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College Football Week 12 Odds

Mar 23, 2023 12:07 AM ET | By: matan

LSU at Ole Miss odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=782 /]

LSU Tigers Preview

The Tigers took a big step with their victory at Alabama last week, but they still have work to do before reaping all the rewards that came with that win. Sweeping their final three games, starting with Saturday’s outing at Ole Miss, will put them in the SEC title game, where yet another win likely will earn them a No. 1 seed for the College Football Playoff. Coach Ed Orgeron wants his players to focus on Ole Miss, where he began his coaching career. Quarterback Joe Burrow, who has taken a massive lead in the Heisman race after a 393-yard passing day against the Crimson Tide, apparently is among those getting the message, which is “it’s still all about LSU,” he said. 

Ole Miss Rebels Preview

The big challenge for the Rebels will be trying to slow LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. Ole Miss coach Matt Luke said his defense will try to get pressure on Burrow to get him out of his comfort zone, and the Rebels have had some success in that area with 27 sacks in 10 games. But 12 of those sacks came against three teams — California, Texas A&M, and New Mexico State — and two of those games (Cal, A&M) were losses. Freshman quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has given the Rebels some pop on offense by rushing for 777 yards in seven games, looking like a good fit for the zone-read attack of first-year Ole Miss coordinator Rich Rodriguez.

Trends

LSU is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when they are playing on the road

LSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent recorded more than 400 yards last game

Ole Miss is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games when they passed for less than 200 yards in their last game

Ole Miss is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when they have a winning percentage of less than .400 on the season

The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 Ole Miss games when they have a losing record

Ohio State at Rutgers odds

Nov.16, 2019

Ohio State Buckeyes Preview

Despite a stunning 73-14 victory over Maryland, Ohio State dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 in the CFP rankings this week because the selection committee elevated LSU after its win over Alabama. Maybe the Buckeyes can get back to No. 1 after its big games ahead, although this is not one of them. The Buckeyes rank first nationally in total defense (214.8 yards per game) and fifth in offense (535.9). Quarterback Justin Fields (27 TDs passes, one interception) and running back J.K. Dobbins (1,200 rushing yards) fuel the attack. The defense will be without star defensive end Chase Young for a second game due to an NCAA suspension, but he will return for those big games to end the regular season — vs. Penn State, at Michigan.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Preview

Rutgers is coming off a 38-10 loss at Illinois, when, improbably, the Scarlet Knights hit a high-water mark for points in a Big Ten game. Rutgers has been shut out three times in league play (Iowa, Michigan, Indiana) and managed only a touchdown against Maryland and Minnesota. Add it all up, and that’s 24 total points in six league games. Interim coach Nunzio Campanile doesn’t have much to work with after losing quarterbacks McLane Carter (concussion) and Artur Sitkowski (decision to redshirt). Johnny Langan, a redshirt freshman, has started the past five games; for the season, he is 48 of 89 for 498 yards, with three touchdowns and six interceptions.

Trends

Ohio State is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games when they ran for more than 125 yards in their last game

Rutgers is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when they are averaging less than 150 pass yards per game

Rutgers is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when they average less than 15 points per game

The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 Rutgers games when their opponent is averaging more than 220 rush yards per game

Wake Forest at Clemson odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=783 /]

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Preview

The Demon Deacons’ slim chances for an ACC Atlantic Division title were squashed with last week’s loss to Virginia Tech, but they still have hopes for a spot in a major bowl, and a win or at least an impressive showing against the Tigers would be a huge help. But Clemson won last year’s meeting 63-3, and if the memory of that is not daunting enough, the Deacons will be without two of their top three receivers. Sage Surratt (66 catches, 1,001 yards, 11 touchdowns) is out for the season because of a shoulder injury, and Scotty Washington (37-607-7) will at least miss this week because of an ankle issue.

Clemson Tigers Preview

Clemson has been on a crusade since stopping a 2-point conversion to escape with a 21-20 win at North Carolina on Sept. 28. The Tigers have averaged 52.6 points over their five wins since that close call to extend their winning streak to a nation’s best 25 games. They have a pair of 45-point and 59-point outbursts in that stretch and romped past N.C. State 55-10 their last outing. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has thrown at least three touchdown passes in five consecutive games. He has completed 67.1 percent of his 252 passes for 2,303 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Travis Etienne has topped the 100-yard mark rushing in five consecutive games to reach 1,241 for the season.

Trends

Clemson is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent scored less than 28 points in their last game

Clemson is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent recorded less than 400 yards last game

Wake Forest is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent is averaging more than 225 pass yards per game

The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 Wake Forest games when Wake Forest is averaging more than 450 yards per game

Georgia at Auburn odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=784 /]

Georgia Bulldogs Preview

The Bulldogs will be looking to clinch the SEC East and a berth in the league’s title game while keeping pace for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Despite the offensive prowess of the two teams (Georgia is No. 3 in the SEC in total yardage, Auburn No. 5), fans looking for a high-scoring shootout are likely to be disappointed. The Bulldogs are second in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 10.3 points per game, and fifth in total defense at 260.3 yards allowed per game. The Bulldogs have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. Quarterback Jake Fromm has thrown for 1,858 yards, while D’Andre Swift is approaching a 1,000-yard season on the ground (921 yards).

Auburn Tigers Preview

The Tigers will test the premise of “irresistible force vs. immovable object” with their running game that is producing 219.3 yards per game going against a Georgia defense that is holding opponents to just 74.6 yards on average. Freshman running back D.J. Williams has stepped up for the injured JaTarvious Whitlow by rushing for 271 yards over the past three games — 223 in the last two. Being at home could be a big factor for Auburn’s offense. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix is 77 of 118 passing (65.3 percent) for 1,043 yards at home, but he is only 63 of 130 (48.5 percent) for 755 yards in four road and one neutral-site game.

Trends

Auburn is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when they scored less than 28 points last game

Auburn is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent passed for less than 250 yards last game

Georgia is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when they recorded less than 450 yards in their last game

Georgia is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games when they are spread favorites by less than 10

The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 Georgia games when Georgia ran for less than 250 yards in their last game

Alabama at Mississippi State odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=785 /]

Alabama Crimson Tide Preview

Alabama is coming off a loss to LSU that dropped the Crimson Tide to No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and they might not have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa when they play Mississippi State. Coach Nick Saban said Wednesday it would likely be a game-time decision on Tagovailoa, who played last Saturday a couple of weeks after ankle surgery but was experiencing soreness this week. Whether it’s Tagovailoa or Mac Jones (who started the Arkansas game without any issues) at quarterback, the Tide will be eager to re-state its case for the playoffs by beating the Bulldogs for a 12th consecutive time.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview

The Bulldogs have had a disappointing 4-5 season (2-3 in SEC play) but have one of the league’s top rushing attacks with their average of 217.0 yards per game. Running back Kylin Hill is the SEC’s top rusher with 1,027 yards. They also look to have true freshman quarterback Garrett Shrader back to full health again. Shrader and senior Tommy Stevens have been rotating at the position, and both have had to contend with injuries. Shrader has rushed for 504 yards in seven games, while Stevens has passed for 687 in six. Coach Joe Moorhead has an “or” between the two at No. 1 on the depth chart.

Trends

Mississippi State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent ran for less than 125 yards last game

Mississippi State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when they are playing at home

The Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 Alabama games when Alabama recorded more than 450 yards in their last game

Arizona at Oregon odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=786 /]

Arizona Wildcats Preview

Arizona has dropped four in a row, mostly due to its porous defense, which has allowed an average of 47.3 points during the skid. The defense will be working its second game under interim coordinator Chuck Cecil, who was elevated from analyst when head coach Kevin Sumlin fired Marcel Yates (and his linebackers coach). What Cecil might do after a bye week is a bit of an X-factor, as is the quarterback situation, with true freshman Grant Gunnell recently taking time away from inconsistent-but-sometimes-spectacular senior Khalil Tate. Look for both to play, no matter who starts. Bright spot: Running back J.J. Taylor ran for 212 yards on Oregon last season, when Arizona stomped on the Ducks 44-15.

Oregon Ducks Preview

Oregon is in the College Football Playoffs picture, coming in on an eight-game winning streak after blowing a lead and losing its opener to Auburn. The Ducks might need some help to get into the final four, but they can help themselves with style points, which means it’s in their best interest to look dominant. Quarterback Justin Herbert (24 touchdowns, two interceptions) has emerging help at wideout in now-healthy Penn State transfer Juwan Johnson (106 yards, three TDs against USC on Nov. 2). Oregon should make life difficult for the Arizona quarterbacks, as the Ducks lead the country with 17 interceptions and are first in the conference with 2.89 sacks per game.

Trends

Arizona is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent is averaging more than 180 rush yards per game

Oregon is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent passed for more than 200 yards last game

The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 Oregon games when their opponent averages more than 30 points per game

UCLA at Utah odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=787 /]

UCLA Bruins Preview

The UCLA Bruins looked lifeless under second-year coach Chip Kelly earlier this season, but here they are, still playing for the Pac-12 South title in mid-November. UCLA has won three in a row and will play in the league title game if it wins out, with games against USC and Cal to follow this week’s tough matchup. Running back Joshua Kelly has been part of the resurgence with 466 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in the past three games. Overall, UCLA has rushed for at least 200 yards in five consecutive games, the first time it has done that since the 1978 season. It sets up a strength-on-strength clash, as Utah is first nationally in rushing defense (56.0 yards per game).

Utah Utes Preview

Utah comes in on a five-game winning streak and still alive for the College Football Playoffs. The Utes were off last week, which came at a good time, allowing quarterback Tyler Huntley to regain his mobility after being limited because of a knee sprain suffered on Oct. 19. He is completing 73.8 percent of his passes, a perfect complement to Utah’s strength up front on the line and the running of senior running back Zack Moss, who has 828 yards and is closing in on his third consecutive 1,000-yard season. Defensive end Bradlee Anae has eight sacks to lead a stout line, while veterans such as defensive back Julian Blackmon patrol the back end of a unit that is eighth nationally in passing efficiency defense (107.25 rating).

Trends

UCLA is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games when they are averaging more than 140 rush yards per game

Utah is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when their opponent is averaging more than 400 yards per game

Utah is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent scored more than 31 points in their last game

The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 UCLA games when UCLA ran for more than 200 yards in their last game

Minnesota at Iowa odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=788 /]

Minnesota Gophers Preview

Minnesota won over some critics with its 31-26 victory over then-No. 4 Penn State last week, which improved the Gophers to 9-0 for the first time in 115 years. There are still some high hurdles to clear in this magical season, but the offense keeps making leaps forward, helped by quarterback Tanner Morgan, who was 18 of 20 for 339 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Nittany Lions. A big-play receiving corps is led by Rashod Bateman (38 catches, 847 yards, seven TDs) and Tyler Johnson (50-730-8). Throw in running back Rodney Smith, who has 969 yards and is averaging 5.5 per carry, this is a balanced attack that has scored at least 31 points in six conference games.

Iowa Hawkeyes Preview

With three Big Ten losses already, Iowa hasn’t quite had the season many expected, but it hasn’t missed by much. The Hawkeyes have fallen to Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin — all ranked teams — by a total of 14 points. This will be their final chance to knock off a ranked Big Ten foe at home, and they will try to establish their bread-and-butter running game behind the trio of Makhi Sargent, Toren Young and Tyler Goodson. They combined for just 95 yards last week against Wisconsin, but there might be more room to run against Minnesota. Iowa’s defense, meanwhile, has yielded just 12 touchdowns, the third lowest-mark in the country.

Trends

Iowa is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent is averaging less than 250 pass yards per game

Iowa is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when they are spread favorites by less than 10

Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when they are averaging more than 400 yards per game

Minnesota is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games when their opponent averages more than 24 points per game

The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 Iowa games when Iowa has more than 6 wins

Indiana at Penn State odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=789 /]

Indiana Hoosiers Preview

Indiana has won four consecutive games but will have to play the rest of the season without redshirt freshman quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who underwent season-ending surgery related to his collarbone after the team’s last game, a 34-3 win over Northwestern on Nov. 2. After a bye week, junior Peyton Ramsey steps in with starting experience, including all of last season. He threw for a career-high 351 yards at Nebraska on Oct. 26 when Penix sat out, but the concern with Ramsey is interceptions — he was picked off 13 times last season. Indiana is ranked in the AP poll (No. 24) for the first time since 1994, but it did not make the CFP rankings.

Penn State Nittany Lions Preview

Not only is Penn State trying to bounce back from its first loss of the season — at Minnesota last Saturday — but quarterback Sean Clifford will be seeking redemption after being picked off three times, including once in the end zone with 61 seconds left in a 31-26 loss. He should have more help in the running game, with Noah Cain expected back after missing last week with an ankle injury, although Journey Brown ran for 124 yards and two scores in his place. Leading tackler Micah Parsons was benched at the start of last week’s game, but the sophomore linebacker ended up with 11 tackles and is back in coach James Franklin’s good graces.

Trends

Indiana is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when they passed for more than 200 yards in their last game

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when the points total is less than 55

The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 Penn State games when their opponent ran for less than 250 yards last game

Oklahoma at Baylor odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=790 /]

Oklahoma Sooners Preview

Oklahoma is in good shape to reach the Big 12 title game — even with a loss this week to league-leading Baylor — but it would like to keep pushing toward the College Football Playoffs, which is slipping from its grasp. A loss to Kansas State followed by a one-point win over Iowa State leaves the Sooners needing significant help. What OU can do in the meantime is keep impressive with offense and quarterback Jalen Hurts, who leads the nation with a passing efficiency rating of 219.7. The Sooners have scored at least 34 points in every game — and at least 41 in eight of nine.

Baylor Bears Preview

Baylor, although undefeated, still trails Oklahoma in the CFP rankings, with skepticism coming from a soft nonconference schedule and a series of close calls that indicate the floor might soon give way underneath the Bears’ feet. Give them all due credit, of course, for being tough, strong on defense and knowing how to win — four of their six Big 12 victories have come by a total of 14 points, including a pair of multiple-overtime games. A key is for Baylor to avoid playing catch-up to the high-scoring Sooners; the Bears have allowed a scant 41 first-half points all season.

Trends

Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when they are the underdog

Baylor is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games when their opponent recorded more than 400 yards last game

The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 Oklahoma games when the points total is less than 70

Florida at Missouri odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=791 /]

Florida Gators Preview

Temperatures in the 40s are awaiting the Gators in Columbia, Mo., which is up to 36 degrees colder than what the Gators are used to playing in this season. The average kickoff temperature of a Florida game is 76.3 degrees, with a low of 56 degrees at South Carolina. But coach Dan Mullen scoffs at the notion that will come into play in the SEC East matchup, saying if you’re “a competitor,” the conditions don’t matter. The Gators retain a mathematical chance for a spot in the SEC Championship Game but would need Georgia to lose both of its remaining games at Auburn and home against Texas A&M to have a chance.

Missouri Tigers Preview

Tigers coach Barry Odom is just glad to be playing at home after playing three consecutive road games — and losing all three. That made them 0-4 on the road (counting an opening loss at Wyoming), but they are 5-0 at home and need one more win to reach bowl eligibility. The good news is that Odom expects to have quarterback Kelly Bryant available as the Tigers go for a third consecutive win over the Gators. The Clemson transfer missed last week’s 27-0 loss at Georgia with a hamstring injury. Unless there is a setback, Odom said he anticipates Bryant (230.6 yards per game passing, 25.6 rushing) to be “playing and playing well.”

Trends

Florida is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when they recorded more than 400 yards in their last game

Florida is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games when their opponent averages less than 30 points per game

Missouri is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when they are playing at home

The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 Missouri games when their opponent is averaging more than 225 pass yards per game

Wisconsin at Nebraska odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=792 /]

Wisconsin Badgers Preview

The main storyline with Wisconsin is often junior running back Jonathan Taylor, and that is again the case this week. He is coming off a game in which he ran 31 times for 250 yards — both season-highs — in a win over Iowa that ended a two-game skid for the Badgers. And he sure does like seeing Nebraska’s “Blackshirts” on the other side of the line of scrimmage, given that he has 470 career yards in two games against the Huskers. He is complemented by the precision passing of Jack Coan (73.2 percent) while the Badgers lock down on D, giving up 12.6 points and 231.4 yards per game.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Preview

Nebraska’s season of high expectations in the second year under coach Scott Frost has fizzled into a 4-5 record that includes a current three-game slide to Minnesota, Indiana and Purdue. The up-tempo, spread offense hasn’t lit scoreboards on fire (26.3 points per game, 82nd in the country), although sophomore Adrian Martinez remains on the most dangerous quarterbacks around. Nebraska has lost six games in the rivalry; turning that around will have to include a better effort on defense, which has allowed 103 points in the three-game losing streak.

Trends

Nebraska is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when they have a road losing streak of more than 2 games

The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 Wisconsin games when their opponent is averaging less than 225 pass yards per game

Michigan State at Michigan odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=793 /]

Michigan State Spartans Preview

Michigan State takes a four-game losing streak and all kind of offensive woes into this rivalry game, with coach Mark Dantonio drawing heat for not modernizing his attack like many of his conference peers have. The Spartans are a woeful 106th nationally in scoring (23.1 points per game), and the defense has let them down, too, as in last week’s 37-34 loss to Illinois. Quarterback Brian Lewerke has two touchdown passes and six interceptions in the four-game skid, with the turnovers being especially costly in a ball-control kind of scheme. Freshman running back Elijah Collins (170 yards last week) looks like hope for down the road.

Michigan Wolverines Preview

It seemed like all the pieces could come together for Michigan this season, but Ohio State is still stealing most of the oxygen in the Big Ten East. The Wolverines, though, won their last two before a bye — including a win over Notre Dame — and hope to be hitting their stride with this rivalry game on Saturday and the Buckeyes looming at the end of the season. Freshman running back Zach Charbonnet has sparked the offense, with two touchdowns in each of the past three games. The defense should be stout against Michigan State after holding Notre Dame and Maryland to 21 total points.

Trends

The Over is 7-1 in the last 8 Michigan games when Michigan recorded less than 450 yards in their last game

The Under is 8-0 in the last 8 Michigan State games when Michigan State are spread underdogs by less than 45

Navy at Notre Dame odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=794 /]

Navy Midshipmen Preview

The Midshipmen will take a five-game winning streak to South Bend for a game that features both teams ranked at the time of their meeting for the first time since 1978, when No. 15 Notre Dame beat No. 11 Navy 27-7. Navy has powered its way to a No. 23 ranking with its traditional triple-option attack, which leads the nation in rushing at 357.9 yards per game. Quarterback Malcolm Perry leads the way with 1,042 yards (tied for No. 11 in the nation) and 16 rushing touchdowns (tied for sixth). He also has passed for 722 yards — about 90 per game — with five more scores. The Middies already have more than doubled their win total from last year (3-10) with a 7-1 record.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Preview

Notre Dame’s run defense has held opponents to a so-so average of 155.6 yards through nine games but will get a severe test from Navy’s triple-option game. Coach Brian Kelly said the Midshipmen’s ability to make quick adjustments is just one of the issues his Irish must counter. The Irish have won their last two games after the big loss to Michigan, cruising past Duke 38-7 last week. Quarterback Ian Book is a combined 47 of 85 passing for 624 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions in those two games after struggling against the Wolverines (8 of 25 for 73 yards and a touchdown). ND will be without star defensive end Julian Okwara (fractured fibula) the rest of the season.

Trends

Navy is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent is averaging less than 220 rush yards per game

Navy is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games when their opponent averages less than 35 points per game

Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when they are spread favorites by less than 10

The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 Notre Dame games when their opponent scored more than 42 points in their last game

Cincinnati at South Florida odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=795 /]

Cincinnati Bearcats Preview

The Bearcats are looking to extend their winning streak to eight games and clinch at least a share of the American Athletic Conference East Division. But coach Luke Fickell remembers the last time his Bearcats visited USF, as they were tagged with a 33-3 loss in Fickell’s first season in 2017. The Bearcats remained unbeaten in AAC play with their fifth win last week, a 48-3 rout of UConn, but they haven’t won at Raymond James stadium since 2011, a stretch of three consecutive losses. Cincinnati relies on an opportunistic defense to push games in their favor despite a modest offense; the Bearcats have 21 takeaways, which is tied for third in the country.

South Florida Bulls Preview

The Bulls dropped under .500 at 4-5 after their 17-7 loss to Temple last week and need to win two of their last three games to get to bowl eligibility. With Memphis and a trip to UCF following the game against Cincy, that looks like a tall task. The Bulls gave up nine sacks in their loss to the Owls, but they hope to get left tackle Donovan Jennings on the field this week. He has started the past seven games but injured an ankle against Temple. Tight end Jacob Mathias is expected back after sitting out last week with a virus. Redshirt freshman quarterback Jordan McCloud had a career high 225 passing yards last week despite playing under constant pressure.

Trends

Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent is averaging less than 200 pass yards per game

Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games when they are averaging less than 220 rush yards per game

South Florida is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when they have a losing record

South Florida is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when they ran for less than 125 yards in their last game

The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 South Florida games when they have a losing record

Memphis at Houston odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=796 /]

Memphis Tigers Preview

It’s back to work for the Tigers, who had a bye week following their victory over previously unbeaten SMU to assume the driver’s seat in the American Athletic Conference West race. The Tigers are half-game back of SMU and Navy in the standings but have beaten both and would have the advantage over both in case of ties. Receiver Antonio Gibson, who says he “kind of” likes running back but is a “wideout guy at heart,” is coming off a huge game after setting a school record with 386 all-purpose yards against SMU with 159 on kickoff returns (including a 97-yarder), 130 receiving (with a 50-yard touchdown reception) and 97 rushing (78-yard touchdown).

Houston Cougars Preview

Coach Dana Holgorsen is complaining about the way a schedule that could feature up to six ranked teams before it’s over was set up for his team. Despite a losing record, the Cougars have been competitive in several games, taking a 17-7 lead against UCF before losing 44-29, being outscored 17-6 in the fourth quarter in a 38-23 loss to Cincinnati, and coming up short in a 34-31 loss to SMU. One more loss would deny the Cougars outright bowl eligibility for the first time since 2012. Running back Mulbah Car has rushed for 268 yards in the last two games, but isn’t likely to play again to preserve a redshirt season. He has 375 yards in four games.

Trends

Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent recorded more than 450 yards last game

Memphis is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent is averaging less than 225 pass yards per game

The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 Houston games when Houston are spread underdogs by less than 12

Texas at Iowa State odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=797 /]

Texas Longhorns Preview

Texas upended Kansas State last week and has a chance to finish with a flourish because it is finally getting its secondary closer to full health. Safeties Caden Sterns and B.J. Foster returned last week, when the Longhorns allowed only 304 yards in the 27-24 victory. Another safety, Chris Brown, has been cleared to play this week after recovering from a broken right arm. The offense hasn’t taken any weeks off, averaging 37.8 points per game, as the Longhorns are still making a push for the Big 12 title game behind the leadership and moxie of quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who has 3,042 yards of total offense.

Iowa State Cyclones Preview

Few good teams have endured as many painful losses as Iowa State — by one point to Iowa, two to Baylor, a touchdown against Oklahoma State and one point at Oklahoma last week. The Cyclones will try fill their tank for another big game this week, looking for a signature victory. Sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy led the charge last week, with 102 passing yards and three touchdowns in the final 16 minutes. With his help, Iowa State is on a school-record pace for offense (479.2 yards per game) and have posted more than 400 yards of offense in eight of nine games. Purdy, who has four games this season with more than 340 yards passing, will test that healthier Texas secondary.

Trends

Iowa State is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent is averaging more than 300 pass yards per game

Iowa State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when the points total is more than 55

Texas is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when their opponent ran for less than 200 yards last game

The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 Texas games when their opponent is averaging less than 160 rush yards per game

New Mexico at Boise State odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=798 /]

New Mexico Lobos Preview

The Lobos will be playing for the first time since the death of defensive end Nahje Flowers on Nov. 5; their Nov. 9 date against Air Force was pushed back a couple of weeks. The Lobos will take a six-game losing streak into the game at Boise, with all five of their Mountain West losses in the stretch coming by double digits. One bright spot has been the play of senior running back Ahmari Davis, who has rushed for 823 yards and seven touchdowns with a career-high 200 yards on just 16 carries against Hawaii on Oct. 26. The Lobos have averaged a tick over 200 yards a game rushing but managed only 109 at Nevada in their last outing.

Boise State Broncos Preview

Coach Bryan Harsin isn’t happy with the criticism of his Broncos after a pair of closer-than-expected wins and a loss to BYU in their last three games, urging fans to “keep everything in perspective a little bit.” Unbeaten in Mountain West play, the Broncos gave up 42 points to San Jose State in a 10-point win and allowed Wyoming to control most of the game before winning in overtime 20-17 last week. Of more immediate concern for Harsin is the status of his quarterbacks. Freshman Hank Bachmeier has missed two of the last three games with hip and shoulder issues. Backup Chase Cord had an issue with his hand against Wyoming.

Trends

Boise State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when they scored less than 24 points last game
Boise State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when they recorded less than 450 yards in their last game
The Over is 8-1 in the last 9 New Mexico games when their opponent scored less than 21 points in their last game

Kansas at Oklahoma State odds

Nov.16, 2019

[table id=799 /]

Kanas Jayhawks Preview

First-year Kansas coach Les Miles is returning to Stillwater, where he coached from 2001 to 2004 before starting his successful campaign at LSU. One of his former assistants at Oklahoma State — Mike Gundy — took over the head coaching role when Miles left and is still in place, so that reunion storyline is prominent this week. So, too, is the production of running back Pooka Williams, who has 765 yards in eight games and is trying to hit 2,000 career yards as a sophomore — something a guy named Gale Sayers also did at Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming of a 38-10 loss to Kansas State but beat Texas Tech and took Texas to the final seconds before that.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Preview

Oklahoma State comes in after consecutive victories over Iowa State and TCU by identical 34-27 scores. As if typical with a Mike Gundy team, the offense rocks (500.0 yards, 37.1 points per game), while the defense struggles to stop anyone (438.2 yards, 29.3 points per game allowed). Oklahoma State — like Kansas — is coming off a bye, with Chuba Hubbard hoping to pick up where he left off. He ran for 223 yards against TCU and leads the nation with 178.2 rushing yards per game. Star receiver Tylan Wallace (knee) is out for the season. Dillon Stoner stepped up against TCU with 93 receiving yards and two scores.

Trends

Kansas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when they have a losing record

Kansas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent is averaging more than 400 yards per game

Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when they passed for less than 250 yards in their last game

The Over is 8-1 in the last 9 Oklahoma State games when their opponent scored less than 28 points in their last game

West Virginia at Kansas State odds

Nov.16, 2019

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West Virginia Mountaineers Preview

West Virginia is in the midst of a hard fall, having lost five consecutive games and failing to score more than two touchdowns in any of the past four outings. Perhaps there will be a chance at quarterback this week for first-year coach Neal Brown. Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall hasn’t been the answer — 12 touchdowns, 10 interceptions — and he was replaced in last week’s loss to Texas Tech by Jarret Doege, a transfer from Bowling Green. Doege, making his debut with the Mountaineers, completed 11 of 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown. West Virginia’s offense is 110th nationally in scoring (21.1 points per game).

Kansas State Wildcats Preview

Kansas State was picked to finish ninth in the 10-team Big 12, so it still seems like the 6-3 Wildcats are living the good life, despite a 27-24 loss at Texas last week that snapped a three-game winning streak that included a win over Oklahoma. K-State lacks a “wow” factor, but balance and limiting mistakes (only eight turnovers) have gone a long way. Quarterback Skylar Thompson has done a nice job, too, passing for a career-high 253 yards against Texas, although K-State’s favored mode of transportation is the ground. Thompson is a threat in that area, as evidenced by his 127 yards against Kansas a week earlier.

Trends

Kansas State is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games when they passed for more than 125 yards in their last game
The Over is 6-2 in the last 8 West Virginia games when their opponent has more than 4 wins

Appalachian State at Georgia State odds

Nov.16, 2019

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Appalachian State Mountaineers Preview

The Mountaineers sometimes have problems handling success — they lost their first game after being ranked for the first time last year, and this year they lost their second after rising to No. 22 in the poll — but coach Eliah Drinkwitz is confident his players have their minds right after their victory over South Carolina. He said he doesn’t see “any issue” with his players putting that win — their second of the season over a Power 5 conference member — behind them as they look forward to Georgia State. The Mountaineers can clinch the Sun Belt Conference East Division with a win and earn a berth in the league’s championship game.

Georgia State Panthers Preview

The Panthers aren’t used to playing meaningful games in November with a history that features only two winning records in six seasons as members of the Sun Belt Conference. But with a 3-2 league record, they can take a step toward at least a share of the East Division title and spot in the Sun Belt Championship Game with a win over the Mountaineers. They would still have to win closing games against South Alabama and Georgia Southern to be assured of that, but it’s still heady stuff. The bad news is they lost starting quarterback Dan Ellington to a knee injury in last week’s loss to Louisiana-Monroe and will be starting a true freshman, Cornelious Brown, at the position this week.