Harry Gagnon’s Thursday Night Football Prop Bet for Week 14
Alternate Total UNDER 38.5 (+160)
This game is a story of a pair of offenses where anything can happen, but probably won’t; the Dallas Cowboys offense has been struggling lately while the Chicago Bears offense has been struggling all season. The Cowboys have managed just 24 points in their last eight quarters of play, which will happen when you play the Patriots and Bills defenses.
Their loss on Thanksgiving marked the 4th straight game where running back Ezekiel Elliott didn’t record 100 yards rushing in a game and the second straight week where a receiver did not get 100 yards receiving in a game. In the Cowboys last four games they have only scored 32 total points in the second half of those games.
On defense they have played tough, especially two weeks ago in New England when they held the Patriots to just 13 points. Dallas is led by linebacker Jaylon Smith who has 112 tackles on the season and had a season high 14 on Thursday versus the Buffalo Bills.
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The Bears have had an extremely tough go of it on offense for the entirety season. Chicago is 28th in rushing and 27th in passing for a total ranking of 30th overall in the NFL. In the Bears last six games five of them have gone under 38 points, and beyond that, there has not been much scoring at Soldier Field this season. In five of their six home games, the total points also has gone under 38 (13 vs Packers, 22 vs Vikings, 33 vs Chargers, 33 vs Lions, and 33 vs Giants).
While the offense stinks, they still are very good on the defensive end and are 7th in the league in total yards against. Linebacker Roquan Smith is everywhere on the field and leads the team with 97 tackles while Khalil Mack and defensive tackle Nick Williams have 12.5 sacks combined. The under has hit in 13 of the Cowboys last 16 games in December and the under has hit in eight of the last nine home games for the Bears with an average of just 32 points a game during that stretch.
19 Chicago Bears
16 Dallas Cowboys
Harry Gagnon spent 14 years as a Vegas Sportsbook Supervisor and holds a Communications degree from SUNY-Oswego. You might know him better as part of the Degenerate Trifecta on the award nominated betting podcast “Against All odds with Cousin Sal” on the Ringer Podcast Network. Feel free to find him on Twitter (@AAOHarry) and tweet him a message if you want to talk casinos, sports, or just shoot the breeze about betting in general cause, hey, that’s what Twitter is for, right?