Harry’s NASCAR Geico 500 Odds and Geico 500 Prop Bets
What: Geico 500
Where: Talladega, Alabama
When: June 21, 2020
NASCAR has finally found its way to Talladega. Talladega is the longest oval track on the circuit at 2.66 miles long. It barely beats out Daytona International Speedway which is 2.5 miles in length. It will be tough to see no fans at the coliseum of racetracks but it’s still running and running smoothly; I must say that also goes for employees hooked up with NASCAR and the FOX broadcasting crews.
But back to the track itself. This is a track that produces plenty of lap leaders; last race here in October there were 19 lap leaders, which was the most since there was 23 in May of 2014. I’m going to try to wipe off the smell I’ve contracted after a pretty boring race in Miami. But “Dega” should be different with some tight driving, which will lead to wrecks and a chance for drivers sneaking up to get to spots they normally attain. I am thinking this might be déjà vu from last race when Ryan Newman grabbed second and Aric Almirola, Austin Dillon, Michael McDonald, and Cory Lajoie all finished 4th through 7th.
NASCAR Laps Led Leaders After 12 Races
- 542—Kevin Harvick
Harvick had another week without any laps led. However, he has finished in the top 10 in nine of 12 races this campaign
- 480—Joey Logano
Logano has finished in the top 5 in three of his last four races at Talladega
- 422—Chase Elliot
Elliot has finished in the top 5 in half of the 12 races this season
- 369—Alex Bowman
Outside of his one win this season, the No. 88 car has just two other top 10’s
- 359—Denny Hamlin
Hamlin is the leader on the circuit in wins with three
NASCAR Cup Points Leaderboard
- 463—Kevin Harvick
Harvick has the best finishing average on tour with an 8.0 average finish
- 455—Chase Elliott
The fifth-year starter is really coming into his own as he challenges for the top prize every week. He is within eight points of the cup lead and has eight top 10s in 12 races this season
- 434—Joey Logano
Looking to bounce back after a disappointing race in Miami lats weekend where he finished 27th
- 412—Brad Keselowski
Keselowski has the second best finishing average on the circuit with an 8.9
- 411—Ryan Blaney
Geico 500 Odds to Win
+800 Chase Elliott
+800 Joey Logano
+1000 Denny Hamlin
+1000 Brad Keselowski
+1100 Ryan Blaney
+1100 Kyle Busch
+1400 Kevin Harvick
+1400 Martin Truex, Jr.
+1500 Kurt Busch
Geico 500 Top 3 Finish Odds
+250 Joey Logano
Logano had me suckered in on Sunday night in Miami in a matchup over Brad Keselowski. Keselowski ran a subpar race but unfortunately Lagano was more disappointing and finished 27th. Logano is too good of a driver to do that again, plus he has a great history at “Dega” with wins here in 2015, ’16, and ’18.
+550 Aric Almirola
Almirola has been looking good lately and at +550 we are taking a shot with a driver who runs great races at the speedway. Almirola finished 4th & 9th here last year and in 2018 he scored a 7th place and a victory where he led 11 laps.
Geico 500 Prop Bets
-135 Chase Elliott over Brad Keselowski
Elliott is always at the top of the leaderboard and, with a solid performance, can overtake Kevin Harvick as the NASCAR cup points leader.
Harry’s Geico 500 Prop Bet Pick: Elliott
-130 Austin Dillon over Christopher Bell
Bell ran great last week while finishing 8th (his highest finish as a pro), but Dillon was a tad better, recording a 7th place finish on the day his wife gave birth. I see the good fortune continue for Dillon on a track where he is comfortable: in his last race here he finished 6th, and in 2016 he finished 9th and 3rd at Talladega.
Harry’s Geico 500 Prop Bet Pick: Dillon
Geico 500 Bet to Win and Top 3 at Talladega
+1100 Ryan Blaney to Win and +325 to Finish Top 3
Blaney led for 35 laps in his victory in October and he is looking to grab a checkered on this track in back-to back races. In general, there have been numerous races as of late where Blaney has looked like the best driver with the fastest car on the track.
We kept waiting for Truex, Jr. to get his first victory of the season, and he did that a week and a half ago. I think now is Blaney’s turn. Blaney is 5th in points with 411, just one more than Truex, Jr. and 16 more than Hamlin. Blaney is 8th in laps led on tour with 245. Let’s see if things materialize for Blaney as he makes his attempt at two in a row at Talladega.
Harry’s Geico 500 Top 10 Finish Prediction
10-Ryan Preece (Finished 3rd in first race at Talladega last year)
9-Austin Dillon
8-Brad Keselowski
7-Kevin Harvick
6-Chase Elliott
5-Kurt Busch
4-Alex Bowman
3-Aric Almirola
2-Joey Logano
1-Ryan Blaney
