By: Harry Gagnon
Harry’s UFC Best Bets for UFC Vegas 6: Lewis vs. Oleinik
What: UFC Vegas 6
Where: Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Saturday, August 8th
After being overseas in the Middle East for two weeks, the UFC returned to Las Vegas last week where there were plenty of surprises and fireworks on the card. The card this week is a tune-up for the following week’s main event that represents the return of Daniel Cormier.
Cormier is a current -120 slight favorite over Stipe Miocic. That fight next week should be a classic affair in Sin City. As far as this week goes, there are numerous fights to jump on and with my insight, we can go the betting window together and cash our winners.
-240 Derrick Lewis 23-7
+190 Aleksei Oleinik 59-13-1
Oleinik is a journeyman in this sport… meanwhile Derrick Lewis continues to try and make a name for himself. Oleinik is still a capable fighter and Lewis better not overlook his older opponent on Saturday night. The right play here is to lay the money with Lewis who is 18-4 in his career in fights that were finished by a TKO.
Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Betting Pick: -240 Lewis
-120 Omari Akhmedov 20-4-1
-110 Chris Weidman 14-5
I like both guys in this match. Akhmedov was 3-0 in 2019 and is 5-0-1 in his last six fights. Everyone knows I value a five or more-inch reach advantage in certain fights and this one has that situation. Weidman has five inches of reach and two more in height over his smaller opponent. My final factor is that Weidman has a better submission average.
Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Betting Prediction: -110 Weidman
Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Upset Pick of the Night
-160 Beneil Dariush 18-4
+130 Scott Holtzman 14-3
In Dariush’s four losses, he has lost in the first or second round by TKO or submission. So, it pays to attack Dariush early and try to catch him off guard. Holtzman is undefeated at 7-0 in matches decided by TKO or submission, and he is victorious in five of his last six matches.
Harry’s UFC Upset Pick for UFC Vegas 6: +130 Holtzman
-160 Wellington Turman 16-3
+130 Andrew Sanchez 12-5
Sanchez is a disappointing 2-3 in his last five fights, meanwhile Turman is 11-0 in fights determined by TKO or submission. If you are a total bettor this might be a fight that would favor the over. Six of Turman’s last eight fights have gone the distance and Sanchez has seven fights in a row that have made it to the third round.
Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Parlay of the Night: -160 Turman and Over in Rounds
-275 Nasrat Haqparast 11-3
+215 Alex Munoz 6-0
Munoz is 6-0 but has been fighting lesser talent and this will be his toughest task of his young UFC career. Haqparast took care of Joaquin Silva in his last fight about a year ago and will wear Munoz down
Harry’s UFC Pick: -275 Haqparast
-140 Laureano Staropoli 9-2
+110 Tim Means 29-12-1
Both fighters’ last win was against the same guy (Thiago Alves). Staropoli lost his last fight and Means is more experienced and possesses a four-inch reach advantage which has me leaning towards the underdog here.
Harry’s UFC Vegas 6 Pick: +110 Means
-200 Gavin Tucker 11-1
+165 Justin Jaynes 16-4
Jaynes hasn’t fought since July of last year where he took down Seungwoo Choi. Tucker has an impressive record and I expect him to open up things and finish Jaynes off by midway through the second round
Harry’s UFC Betting Pick: -200 Tucker