Wednesday, October 7, 2020, Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas, 2:08 p.m. ET
Marlins vs. Braves Betting Preview: Marlins (+175), Braves (-200)
The Miami Marlins wasted a nice opportunity in Game 1 against Atlanta on Tuesday, grabbing a 4-1 lead and knocking out Braves ace Max Fried before watching their bullpen get torched in a 9-5 loss. The defeat was the first for Miami this season when leading after six innings.
One positive for the postseason-inexperienced Marlins in Game 1 was getting offensive production from six different players, including Miguel Rojas, who homered, and Brian Anderson, who collected three hits. Miami struggled on offense against Atlanta during the regular season. If you throw out a 29-9 loss, the Marlins averaged just 3.5 runs in nine games vs. the Braves, well below their season average of 4.4 runs per game.
Right-hander Pablo Lopez will start Game 2 for the Marlins. He has made just 42 career starts, but the Braves are plenty familiar with him, having faced him eight times already. Lopez has gone 2-4 with a 4.43 ERA in those games.
The Braves made it three in a row in the postseason, this time riding a powerful offensive attack to a 1-0 advantage in their best-of-five series against the Marlins. Ronald Acuna Jr., Travis d’Arnaud and Dansby Swanson contributed home runs to a 12-hit attack.
Acuna and d’Arnaud have had more than their fair share of success against Lopez, the Marlins’ Game 2 starter, in their careers. Each has homered off the young Miami pitcher twice, with both of d’Arnaud’s long balls coming this season.
Right-hander Ian Anderson was beaten head-to-head by Lopez the last time the Braves saw the Marlins in the regular season, although the Atlanta rookie did not allow an earned run among the three he saw score in a 4-2 defeat. The 22-year-old was almost unhittable in his postseason debut against Cincinnati last week, shutting out the Reds on two hits over six innings and striking out nine in a 5-0 win that earned the Braves a spot in the NL Division Series.
Marlins vs. Braves Betting Pick for Game 2
The Marlins and Braves got their bats going in a high-scoring affair in Game 1, but don’t be fooled by a short-term memory. These teams combined to allow a total of one run in four games in the first round, and they managed to advance despite not doing much scoring themselves (total of 13 runs).
The last time Anderson and Lopez met, the 4-2 final was deceiving. They didn’t allow an earned run between them. And Anderson has pitched once since, not allowing any kind of run on that occasion. At close to even money in a tight pitchers’ duel, getting 1 1/2 runs with the Marlins is a steal.
Marlins at Braves Betting Pick:
Braves 1, Marlins 0
Marlins at Braves Best Bet for Game 2
Postseason play tends to bring out a lot of inexperienced gamblers who believe what happened one day will happen again the next. Having just witnessed a 9-5 game, they can’t wait to jump on the over in Game 2.
The oddsmakers have anticipated this and posted an incredibly high number, one that provides a great opportunity for those who recall that these two teams never played a game with more than six total runs last week and they played a low-scoring contest the last time these two pitchers squared off.
Marlins at Braves Best Bet: UNDER 9 total runs (-110)
–Field Level Media