Breaking Down the UFC Norfolk Odds for Sunday Night
The UFC’s men’s flyweight division is about to find a new top dog. Joseph Benavidez may finally be about to capture a championship since first joining the organization in 2011. The man who stands in his way this time is newcomer Deiveson Figueiredo.
UFC Norfolk Odds Breakdown: Who Has More Experience?
At first glance, this fight seems fairly even with both men coming in at 4-1 in their last five fights. However, the experience edge obviously has to go to the mast of “Joe-Jitsu.” Figueiredo is fairly new to the UFC with a 6-1 promotional record (17-1 overall.) Benavidez is 15-3 at the top level with a 28-5 overall record, having won nine of ten fights since 2014. Benevidez has won three straight since his last loss to Sergio Pettis.
Prior to this, he’d only been topped in a pair of bouts with former bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz in WEC and another two against former flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson, two of the best to put on a pair of gloves. Figueiredo was 11-0 outside of the UFC but against unknowns on the Brazilian circuit.
UFC Fight Night 169 Odds: Who Has the Edge in Endurance/Durability?
A belt has always eluded Benavidez both in the WEC at bantamweight and after fighting for the UFC 125-pound strap twice already. Yet, he remains unbroken after putting away Jussier Formiga with a head kick and strikes. Formiga has been the only one to beat Figueiredo in the UFC to date and he currently has 23 finishes. To Figueiredo’s credit, he wasn’t the victim of another finish.
Even though Figueiredo went the distance with Formiga, OddsUSA still has to give the durability edge to Benavidez. He has racked up 16 decisions (13 victories) while Figueiredo has four (three victories.) Benavidez has also gone a full five rounds, a possibility in title fights, twice in his career with the last 25-minute bout occuring in 2012. His opponent is unproven in championship rounds.
Straight Up: Who Has the Better Stats?
Benavidez should get the job done, but he is going to need to overwhelm Figueiredo as the less accurate striker (33% to Figueiredo’s 52%) according to UFCStats. However, Benavidez leads in both striking and grappling defense.
It could all come down to who has a better ground game if Figueiredo does get overwhelmed. Although Benavidez has the grappling defense edge, his dance partner average more takedown attempts through 15 minutes and leads in accuracy 47% to 31%.
Seven of Benavidez’s bouts since his second go-round with Johnson have been won or lost on points, so call our prediction a hunch.
Prediction: Joseph Benavidez wins the UFC flyweight championship by decision.