defense being played. Both Oklahoma and Iowa State do have decent defenses, but neither is great against the pass. While the stats say they are strong against the run, that ranking could be influenced by their struggles against the pass.
What does that mean? It means there is a case to be made for this game not to be a high scoring contest—but it is not a strong case. This game will not be a shootout, but there will be some points on the board.
The official total at Bovada.lv is 58.0. But it would not be shocking to see both teams score in the 30s again in this game. Going with between 51 and 60 would be the safest bet but take between 61 and 70 instead.
If you feel like hedging your bet a little, consider putting something down on 71 and over, too.
Race To 25
Iowa State (#16) +230
Oklahoma (#10) -145
This is a Big 12 game, so fans can likely count on at least 25 points being scored by one of the two teams. With the explosive potential in the Oklahoma offense, it is more likely the Sooners reach 25 points before the Cyclones do.
First Team To Score
Oklahoma (#10) -135
Iowa State (#16) +105
There is a chance that Iowa State could be the first to score, but they will probably lean on Breece Hall early on. While the Sooners defense will not stop him altogether, they will slow him down early and keep Iowa State off the board for a couple of drives (at least).
But with Oklahoma’s ability to score quickly via the passing game, the Sooners will probably be the first team to score.