NCAAB News

The Mid Major Report as of February 11, 2020

The Mid Major Conferences Odds and Reports: Gonzaga Eyes a One-Seed 

WCC Odds After Gonzaga Dismantled St. Mary’s 

No. 2 Gonzaga (25-1, 11-0 WCC) exerted their dominance in the West Coast Conference yet again when they went on the road and handed St. Mary’s (20-6, 7-4 WCC) a 90-60 beat down. 

The Zags have not lost a regular season conference game since January 18, 2018, and it does not appear as though this streak is in any real danger of ending anytime soon. 

Should the Zags run the table in the WCC yet again, it will clinch the Zags fourth consecutive season over 30-wins, and their second consecutive unbeaten season in conference. 

The lone hurdle for the Zags to leap looks to be their trip to Provo when they face BYU (19-7, 8-3 WCC) on Feb. 22. 

To say oddsmakers don’t believe that Gonzaga is in any danger of losing the West Coast Conference Tournament would be an understatement, as this week the Zags are listed at -770 to win the WCC Tourney in March with St. Mary’s (WCC Odds: +700) and BYU (WCC Odds: +1000) rounding out the top three. 

If you’re looking for any sort of value on a Zaga futures bet, your best bet would be to take the Zags to reach the Final Four at even money, or to take a flier on the Zags to win it all at +800. 

Your best bet involving the Zags though may simply just be taking the OVER in each game the rest of the way, at least until Zaga gives you reason not to. 

The Zags have gone OVER the total in 18 of their last 20 games, and in eight straight overall. 

MWC Odds: Aztecs Resume Their Run at a Perfect Season 

For the last several weeks, the top four teams in college basketball have remained where they are, with Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas and San Diego State rounding out the top of the sport. 

No. 4 San Diego State (24-0, 13-0 MWC) will resume its chase at the perfect season when they host New Mexico on Tuesday night (Feb. 11) as 15.5-point favorites, before a road date with Boise State on Sunday (Feb. 16) afternoon.  

Last week, the Aztecs only had one game on their schedule, and handled Air Force in Colorado Springs with a relatively stress-free 89-74 road win.   

Per Ken Pomeroy, there is a 48% chance the Aztecs run the table and enter the Mountain West Tournament with a perfect 29-0 record.   

Oddsmakers see this as a likely scenario, and have the Aztecs MWC odds listed at -225 to win the conference tournament when it tips off in Las Vegas the first week of March. 

Because of their weak schedule, oddsmakers also envision the Aztecs running the table and landing their first 1-seed in school history as they are listed at -200 to secure a spot on the 1-line heading into the NCAA Tournament.  

The only other school oddsmakers are keen on when the Mountain West tournament tips off in three weeks?  The Utah State Aggies at +400.   

A 32-0 one-seeded San Diego State team when you’re filling out your brackets in March shouldn’t be a surprise at this point, but rather, an expectation.  

Checking in on the American Athletic Conference Odds and Atlantic 10 Odds 

While the AAC and A10 aren’t considered “power conferences, each conference has a handful of teams poised to make some noise in March.  

Let’s have a quick check-in to see what’s going on this week in each of these conferences. 

It was not a great week for the conference, at least from the point of view of getting more teams into the NCAA Tournament. 
Entering last week, Joe Lunardi and other bracket experts had the AAC in line to get four teams into the dance, that number has since been cut in half with only conference leading Houston and Wichita State now projected to go dancing a few weeks from now. 
So, what happened?   
Conference darling Tulsa (15-8, 7-3 AAC) lost back-to-back conference games for the first time this season, falling from first-place to third, putting their at-large hopes in dire shape.   
Cincinnati meanwhile recorded their 7th win in eight games when they beat the Shockers on their home floor. Unfortunately for Bearcat fans, they then followed that up with a controversial OT loss against UConn just three days later. 
A strong close to the season should help Cincy’s bubble standing immensely though, while the aforementioned Wichita State Shockers (17-6, 5-5 AAC) place on the bubble is dicey to say the least.   
Wichita State dropped their third game in a row on Sunday, this time a 76-43 blowout loss at the hands of conference leading Houston (19-5, 9-2 AAC).   
Another loss by the Shockers will potentially place Wichita State in a situation where they will have to win the conference tournament to get in.  
Speaking of that conference tournament, oddsmakers are still quite bullish on the Shockers chances to win, as they have Wichita with the second-best odds to win the AAC Tournament at +300.   
Houston remains the short favorite (AAC Odds +250) with the Bearcats presenting what could be the best value (AAC Odds: +550). 
The A10 is realistically a two-team race as we enter the week, with No. 6 Dayton (21-2, 10-0 A10) still at the top of the A10 food-chain fighting off the scrappy Rhode Island Rams (18-5, 10-1 A10).  
Dayton and Rhode Island will finally get the chance to meet on the floor when the Rams head to Dayton on Tuesday (Feb. 11) in Rhody’s biggest test to date.  
The Flyers continue to have aspirations to secure a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and beating Rhode Island would give them a strange hold on the A10’s regular season crown. 
The VCU Rams (17-6, 7-3 A10) and St. Bonaventure Bonnies (16-8, 8-3 A10) appear to be the conference’s best hope at getting 3-4 teams into the dance, with VCU projected as one of the last teams to qualify for the NCAA Tournament as of this writing.  
Despite the Bonnies superior conference record, they are considered to need more work to take an at-large bid away from a Big Ten team to be named later (kidding, sort of).  
Oddsmakers are not believers in the boys from the smallest state in the union, as Rhode Island is listed at +800 to win the A10 Tournament later next month.   
Dayton is still considered the heavy favorite to win the conference tournament at -125, with VCU the second-best favorite (A-10 Odds: +275). 
Looking for a long shot with randomly great value right now?  Perhaps a small futures bet on third-place St. Bonaventure to win the conference tournament (A-10 Odds: +8000) would intrigue you then.  
Do you know that in addition to the AP Top 25 and the Top 25 Coaches Poll, there is a nifty poll that ranks the Top 25 Mid-Majors in the country? 
Did you also know that the No. 2 team in that poll this week (and No. 28 in the main polls if you’re counting) is none other than the Northern Iowa Panthers? 
If you have been asleep at the wheel and aren’t away of the first-place team from the Missouri Valley Conference, welcome to your indoctrination! 
The Panthers (21-3, 10-2 MVC) have been absolutely outstanding all season, but especially lately where they are really coming into form.  
Northern Iowa has won 10 of their last 11 games, with seven of those victories coming by double digits.  The Panthers are paced by their potent three-point shooting (5th overall in the country) and their offense as a whole (4th best FG% per KenPom). 
Not only do they shoot the lights out from the field, but they’re ranked 35th in the country at the free-throw line (76.4% FT’s) and are meriting strong at-large consideration if things go awry for them during the ‘Arch Madness’ conference tournament. 
They’ve also been a very good friend to have in every bettor’s corner – as they have gone 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games, with the OVER hitting in seven of their last nine games.  
Remember to circle the Panthers of Northern Iowa on your board the rest of the way.  
America East – Vermont OVER is 4-1 in last five games 
Atlantic Sun – North Florida is a scorching hot 13-2 ATS over their last 15 games 
Big Sky – Montana OVER is 6-0 in last six games, and 9-1 in their last 10 games. 
Big South – Winthrop is 12-1 ATS in road games this season 
Big West – UC Irvine OVER is 4-1 in last five games 
CAA – Hofstra is 5-1 ATS in their last six games, and 12-3 ATS over their L15 
Conference USA – North Texas is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games 
Horizon – Wright St. is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games; Wright St. OVER is 6-2 over L8 
Ivy – Yale OVER is 6-0 in last six games; Yale tied for NCAA best 15-5 (.750) record ATS 
Metro Atlantic – Rider UNDER is 5-1 over last six games 
Mid-American – Bowling Green is 1-4-1 ATS in home conference action 
MEAC – NC Central is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games; NC Central UNDER is 5-1 in L6 games 
Northeast – Merrimack is 8-2 ATS in last 10 games; Merrimack UNDER is 6-1 in L7 games 
Ohio Valley – Murray State UNDER is 5-0 in last five games 
Patriot League – Colgate UNDER is 4-0 in last four games 
Southern – Furman is 4-1 ATS in their last five games; ETSU OVER is 5-2 in L7 games 
Southland – Stephen F. Austin UNDER is 6-2 in last eight games 
SWAC – Prairie View A&M UNDER is 7-1-1 in last nine games 
Summit – South Dakota State is 10-1 ATS at home, and 9-1 ATS in their L10 games overall 
Sun Belt – Little Rock is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games; Little Rock OVER is 9-3 in L12 
Western Athletic – New Mexico State is 1-4 ATS in last five games; NMSU UNDER is 4-1 L5