By: Jake Donnelly
Why You Should Respect Tiz the Law: Kentucky Derby Best Bets
There will be fewer hats. The mint julips will not flow as readily or as steadily as they would have if this was May. However, despite all of that, horse racing fans around the country and around the world finally have reason to rejoice as the Kentucky Derby is finally here. While many are rightfully wondering how the race will run despite the lack of festivities (and even which songs will be played), there are still plenty of options to choose from… but you should probably respect the authority of Tiz the Law.
Tiz the Law is the prohibitive favorite and everybody and their brother seem to think it is his race to lose. While Tiz the Law is on a four-race win streak, many believed his stiffest competition would come from Art Collector. However, Art Collector had to pull out due to a minor foot injury so this really is Tiz the Law’s race. With all that being said, this I the 146th Run for the Roses and it is taking place in 2020; if there ever was a Kentucky Derby where a “sure bet” horse loses, it would be this one, right?
If Not Tiz the Law, then Who?
Bob Baffert always has his horses ready to run at the Derby and has two horses you might think of putting your money on. He will present both Authentic and Thousand Words. There is some interesting history in the field as Thousand Words only made it to the derby thanks to overcoming Honor A.P. (the Santa Anita Derby Winner) in a victory last month (the Shared Belief Stakes).
If you are the type of better who likes to throw caution to the wind and choose your pony via color (ala Dave “El Presidente” Portnoy at Barstool Sports), then the best “gray” bet is probably NY Traffic. Given the colt’s name and his never-stop type of racing attitude, NY Traffic might be the horse to weave his way through the field and clip Tiz the Law by the finish line.
That is honestly where the race will be won though. Tiz the Law does a tremendous job of both positioning for a closing run and disheartening any horse that tries to overtake him after the second turn. Be wary of horse who will jump out to the front with a bulldozer like Tiz the Law in the field. This race will be won after the second turn, so if you are a fan of front-runners, this is more than likely not your race.
Kentucky Derby Best Long Shots and Kentucky Derby Superfecta
Major Fed (50-1)
Major Fed has had terrible luck in almost every race he has run of late. He has to continuously loop out wide, and although he has had to run longer races by pure position on the track, he has still closed hard. If you think Tiz the Law can be overtaken at the end, Major Fed is your longshot horse.
NY Traffic (20-1)
As mentioned above, NY Traffic has an interesting style for a Kentucky Derby where there is a prohibitive favorite. Just like a horse fly in the dead of summer, NY Traffic just seems to always be hanging around, waiting for a slip up. The gray colt has finished second in each of his last three races, and always seems to have just a little extra after he crosses the finish line. If he can open up the throttle just a little early, maybe he can clip Tix the Law.
Kentucky Derby Winner and Superfecta
Look, here is the thing, Tiz the Law is going to win this race. BUT should you feel like this race is going to be a microcosm of 2020, then you can have fun with the following:
Kentucky Derby Winner: NY Traffic (20-1)
Please note, I always box my plays, but here is my favorite longshot superfecta:
Kentucky Derby Superfecta:
Win: NY Traffic (20-1)
Place: Tiz the Law (3-5)
Show: Thousand Words (15-1)
4th: Major Fed (50-1)