By: Harry Gagnon
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Betting Picks
What: Fight Island 3
Where: Abu Dhabi, UAE
When: Saturday, June 18
Well here we go again with a third card out of four from “Fight Island” in the United Arab Emirates on Saturday night. On Wednesday, the UFC and Dana White put out another excellent card with upset wins by Mounir Lazzez, Lerone Murphy, and Liana Jojua. Wednesday’s card also had some favorites just dominate in their fights.
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I was wrong (I can admit it when I am) about Chris Fishgold who was never in his fight against Jared Gordon. No one was better than Wales native Jack Shore who won by submission and stayed undefeated (13-0). I produced plenty of winners while the fighting has been in Abu Dhabi and I will do my best to continue to put extra money in your pocket this weekend.
Harry’s Fight Island 3 Main Event Betting Prediction
-200 Deiveson Figueiredo 18-1
+140 Joseph Benavidez 28-6
This is a flyweight rematch from February in which Benavidez lost by TKO in the 2nd round. Figueiredo has taken care of his opponents early and often with 15 wins coming by TKO or submission. Benavidez is only 3-2 in his last fight fights. Figueiredo has a three-inch reach advantage and just matches up well against Benavidez. I expect him to do much of the same as what transpired in fight number one.
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Betting Pick: Figueiredo
-240 Montel Jackson 9-1
+195 Brett Johns 16-2
Despite a 16-2 record, Johns has lost two of his last three against better competition. Jackson just might end this one early by using his extra five inches of reach and three inches of height against Johns.
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Betting Pick: Jackson
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Upset of the Night Betting Pick
-360 Joe Duffy 16-4
+280 Joel Alvarez 16-2
Both fighters come into this one with 16 victories but somehow Duffy is a -360 favorite despite losing three of his last five fights. Alvarez will have an eight-inch combined advantage in height and reach over Duffy. Alvarez has also made quick work of his opponents on a regular basis as only two fights have made it to the third round.
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Upset Pick: Alvarez
Double Digit Underdog Play of the Night
-120 Ariane Lipski 12-5
-110 Luana Carolina 6-1
+2200 Carolina to Win in the 3rd Round
After a loss in her first UFC fight, Luana Carolina has ripped off six straight victories. Carolina has won three-in-a-row by unanimous decision and Lipski’s last four fights (just 2-2) have been decided by decision. Both women have battled to the end of fights. With that in mind, let’s roll with the fighter with a better record as well as which is the is hotter fight, and to do it by winning late in the fight at +2200.
Harry’s Double Digit Underdog Play of the Night: Carolina to Win and Carolina to Win in the 3rd Round at +2200
-250 Grant Dawson 15-1
+200 Nad Narimani 12-3
Dawson has the inches nod over And, having two inches more in height and reach. In 14 of Dawson’s wins he has won impressively by TKO or submission. Narimani lost his last fight in March to Mike Grundy by TKO.
Harry’s Fight Island 3 Pick: Dawson
-125 Kelvin Gastelum 16-5
-105 Jack Hermansson 20-5
Hermansson has a six-inch reach advantage and Gastelum has been in a rut with three losses in his last five opportunities. He is also three inches taller, and I like to go with the statistics.
Harry’s Pick: Hermansson
-200 Arman Tsarukyan 14-2
+165 Davi Ramos 10-3
Tsarukyan has won 10 of his 14 fights by either TKO or submission. He also has a three-inch reach advantage plus Ramos lost in his last fight to I. Makhachev.
Harry’s Bet: Tsarukyan
-160 Marc Diakiese 14-3
+130 Rafael Fiziev 7-1
Diakiese beat Joe Duffy in the past, and if you look at the card, you’ll see that Duffy just happens to be an almost -400 favorite on this card on Saturday. So by the transitive property, the pick is Diakiese.
Harry’s UFC Fight Island 3 Pick: Diakiese
-145 Sergey Spivak 10-2
+115 Carlos Felipe 8-0
After nine straight wins to start his career, Spivak has dropped two of his last three fights. I might be missing something here, but I’m taking the younger undefeated fighter who is getting plus money.
Harry’s UFC Betting Prediction: Felipe
That is quite the variety of selections for Saturday night from Abu Dhabi. I split it down the middle with five fabulous favorites and five “any given day’ underdogs.
Happy betting everyone and stay safe as sports continues to make a comeback.
