College Football Playoffs Odds: We Know the Top Three, But Can Georgia Hold Four
As the season goes on, there are two things all college football fans hope for—that the best teams make it into the playoffs and that the picture on who those teams are becomes crystal clear by the time the regular season comes to an end.
While the picture isn’t crystal clear following the end of the regular season schedule, it is not too blurry.
Heading into last weekend, Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson were as close to a lock as you could get. All they had to do was not get upset by the inferior opponent they were playing—and no one was ever in danger of that happening.
As a result, LSU and Ohio State saw their College Football Playoffs odds improve to -10000 (via PointsBet.com). That translates into a 99.01 percent chance of making it in. Clemson destroyed another soft opponent, so their odds improved to -5000, which gives them a 98.04 percent chance.
Then there is the No. 4 team, Georgia. While they destroyed their soft opponent, Georgia Tech, 52-7, they didn’t look as good as the top three. Their college football playoff odds are still good (+225), but their odds aren’t among the top four anymore.
With how several games played out last weekend, several fringe contenders are no longer in the running. Minnesota’s dream came to an end courtesy of Wisconsin. After an exciting Iron Bowl loss to Auburn, the College Football Playoffs will not feature Alabama for the first time.
So, No. 1 and 2 are pretty much set, and No. 3 is pretty darn close. While No. 4 is still up in the air, we have a good idea who is still in the running.
Best Sportsbook 2019
College Football Playoff Odds: Four Teams Vying For One Spot
If Wisconsin were to pull off an epic upset and beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, they would have a decent case to jump from No. 8 to No. 4. But PointsBet.com’s oddsmakers didn’t see it as enough of a possibility
to bother giving Wisconsin college football playoff odds.
But for some crazy reason, they still gave Oregon odds (+8000). As the No. 13 team in the rankings and with two losses, even if they crush Utah and everyone else in front of them loses, they don’t have a case that justifies even the thought of including them in the playoffs.
However, No. 7 Baylor (+700), No. 6 Oklahoma (-115), and No. 5 Utah (+325) have a decent shot of making it in.
Of course, there is one thing that has to happen for any of them to have a shot. Georgia has to lose to LSU. The Tigers are currently 7.5-point favorites, so oddsmakers don’t seem too confident in the Bulldogs. With how Jake Fromm has been playing and D’Andre Swift dealing with a shoulder injury, it is kind of hard seeing them pull off the upset.
Should they win, the final four will likely remain but with Ohio State at No. 1, Clemson at No. 2, Georgia as the No. 3, and LSU as the No. 4 team. On the off-chance, Clemson falls to Virginia—Dabo Swinney is right. The committee will boot the Tigers as fast as they can.
Clemson is a 28-point favorite, though. So, it is likely safe to assume they are in.
If/when Georgia loses, it could get a little tricky. If Utah wins, there is a good chance they get left out even though they are the No. 5 team. Whoever wins the Big 12 Championship, Oklahoma or Baylor will have a better win than Utah. Both the Bears and Sooners are in the top ten (No. 7 and 6). Utah’s opponent, Oregon, is the No. 13 team.
Between Utah and Baylor, the Bears may have a slightly better resume. Each team’s conference championship game win will be their only victory over a ranked opponent. But Utah’s loss to USC will look a little worse than Baylor’s to a No. 10 Oklahoma team.
Should the Sooners beat Baylor again, that will give them four wins over ranked opponents. So, for them, it will be a win-and-you’re-in kind of game (regardless of what Utah does).
Of course, no matter which team wins, they will likely lose in the first round to Ohio State. Making it in and having a shot is a lot better than sitting at home and wishing you did.