By: Harry Gagnon
Best NASCAR Prop Bets and O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Prop Bets
What: O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
When: Sunday, June 19th
NASCAR heads to the Lonestar state after an action-packed All-Star even in Bristol, TN where the racetrack was full of fans (30,000 during Corona=Full). It was an exciting million-dollar race where Chase Elliott came away with the checkered, but again, it was even better seeing fans at a sporting venue again. Plus, it was fantastic to watch Elliott mingle with diehard racing fans after the win (was wondering when the next time we would see that bond again).
Well, we are on to Texas Motor Speedway where I expect plenty of action. If you look at the last five NASCAR races, there have been plenty of ups and downs; in three of the last five races, there have been double-digit lap leaders (11, 13 and 13).
Harry’s Texas Sixed Warning for the WeeK
The No. 2 Car and Brad Keselowski
Despite being second in Cup Points with 583, Keselowski has had no success at all in Texas. In his last four races here, Keselowski has finished 39th, 36th, 12th, and 33rd.
NASCAR Stats to Pay Attention to in Texas
Drivers with 500+ Cup Points
536-Martin Truex, Jr
The eight drivers have 15 of the 17 wins this season on the circuit. Also, this group has produced 50 top 5’s this season.
Drivers with 400+ Laps Led
O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Best Prop Bets
Top Three Finisher Prop Bet
+250 Ryan Blaney
Blaney is fourth in cup points and I expect him to have a strong race here considering he recorded a 2nd and a 5th place finish in 2018.
+275 Joey Logano
Logano has finished in the top 5 the last two years at Texas Motor Speedway. He has one win and 10 top 10s in 23 career starts at this legendary track.
-125 Kevin Harvick
At 44 years of age, Kevin Harvick leads in cup points by 92 points and in laps led by 113.
Team of Race Winner Prop Bet
+180 Joe Gibbs Racing
+225 Stewart-Haas Racing
+400 Hendricks Motor Sports
+400 Team Penske
+2000 Anyone Else
Joe Gibbs Racing is usually the favorite for a reason, but at +225, Stewart-Haas Racing is excellent value. This is Kevin Harvick’s track to lose and the last time Stewart-Hass ran here, they swept the board with Harvick, Almirola, and Daniel Suarez finished 1-2-3.
O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Team of Race Winner Prop Bet: Stewart-Haas
O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Matchup Prop Bets
-120 Joey Logano over Brad Keslowski
Logano has 139 more lead laps than Keselowski after 17 events on the NASCAR circuit. In the last six races here, Joey Logano has six top 10’s.
-155 Kevin Harvick over Martin Truex, Jr.
In 34 starts at TMS, Harvick has 22 top 10’s and has led for 614 laps during that time frame. Harvick won here the last time they ran and led in laps that day with 119.
+105 Aric Almirola over Jimmy Johnson
I know Johnson has seven career victories here, but in recent races, he has been out of contention early. In three of Johnson’s last five races here he has finished 34th, 35th, and 27th.
+110 Matt Kenseth over Alex Bowman
Bowman has had major issue that began pretty much right after he won earlier this season. Matt Kenseth had a top three finish a couple weeks ago and has a more-than-average career at TMS. In 30 runs, Kenseth has two victories, 14 top 5’s (almost 50% of the time) and has led for 883 laps.
Harry’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Winner Bet
+300 Kevin Harvick
Taking “chalk” may not be your cup of tea but it can’t be denied that Harvick is the best driver this campaign and the best at this track. Since 2017, Harvick has eight wins on intermediate tracks. The only driver better than that is Martin Truex, Jr., who has 10. In the last six races here, Harvick also has the best laps lead percentage at 24.81%. In other words, Harvick leads one out of every four laps at Texas Motor Speedway. The next closest to that tremendous number has been Logano at 5.28% and Kurt Busch at 2.04%. That is a truly overwhelming statistic.
Harry’s Top 5 Finishers at O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
I’m sorry if this isn’t a flashy pick with taking the favorite, but sometimes you have to be in the right spot and this is one of those times. Stay safe everyone and enjoy the race on Sunday. Oh, and happy betting this weekend!