By: Harry Gagnon
Harry’s Wednesday Night UFC Fight Night 172 Betting Picks from Fight Island
What: UFC Fight Night 172
Where: Yas Island
Abu Dhabi, UAE
When: Wednesday, July 15th
On Saturday it was Abu Dhabi’s turn to host the UFC after cards were held in Jacksonville, Florida and Las Vegas, Nevada. This will be the second installment of four events in a two-week span in the United Arab Emirates. The other two cards will be this Saturday the 18th and then a week later (July 25th).
This past week on OddsUSA, I gave out solid analysis and selections in going 7-2 against the spread. Below are my ten best plays for Wednesday night in the Middle East.
Harry’s Betting Predictions for UFC Fight Night 172
Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172’s Upset Bet of the Night
-320 Calvin Kettar 21-4
+240 Dan Ige 14-2
Ige really impressed me in his last fight against Edson Barboza in May, winning by split decision. Ige has also won 12 of his last 13 fights overall after starting his MMA career 2-1. Kettar is only 3-2 in his last five fights and is also 0-1 when he is headlining a card. In November of 2019 he was in that position when he lost to Zabit Magomedsharipov.
Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172 Upset Pick Special: Ige +240
-300 Abdul Razak Alhassan 10-1
+235 Mounir Lazzez 9-1
-185 Under 1.5 Rounds
+140 Over 1.5 Rounds
These two are a combined 19-2 and Lazzez has won seven of his nine fights in either the 1st or 2nd round. All 10 of Ghana native Razak Alhassan’s wins have been by TKO and that includes a 43-second victory over Niko Price. Taking a side here is not worth it to me and, with both brawlers fight history, I’m laying the money with the under.
Harry’s Move: No Play on the Side/-185 Under 1.5 Rounds
-115 Taila Santos 15-1
-115 Molly McCann 10-2
It has been quite some time since either fighter in this fight has had a match; McCann has not fought since October of ’19 and Santos has been away even longer, last fighting in February of the same year. The only thing that has me leaning a certain way is that Santos has a six-inch reach advantage and that possibly could be the determining factor at the end of this match.
Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172 Betting Prediction: Santos -115
-140 Jared Gordon 15-4
+110 Chris Fishgold 18-3-1
Jared “The Flash” Gordon hasn’t been that “flashy” of late, losing three of his four fights, all by TKO. Meanwhile, the underdog Fishgold has won eight of his last 10 fights and 13 of his career 18 wins have come by submission.
Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172 Pick: Fishgold +110
-165 Diana Belbita 13-5
+135 Liana Jojua 7-3
Diana “The Warrior Princess” Belbita has three inches on Jojua and has a six-inch reach advantage on her. Belbita’s last four wins have come by TKO or submission. The under may be a nice play here if you are looking for a total, but I’m sticking with Belbita and, frankly, at -165 it could be a steal.
Harry’s Not a Sure Thing… But Kinda Sure Thing: Belbita (-165)
Some of Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172 Prop Bets
-175 Ricardo Ramos 14-2
+145 Lerone Murphy 8-0-1
-175 Fight to go the distance
+125 Fight to not go the distance
In five of the “The Miracle” Murphy’s victories have ended in the first round while in both of Ramos’ losses he has been finished in the first round. Both fighters are excellent, with only two losses combined in 25 fights, so I’m going with this fight to end inside the rounds.
Harry’s UFC Fight Night 172 Round Pick: +125 Fight to not go the distance
-120 Tim Elliott 16-11-1
-110 Ryan Benoit 10-6
These two don’t have a great combined record and Elliott is a disappointing 6-8 in his last 14 fights. He also was a -180 favorite in his last fight (May of 2020) against youngster Brandon Royval and lost in the second round. Benoit has a two-inch reach advantage and I have no faith in Elliott.
Harry’s Pick: -110 Benoit
Harry’s Best Bet of UFC Fight Night 172
-600 Jack Shore 12-0
+425 Aaron Phillips 5-3
Shore comes into this fight undefeated while winning 11 of his 12 fights by TKO or submission. He also has won half of his fights in the first round. Phillips hasn’t had a fight since 2015 and has actually lost three in a row. Shore should be done with Phillips before you can even finish your beverage of choice on Wednesday night.
Harry’s Best Bet of the Night: Shore -600
-255 Modestas Bukauskas 10-2
+205 Andreas Michailidis 12-3
Bukauskas has a three-inch reach advantage in this fight, plus he has won six in-a-row by either TKO or submission.
The Pick: Bukauskas -255
-330 Khamzat Chimaev 6-0
+250 John Phillips 22-9
John “The Welsh Wrecking Machine” has been “broken” of late, losing three of his last four fights. Chimaev is undefeated and has won all six fights by either TKO or submission.
The UFC Bet: Chimaev -330
I hope everyone enjoys the fights and cashes winning tickets on Wednesday night. I will have another set of winning plays in my article later this week for the third installment of fights from Fight Island. Stay safe and happy betting everyone!!!