By: Harry Gagnon
Harry’s UFC 251 Best Bets from Fight Island
What: UFC 251
Where: Yas Island
Abu Dhabi, UAE
When: July 11, 2020
After a week off, the UFC returns with a spectacular card on Saturday for UFC 251 from the United Arab Emirates. The UFC is changing venues again and will have three cards in a two-week span from the Middle East. UFC 251 will be headlined by the fight between “The Nigerian Nightmare” Kamaru Usman (16-1) and 2019’s fighter of the year Jorge Masvidal (3-0 in 2019, including a 5-second victory).
On Saturday we also have a couple of intriguing rematches on the fight card. In December Alexander Volkanovski took care of Max Holloway for his 21st career victory at UFC 245, and despite being an +175 underdog, Jessica Andrade will try to make it two in a row over Rose Namajunas. Abu Dhabi will mark the third city, and the third different time zone since the start of Coronavirus, and I’m sure it will be the third great venue for exciting UFC action.
I hope you all have a good time watching the return of the UFC and with some luck hopefully we can capitalize on some edges I discovered and we all can make some money.
Harry’s Best Bets for UFC 251 Betting Predictions
-310 Kamaru Usman 16-1
+255 Jorge Masvidal 35-13
+110 Over 4.5 Rounds
-140 Under 4.5 Rounds
Despite being the fighter of the year in 2019, Masvidal was a fill-in for this match and is a large +255 underdog. Usman has won 15 matches in a row, meanwhile Masvidal is only 7-5 in his last 12 fights. As for the total, a shot at the plus money is in play considering all five of Usman’s last five fights have reached the fifth round.
Harry’s UFC 251 Usman vs. Masvidal Betting Pick: Usman and Over 4.5 Rounds
-220 Alexander Volkanovski 21-1
+180 Max Holloway 21-5
This fight is extremely interesting in different ways. Volkanovski comes into this fight with a 21-1 record and 14 of his wins have come via TKO or submission. Holloway and his five extra inches in height will be seeking revenge after losing to Volkanovski at UFC 245.
Harry’s UFC 251 Betting Pick: Volkanovski
-240 Petr Yan 14-1
+200 Jose Aldo 28-6
Yan is a star on the rise and a winner of nine straight fights. Aldo has an excellent record but has lost five of his last eight fights.
Harry’s Betting Pick at UFC 251: Yan
The Rematch Not to Overlook When Betting UFC 251
-200 Rose Namajunas 9-4
+175 Jessica Andrade 20-7
In May of last year, Andrade defeated Namajunas but in the revenge match, the loser of the previous match is a -200 favorite. Namajunas has the advantage in height (four inches) and reach (three inches).
The UFC 251 Rematch Betting Pick: Namajunas
-950 Amanda Ribas 9-1
+625 Paige VanZant 8-4
VanZant has lost three of her last five fights and has won six of nine times by either TKO or submission.
Harry’s UFC 251 Pick: Ribas
-180 Leonardo Santos 17-4-1
+160 Roman Bogatov 10-0
-160 Over 2.5 Rounds
+130 Under 2.5 Rounds
These two solid fighters have combined for 15 straight wins. Santos is 12-1 in fights decided by TKO or submission, meanwhile, Bagatov is undefeated and has seven wins by TKO or knockout. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander in this spot, I’d say. This may be a spot were the fighters protect themselves and it takes a while to really get started.
Harry’s Preferred Play at UFC 251: Over 2.5 Rounds
-165 Martin Day 8-3
+135 Davey Grant 11-4
Day has a four-inch reach in this matchup and Grant has lost three of his last five fights (all three loses by submission) and that includes a 59-second loss to Manny Bermudez.
Harry’s UFC 251 Prop Bet of the Day
Namajunas to win between rounds 1-3 +210
Jessica Andrade 20-7 versus Rose Namajunas 9-4
As mentioned before, this is a revenge match for Namajunas and she has a combined 7-inches on Andrade in reach and height. I fully expect her to strike and strike early and force Andrade into tough spots. In Namajunas’s nine wins, seven have come by either TKO or submission (6 of them coming by submission).
By Saturday night’s end the new numbers will be eight fights out of ten.