By: Harry Gagnon
Quaker State 400 Prop Bets
What: Quaker State 400
Where: Kentucky Speedway
When: Sunday, July 12
This week NASCAR is in Kentucky for the Quaker State 400 and then the drivers will head to Bristol, Tennessee next week for the All-Star race on Saturday and NASCAR’s cup race on Sunday. This past week I gave out another solid card of prop bets as first and foremost I said Kevin Harvick would prevail and he did just that.
Normally that would be just fine, but I read the Matt Kenseth outcome in Indianapolis like a book, predicting him for a top 3 finish at +1600 (second place last week) which actually hit pretty easily (or as easy it could possibly be to hit a +1600 in this crazy sport). This week I really like some drivers, but to start things off I will give you who I don’t like this week in Kentucky (I gave out Truex 38th and Stenhouse 36th last week to finish poorly… so you might want to listen).
Who to Kick to the Curb in Kentucky
In four lifetime races here, Bowman’s average of finish is 31st and his best performance at this track is just 17th. He has as many top 20 finishes (one) as DNF’s (did not finish).
In nine starts in Kentucky, Johnson has just one top 5 and has three DNF’s. His worst performance here is a disappointing 35th place finish.
If you’re not picking up what I’m throwing down here, let me make this clear; stay away from Alex Bowman and Jimmy Johnson.
Quaker State 400 Odds to Win and General NASCAR Stats
+550 Kevin Harvick
+600 Martin Truex, Jr
+650 Brad Keselowski
+650 Denny Hamlin
+650 Kyle Busch
+700 Brad Keselowski
+750 Chase Elliott
Top NASCAR Points Leaders
- 637 Kevin Harvick
Harvick has 13 top 10’s this season and in his last 3 races he has finished: win, second, and win again
- 552 Chase Elliott
Elliott is 4th on the circuit in laps led with 451
- 545 Brad Keselowski
Has second best finishing position average in NASCAR at 9.4. Harvick is first at 6.9
- 528 Denny Hamlin
Is tied with Harvick for the lead in wins this season with four
- 526 Ryan Blaney
Blaney has seven top 5’s during the campaign
Drivers with 500 Laps Led this Season
Who are the best guys at intermediate tracks since 2017:
Martin Truex, Jr.
Truex has 10 wins at these type of courses and his average finish over the last three years is 6.7
Harvick has eight wins and his average finish is 8.4
In three years Kyle has prevailed four times and average finish is also in the single digits at 9.3
Quaker State 400 Prop Bets and Matchups
-150 Martin Truex over Brad Keselowski
This and Charlotte may be Truex’s favorite courses to run on. Truex is 51 points behind Keselowski on the points leaderboard and will need to capitalize on getting that number smaller with a huge performance on Sunday. Last year Keselowski finished 20th and in 2017 he was done early as he put up a miserable 39th place finish.
-155 Kyle Busch over Kurt Busch
Both brothers have run well here but Kyle is just a bit better and has been a bit better overall this season. In the last three races here, Kyle has three top 5’s and has led for 184 of those laps.
Kurt has two top 10’s and has led for 86 laps. Kyle is slightly better than Kurt and will prove that again this weekend.
-135 Erik Jones over Alex Bowman
I mentioned earlier that Bowman has had a tough go of it in Kentucky. In addition, in Jones’ last three races here, he has finished third, seventh, and sixth.
Quaker State 400 Odds to Win and Top 3 Finish
+175 and +700 Kyle Busch
In nine career races here, Busch has seven top 5’s and has led for 621 laps. Over that time period, Busch is a perfect nine-for-nine in top 20’s and has eight top 10’s (no one else on tour even has seven).
+165 and +600 Martin Truex, Jr
Truex is averaging 107 laps led over the past three races while taking the checkered in two of them. Truex is also a perfect nine out of nine in top 20’s in Kentucky.
Harry’s Kentucky Quaker State 400 Top 5
1-Martin Truex, Jr.