Harry Gagnon’s Underdog Bet of NFL Week 16
The Game:
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
The Play:
Bills +230
Not only are the Buffalo Bills a live +230 underdog in this game on Saturday against the Super Bowl champs, but it’s also a chance to pull even with the New England Patriots for first place in the AFC East. Buffalo is no joke as they enter this game with the 3rd best defense in the league and have yielded the second fewest points in the league (the Patriots are No. 1). The Bills are also tied with Kansas City and Baltimore for the best record (6-1) on the road in the AFC (that’s pretty good company right there).
Not only that, but people are starting to take notice nationally of just how good these Bills are; Sunday night was their first time on Sunday night football since 2007 and they did not disappoint. Their defense forced Steelers quarterback “Duck” Hodges into four interceptions as the Bills pulled out a gritty 17-10 win in the steel city. Offensively, the Bills are led by free agent wide receiver John Brown who went over 1,000 yards receiving last week and has earned quarterback Josh Allen’s trust when throwing the ball downfield.
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The Patriots did secure a victory in Cincinnati, but it was far from impressive. Tom Brady threw for only 128 yards with only 37 of those going to wide receivers. The Pats were fortunate that Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton threw four “ducks” of his own, which was the difference in Cincinnati for New England.
When these two hooked up in Buffalo, the Bills were a 7 point “dog,” but covered despite a poor game from Allen before he was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Once again, they are a 7-point dog in Foxborough. This time though, Allen will have more confidence because he has learned over the last couple of weeks how to win—and win on the road—something that is a good possibility this weekend. The stingy Buffalo defense will shut down New England’s offense; the story everyone will be talking about Sunday morning is how Jordan Poyer, Ed Oliver, Tre’Daviuos White and the rest of the Bills defense pushed the Bills into a first place tie in the AFC East with one week left in the season.
The Prediction:
27 Buffalo Bills
19 New England Patriots
Harry Gagnon spent 14 years as a Vegas Sportsbook Supervisor and holds a Communications degree from SUNY-Oswego. You might know him better as part of the Degenerate Trifecta on the award nominated betting podcast “Against All odds with Cousin Sal” on the Ringer Podcast Network. Feel free to find him on Twitter (@AAOHarry) and tweet him a message if you want to talk casinos, sports, or just shoot the breeze about betting in general cause, hey, that’s what Twitter is for, right?
