What: Dixie Vodka 400
Where: Miami, Florida
When: Sunday, June 14
Racing resumes this Sunday in South Beach. Homestead Motor Speedway isn’t a track know for many drivers taking over leads. In fact, we have not had more than eight leaders in a race in Miami since 2011. Last week I gave out why Kevin Harvick would not have one of his better days in Martinsville and this week my “black flag racer” will be on Brad Keselowski.
Why You Need to Back off Brad (Keselowski) or the “No No on “Keselo”
Keselowski has been quite fortunate with his two last second victories. He scored a third-place finish on Wednesday night, but he won’t have the drive or the car. Keselowski finished 18th last year in this race and in 2016 he plummeted to a 35th place disaster.
NASCAR Cup Points Standings Leaders and Laps Led Leaders
- 452—Kevin Harvick: Harvick has nine top 10s in 11 races
- 424—Joey Logano: Logano has six top 10s on the campaign
- 405—Chase Elliot: Seven top 10s for Elliot
- 381—Martin Truex, Jr.: Truex finally got off the schneide and got his first win of the season Wednesday night in Martinsville… which somebody may have called
- 380—Brad Keselowski: Despite eight top 10s, I’m telling you to pass on Keselowski this Sunday in Miami
The top five racers in cup points this season through 11 races have produced a combined 21 top 5’s and eight victories.
Top Three in Laps Led
- 3430—Kevin Harvick:
- 3422—Joey Logano: Logano is a guy who is close to make a move; he has had some solid runs, but he has also had some late race issues that have cost him points and possibly a win or two.
- 3422—Chase Elliot: These three the only drivers with more than 400 points on the season
Dixie Vodka 400 Odds to Win
+400 Kevin Harvick
+500 Kyle Busch
+500 Martin Truex, Jr.
+800 Chase Elliott
+800 Brad Keselowski
+900 Ryan Blaney
+950 Denny Hamlin
+1100 Clint Bowyer
+2000 Jimmy Johnson
Top 10 Finish Dixie Vodka 400 Odds
+240 Austin Dillon
Call it a hunch, but Austin Dillon is my sleeper of the week for the NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400. Dillon has held his own in Miami, scoring an 8th place finish here last season and has not finished worse than 14th in all of his races here since 2015.
NASCAR Dixie 400 Top 10 Finish Sleeper Pick: Austin Dillon
Top 3 Finish Dixie Vodka 400 Odds
+140 Martin Truex, Jr
Thanks to a sweet riding second half of the race on Wednesday night, Truex Jr. was finally able to take home a much needed first win on the season. Truex Jr. has a nice history here with back-to-back second place finishes and he also took home the checkered in 2017. Truex Jr. stays hot as he continues to move up the points standings.
NASCAR Dixie 400 Top 3 Finish Prop Pick: Martin Truex, Jr.
NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Prop Bets
-120 Austin Dillon
-110 Christopher Bell
I’m all in on Austin at Homestead. Dillon can surprise as he continues to grow as a driver.
NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Matchup Pick: Dillon
-120 Joey Logano
-110 Brad Keselowski
As I mentioned earlier, this isn’t a great track for Keselowski. Logano leads Keselowski by 38 points in the cup standings and after Sunday, Joey will expand his points lead on the No. 2 car.
NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Matchup Pick: Logano
-140 Kyle Busch
+110 Chase Elliott
Busch has an interesting history here and it is his time to get his first win of the season.
NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Matchup Pick: Busch
Dixie Vodka 400 Race Team Winner
+160 Joe Gibbs Racing
+300 Team Penske
+325 Hendrick Motor Sports
+350 SH Racing
+2500 Any Other Team
I’m sending it in on Joe Gibbs Racing for Sunday. When you have the likes of Kyle Busch (due for a win), Martin Truex, Jr (just got his first win), Denny Hamlin (back-to-back champion at Daytona), and Erik Jones (finished 3rd here last year), it’s a hard prop bet to pass up, especially with plus money.
Harry’s Dixie Vodka 400 Race Team Prop Bet Pick: Joe Gibbs Racing
Dixie Vodka 400 Best Finisher in Group Prop Bet
+230 Joey Logano
+250 Denny Hamlin
+250 Brad Keselowski
+285 Dave Blaney
In case I have not gotten the point across, I’m tossing Keselowski in the trash this Sunday. In fact, I’m calling a wreck for Brad and saying he will not finish (if there was a prop for that, I would love to lay down a little coin). I just feel Logano is best fit in this lineup to finish higher.
Harry’s Dixie Vodka 400 Best Finisher Prop Bet Pick: Logano
Dixie Vodka 400 Odds Pick to Win and Top 3 Finishers
+500 and +140
Harry’s Dixie Vodka 400 Pick to Win and Finish Top Three
Kyle Busch +500 to Win, +140 to Finish Top 3
Harvick is the favorite here, but it is Kyle who will get it done in Miami. Busch has been close to getting his first victory of the season, but some unfortunate incidents have happened late in races, which have cost him dearly. Despite that, Busch has a wonderful history here with wins last year and also in 2015.
Happy racing everyone!!!