ACC Odds Report: The Devils is in the Details as Duke is Back on Top
Entering last week, the Louisville Cardinals had a virtual two-game lead on the Duke Blue Devils.
But after Louisville’s winless week, it is now the 6th ranked Blue Devils (22-3, 12-2 ACC) that are back atop the ACC, thanks to a big 70-65 victory over 8th ranked Florida State and a 94-60 blowout win over Notre Dame.
Duke’s winning streak is up to seven games now, and they’re slowly molding into the Duke Blue Devils we’ve grown accustomed to seeing right before the month of March.
The Blue Devils were once again led by the fantastic inside-outside tandem of Tre Jones and Vernon Carey Jr.
Carey has been an instrumental part to Duke’s recent surge up the standings, and the young freshman sensation needed just 24 minutes of action to score 21 points against Notre Dame.
When Carey can avoid foul trouble, there are few players in the country that can impact a game in the way Carey Jr. can.
Meanwhile, Tre Jones continues his excellent play during his sophomore season, as the young point guard chipped in 19 points, seven boards and six assists in the victory over Notre Dame.
Louisville and Florida State now have to hope that Duke stumbles in their last six games of the season, of which features only one game on the schedule against a team above .500 in conference play (at Virginia, Feb. 29).
Otherwise we are probably looking at another Coach K ACC regular season title, with a very strong possibility of a No. 1 seeded Duke team in the dance yet again.
From a betting perspective, this week oddsmakers have the Blue Devils as the short favorite to win the ACC Tournament (ACC Odds: +275).
Their odds to get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament have improved to +150 and their odds to win the National Championship remain unchanged from last week at +1100.
February 19: at NC State (16-9, 7-7 ACC); February 22: vs. Virginia Tech (15-10, 6-8 ACC)
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Louisville’s Tough Week Delivers Major Blow to Cardinals’ ACC Title Hopes
The Cardinals went on the road for the first time in eleven days last week, and the results were not ideal for Louisville backers.
The week began with a 64-58 road loss at the hands of Georgia Tech, and then concluded with a 77-62 blowout loss at the hands of Clemson on Saturday.
As a result, the No. 11 Cardinals (21-5, 12-3 ACC) saw their 10-game winning streak come to an abrupt end and they enter this week suddenly on a two-game skid.
More importantly than that though, they’re now staring up at Duke in the ACC standings, as we touched upon above.
An earlier 79-73 victory over the Dukies gives Louisville hope of a share of the ACC regular season crown, but they do have the tougher schedule of the two teams, as road dates with Florida State and Virginia still await them to close out the year.
Despite Louisville’s difficult week, oddsmakers still have the Cardinals at +300 to win the March ACC Tournament and at +275 to get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Louisville odds to win the National Championship are listed at +1500 this week.
February 19: vs. Syracuse (14-11, 7-7 ACC); February 22: vs. North Carolina (10-15, 3-11 ACC)
Seminoles Odds to Win the ACC: Florida State Still Lurking in the Shadows
The Seminoles are coming off a mixed week, as they suffered a respectable 70-65 road loss to Duke before hanging on for dear life at home to knock off a pesky Syracuse team.
As a result, not much changed for Leonard Hamilton’s Noles.
Florida State remains ranked No. 8 overall in this week’s rankings and should Duke and Louisville stumble yet again, the door is still open for the Seminoles to claim a share of the ACC regular season crown, as they remain one game out of first in the conference.
Oddsmakers also didn’t fret too much about the Noles five-point loss to the Dukies, as they remain +300 favorites to win the ACC Tournament and +2000 to win the Natty.
February 18: vs. Pitt (15-11, 6-9 ACC); February 22: at NC State (16-9, 7-7 ACC)
Virginia Narrowly Wins Back-to-Back Games to Boost At-Large Bid Chances
The defending National Champs are not going to win the ACC regular season title for a third straight season without some serious faceplanting at the top, but they did give their at-large bid chance a major boost after sweeping the week with wins over Notre Dame and North Carolina.
Tournament projections entering last week had the ACC getting three teams into the field of 68, a shocking number considering the depth of this conference we typically see each season.
After winning back-to-back games, Joe Lunardi has Virginia (17-7, 9-5 ACC) as one of his last four byes, meaning as of this writing the ‘Hoos seem like they are on the safer side of the bubble for now.
But as Louisville just showed, things in the ACC can change in a hurry, and another bad loss or two could have Tony Bennett’s squad in need of a good run in the ACC Tournament to secure another trip to the dance.
Good news for the Cavs? Virginia closes the season with four of their last six games coming against teams that are sub-.500 in conference play.
The bad news? Their other two games come against Duke and Louisville.
Virginia will be a very interesting team to monitor down the stretch.
Oddsmakers slightly dropped the Cavs (+650 ACC Odds) after being at +600 a week ago. They remain as 60-to-1 long shots to repeat as National Champions.
February 19: vs. Boston College (13-13, 7-8 ACC); February 22: at Pitt (15-11, 6-9 ACC)
ACC Odds and ACC Betting Nuggets of Note
- Duke OVER is 8-2 in L10 games
- Louisville OVER is 5-2 in L7 games
- Florida State OVER is 8-3 in L11 games
- Virginia OVER is 4-2 in L6 games
- NC State UNDER is 8-2 in L10 games
- Syracuse is 2-6 ATS in home conference games this season
- Clemson OVER is 9-4 in L13 games
- Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in L7 games (94-60 loss to Duke ended 6-0 ATS run)
- Boston College is 5-2 ATS in L7 games
- Georgia Tech is 4-2 ATS in L6 games
- Pitt is 2-6 ATS in L8 games
- Virginia Tech is 1-7 ATS in L8 games (67-57 win over Pitt ended 0-7 ATS run)
- Miami is 4-2 ATS in L6 games
- Wake Forest is 7-2 ATS in L9 games
- North Carolina has not covered in two straight after 5-1 ATS run