By: Harry Gagnon
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Best Bets
What: UFC Fight Island 4
Where: Yas Island
Abu Dhabi, UAE
When: Saturday, July 25th
This will be the last installment of the UFC in the Middle East before they return to Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the fourth and final card in a wonderful two-week period. Last Saturday, we gave out some terrific and easy winners (and have done so throughout the Fight island run) so remember that as we wrap up our fourth card from the United Arb Emirates in 14 days.
Let me just recap; my underdog play of the night was Joel Alvarez at +280, and he stunned Joe Duffy in the first round with a guillotine choke submission victory. Also, I gave out an easy winner with Grant Dawson who delivered two takedowns and 136 strikes in three rounds. Finally in the main event, winning money could not have been easier when Daiveson Figueiredo went to 19-1 with a first round submission win (rear naked choke) over Joseph Benavidez.
This wasn’t much of a rematch as Figueiredo outpunched his opponent in the head 31 times to eight. I will do my best to make this a pleasurable betting experience with more solid analysis and picks for the final card at “Fight Island.”
UFC Fight Island 4 Till vs. Whittaker Best Bet
-110 Darren Till 18-2-1
-120 Robert Whittaker 21-5
Till has fought some excellent competition of late, including beating Kelvin Gastelum by a split decision back in November of ’19. However, in his two previous fights he lost to Jorge Masvidal and Tyron Woodley. “The Reaper” Whittaker has won nine of his last ten fights and his only loss was to Israel Adesanya, which is understandable.
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Bet: -120 Whittaker
-110 Bethe Correia 11-4-1
-120 Pannie Kianzad 13-5
Correia is just 2-4-1 in her last seven matches. The Swede, “Banzai” Kianzad, is the play here as she has four total inches on her opponent and is 10-2 in decisions in her career. Correia is in her fights to the end (six straight and 13 of 16 have made it to the 3rd round) but lately she has come up short and will again on Saturday night.
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Betting Prediction: -120 Kianzad
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Underdog Bet of the Night
-310 Alexander Gustafsson 18-5
+240 Fabricio Werdum 23-9-1
That is a heavy price to lay on Gustafsson considering he has lost five of his last eight matchups. Werdum is 9-4 in his last 13 fights, which includes two wins over Travis Browne.
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 4 Underdog Pick of the Night: +240 Werdum
-175 Alex Oliveira 20-8-1
+145 Peter Sobotta 17-6-1
Here is another underdog play that makes a lot of sense. Oliveira is just 1-3 in his last four matches and both of these fighters have a common opponent. They have both fought Nicolas Dalby who just so happens to be fighting on Saturday as well. Sobotta took care of Dalby. Meanwhile, Oliveira lost to Dalby. I’m thinking that Las Vegas has the wrong guy favored here.
Harry’s Backup UFC Fight Island 4 Underdog Bet of the Night: +145 Sobotta
-210 Tom Aspinall 7-2
+170 Jack Collier 11-4
Collier is just 2-2 in his last four fights and Aspinall has won all of his fights in the first round.
Harry’s UFC Betting Prediction: -210 Aspinall
-275 Nicolas Dalby 18-3-1
+215 Jesse Ronson 20-10
Ronson has lost two matches in a row and Dalby in 4-0-1 (including a win over Oliveira) after suffering three straight losses. Laying -275 is a bit steep, but I like the direction Dalby is going of late.
Harry’s Best Bet at UFC Fight Island 4: -275 Dalby
Harry’s Betting Picks for UFC Fight Island 4
-120 Gadzhimurad Antigulov 20-6
-110 Paul Craig 12-4-1
Antigulov has lost two fights in a row and when it comes to height and reach, Craig has a dominating 11 total inches over his opponent.
Harry’s UFC Betting Pick: -110 Craig
-155 Marina Rodriguez 12-0-2
+125 Carla Esparza 17-6
Rodriguez is still undefeated and is five inches taller than the 5’1 Esparza.
Harry’s Betting Move: -155 Rodriguez
-230 Tanner Boser 18-6-1
+185 Raphael Pessoa 10-1
The Brazilian Pessoa has 30 pounds and a three-inch reach advantage over the -230 favorite. In six of Pessoa’s victories he has won all six via TKO. Meanwhile, Boser is an average 6-4-1 in his last 11 matches. Take the plus money here.
Harry’s Pick to Win at UFC Fight Island 4: +185 Pessoa
Those are my plays for the final card in Abu Dhabi. Fighting will return to the United States on August 1st in Las Vegas. Enjoy a great weekend watching and winning on the UFC. Happy betting!!!