Why Michigan State’s Big 10 Conference Odds are Drowning Out the Buckeyes
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By Travis Pulver
When the college basketball season got underway, life was looking good for fans of the Big Ten. Ohio State was looking like a national title contender on the gridiron and Michigan State was the preseason favorite to win the national title in college basketball.
Fast forward to the present, and neither is true. Ohio State finished the college football season ranked No. 3 in the nation and Michigan State isn’t even in the top-ten anymore.
But while the Spartans may no longer be national title favorites, their odds are not bad (+1500). They are, however, still favored to win their conference (6-1), the Big Ten (+375, via DraftKings). However, while they may be leading the way in the Big Ten, they are not the only team with good odds.
Despite their conference struggles early on (2-5), Ohio State still has favorable odds to win the conference (+375). Maryland has had a tough go to start conference play (4-3) but remains in contention with +400 odds.
Michigan got off to a good start this season with seven straight wins. But things have been rough for the Wolverines since losing to then-No.1 Louisville back on December 3. Including that game, they are 4-6 in their last ten and just 2-4 in conference play.
The Wolverines still have promising odds at +450 but will need to turn things around soon if they are going to have a legitimate chance.
Big 10 Conference Title Odds
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The Longest Big 10 Conference Title Odds
Through Week 11, the two teams right on Michigan State’s tail in the standings, Illinois and Rutgers (both are 5-2 in conference play), are not getting respect from oddsmakers. DraftKings has
Illinois with +6600 odds to win the Big Ten.
Only Nebraska (2-5) and Northwestern (1-6) have longer odds (+12500).
The only other teams with winning records in conference play through Week 11 are Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana (all three have 4-3 records). Of the three, Iowa has the best odds to win the conference at +1200 followed by Wisconsin at +1500. Indiana trails with +3000.
Of the remaining three teams, Penn State (3-4), Purdue (3-4), and Minnesota (4-4), two of them have good odds (Penn State– +800; Purdue–+900). It doesn’t look like the Gophers basketball team is expected to have as good a year as the football team (+3000).
So—who should you bet on?
Should you just go with the favorite and take Michigan State? Well, the Spartans are led by senior point guard Cassius Winston who happens to be the favorite to win the Wooden Award this season (+450). Whether he has the supporting case he needs remains to be seen.
But no one would fault you for going with them. However, in doing so, while you are going for the easy win (which is always better than any loss), they only have a 21.05 percent chance of winning the conference.
It might be a little hard to rationalize betting on Penn State, Purdue, Michigan, or Ohio State right now despite their odds not being too bad. They were expected to be better than they have been so far, but their losing records are hard to ignore.
Right now, there just isn’t a single team standing out above the rest which may make it a little more inviting to take a chance on one of the two upstarts Rutgers or Illinois. Neither were supposed to be as good as they have been which could mean one of two things:
- They are going to be this season’s surprise competitors.
- They will hit a wall at some point in the near future and regress back to what was expected of them.
There just isn’t an easy answer for predicting the Big Ten at the moment. That also means there is no safe bet for who is going to win the Big Ten this season.
