NCAAB News

The SEC Odds Tracker as of February 11, 2020

SEC Conference Odds Report: Watch Out for the Comeback Kings of Auburn

By: Brent Booher 

Bruce Pearl’s No. 11 Auburn Tigers (21-2, 8-2 SEC) are earning quite the reputation of being a team with a flair for the dramatic. 

NCAA Basketball: Louisiana State at Auburn

Last week, the Tigers erased a late 11-point deficit to Arkansas before defeating them in overtime 79-76.  

If that wasn’t enough of an adrenaline rush for Pearl, his Tigers’ team followed that up with J’Von McCormick’s running floater with 0.1 remaining on the clock to complete another come-from-behind 91-90 overtime rally.   

The pair of overtime heroics paired with LSU’s first two losses of the year vaulted Auburn into a three-way tie (though Auburn does hold tie-breakers over LSU and Kentucky) for first-place in the conference.  

Not a bad week to be a Tigers fan.  

In the futures market this week, Auburn’s SEC odds are listed at +275 to win the SEC Tournament.   

You may also want to consider their chances at landing a 1-seed, as Auburn is listed at +250 to do that.   

While it would take a lot for Auburn to climb back into the conversation for a 1-seed, if they continue to win games in the manner they are, you can’t rule it out completely. 

And if you want to further roll the dice on Pearl’s Auburn crew, they’re currently +500 to get back to the Final Four and +2800 to win the National Championship. 

Up this week for Auburn is a rivalry game against Alabama on Wednesday (Feb. 12), before heading to the road to face Missouri on Saturday (Feb. 15).  

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LSU Odds Rise After Dropping Two Road Games

The LSU Tigers entered last week as the lone unbeaten team in the conference with a perfect 8-0 record in the SEC. 

The LSU Tigers enter this week at 8-2 and in a three-way tie for first. 

That’s how quickly the landscape of college basketball changes this season. 

Despite a shocking 99-90 loss at the hands of a Vanderbilt squad that had lost 26-straight conference games, LSU still showed a lot of promising signs in their two losses that illustrated they are a dangerous team to run into come March. 

Skylar Mays, for one, played his best game of the season in the loss to Auburn when he chipped in 30 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds.  Freshman forward Trendon Watford also had a great outing in the loss to Vandy, and once again Will Wade looks to have a very athletic and talented group.  

With games against Mizzou and Alabama on the horizon, look for LSU to get back to their winning ways soon.  

In terms of futures betting, LSU’s SEC Odds are currently listed at +500.  If you believe LSU’s basketball team will throw another championship trophy in the school’s trophy case this season, they’re currently listed at 40-to-1 to cut the nets down in Atlanta.  

Kentucky Odds: Calipari Has His ‘Cats Right Where He Wants Them 

With all the attention on the ways Auburn is winning basketball games, we’ve all kind of forgotten about Kentucky, which, in college basketball, is something that’s hard to do.  

Nonetheless, it’s almost mid-February and wouldn’t you know... John Calipari has a first-place basketball team in the SEC again! 

12th ranked Kentucky (18-5, 8-2 SEC) bounced back from their Feb. 1 road loss to Auburn with a pair of wins over Mississippi State and Tennessee last week, and thanks to that LSU stumble, finds itself right at the top of the pack yet again. 

While this isn’t your usual Kentucky team that’s littered with future NBA talent, they are your usual brand of Calipari basketball:  long, athletic and very well coached. 

Because of their name recognition, the ‘Cats will rarely offer great value on the futures market and this week is no different.   

This week they’re still the odds-on favorite to win the SEC Tournament at +250 and are listed at +2000 to win the National Championship (tied with Louisville, Florida State and Maryland) – which indicates that while the public may be overlooking Kentucky, oddsmakers aren’t doing that just yet. 

Sizing Up the Rest of the SEC Odds 

Entering the week, Joe Lunardi has the SEC projected to get five teams into the dance with Arkansas (16-7, 4-6 SEC) and Florida (14-9, 6-4 SEC) projected to join the trio at the top.    

Mississippi State, South Carolina and Tennessee are all considered to be on the wrong side of the bubble currently and in need of a strong finish to get into the field of 68.  

Arkansas’s standing in the field of 68 looks to be on much looser ground at the moment than Florida, as they are sub-.500 in conference and have dropped five of their last seven games. 

With the Razorbacks remaining schedule being fairly light, their margin for error to end the season is very slim and this is a team that may not only need a strong finish to the regular season, but a few wins in the conference tournament to safely secure an at-large bid.  

Florida is in largely the same boat as Arkansas. 

The Gators have dropped four of their last six games, and while they do have strong wins over Xavier and Auburn on their resume, they too could use a strong close to the regular season to solidify a bid in the NCAA Tournament.  

Oddsmakers don’t consider Florida or Arkansas as serious contenders to win the SEC Tournament in March, but each team does over respectable value if you believe they are.   

The Gators are listed at +700 to win the SEC, while Eric Musselman’s Razorbacks are listed at +1000.  

SEC Betting Nuggets

  • Auburn OVER is 4-1 in their last five games 
  • Kentucky OVER is 6-2 in their last eight games 
  • LSU OVER is 6-2 in their last eight games 
  • Miss. State is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games; OVER is 6-1 in their last seven games 
  • Florida is 0-5 ATS in their last five games 
  • South Carolina is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games; OVER is 5-2-1 in their last eight games 
  • Tennessee OVER is 4-1 in their last five games 
  • Texas A&M UNDER is 3-0 in the last three games (0-5 previous five games) 
  • Alabama is 1-4 ATS in their last five games (14-1 ATS run before that) 
  • Arkansas OVER is 9-1 in conference play 
  • Ole Miss is 5-0 ATS in their last five games (0-7-1 ATS run before that) 
  • Missouri is 2-8 ATS in conference play and 1-7 ATS in last eight games 
  • Georgia OVER is 6-2 in last eight games 
  • Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS in their last four games (1-6 ATS run before that)