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Home » Harry’s Best NASCAR Prop Bets for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Harry Gagnon

Harry’s Best NASCAR Prop Bets for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

Mar 6, 2021 8:27 AM ET | By: content upload
4

By: Harry Gagnon 

Best NASCAR Prop Bets and O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Prop Bets

What: O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 

Where: Texas Motor Speedway 

When: Sunday, June 19th  

NASCAR heads to the Lonestar state after an action-packed All-Star even in Bristol, TN where the racetrack was full of fans (30,000 during Corona=Full). It was an exciting million-dollar race where Chase Elliott came away with the checkered, but again, it was even better seeing fans at a sporting venue again. Plus, it was fantastic to watch Elliott mingle with diehard racing fans after the win (was wondering when the next time we would see that bond again).  

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Player
Kevin Harvick
Denny Hamlin
Kyle Busch
Chase Elliott
Martin Truex Jr.
Ryan Blaney
Joey Logano
Brad Keselowski
Aric Almirola
Kurt Busch
Jimmie Johnson
Alex Bowman
Erik Jones
Matt DiBenedetto
William Byron
Clint Bowyer
Matt Kenseth
Christopher Bell
Tyler Reddick
Cole Custer
Austin Dillon
Ryan Newman
Ricky Stenhouse
Bubba Wallace
Chris Buescher
Garrett Smithley
John Hunter Nemechek
Ty Dillon
Ryan Preece
Reed Sorenson
Daniel Suarez
BJ McLeod
Michael McDowell
Corey LaJoie
Gray Gaulding
J. J. Yeley
Timmy Hill
Joey Gase
Quin Houff
Brennan Poole
+300 BET +300 BET +300 BET +325 BET +300 BET +280 BET +300 BET
+625 BET +600 BET +300 BET +500 BET +600 BET +650 BET +600 BET
+650 BET +650 BET +600 BET +600 BET +650 BET +650 BET +650 BET
+850 BET +800 BET +900 BET +950 BET +800 BET +1000 BET +800 BET
+900 BET +1000 BET +750 BET +700 BET +1000 BET +850 BET +1000 BET
+900 BET +900 BET +900 BET +900 BET +900 BET +1000 BET +900 BET
+1100 BET +1100 BET +1000 BET +1000 BET +1100 BET +1200 BET +1100 BET
+1200 BET +1300 BET +1000 BET +1000 BET +1300 BET +1200 BET +1300 BET
+2200 BET +2000 BET +2200 BET +1600 BET +2000 BET +2600 BET +2000 BET
+2500 BET +2500 BET +2500 BET +2500 BET +2500 BET +3100 BET +2500 BET
+2500 BET +2200 BET +2800 BET +2000 BET +2200 BET +3200 BET +2200 BET
+3300 BET +3000 BET +3300 BET +2500 BET +3000 BET +3900 BET +3000 BET
+3300 BET +2800 BET +3300 BET +2400 BET +2800 BET +3900 BET +2800 BET
+4000 BET +5000 BET +3300 BET +2600 BET +5000 BET +3900 BET +5000 BET
+4000 BET +4000 BET +4000 BET +3000 BET +4000 BET +4700 BET +4000 BET
+6000 BET +6000 BET +5000 BET +3500 BET +6000 BET +5500 BET +6000 BET
+7000 BET +5000 BET +10000 BET +7000 BET +5000 BET +13000 BET +5000 BET
+7000 BET +6600 BET +8000 BET +5000 BET +6600 BET +9000 BET +6600 BET
+8000 BET +8000 BET +8000 BET +5000 BET +8000 BET +9000 BET +8000 BET
+9000 BET +8000 BET +10000 BET +6000 BET +8000 BET +13000 BET +8000 BET
+12500 BET +12500 BET +10000 BET +5000 BET +12500 BET +13000 BET +12500 BET
+15000 BET +12500 BET +12500 BET +6000 BET +12500 BET +15000 BET +12500 BET
+20000 BET +15000 BET +12500 BET +7500 BET +15000 BET +15000 BET +15000 BET
+20000 BET +15000 BET BET +12500 BET +15000 BET BET +15000 BET
+25000 BET +30000 BET +20000 BET +10000 BET +30000 BET +20000 BET +30000 BET
+25000 BET BET BET BET BET +20000 BET BET
+30000 BET +2200 BET +50000 BET +20000 BET +35000 BET +20000 BET +35000 BET
+40000 BET +50000 BET +10000 BET +30000 BET +50000 BET +20000 BET +50000 BET
+40000 BET +50000 BET BET +30000 BET +50000 BET +20000 BET +50000 BET
+40000 BET +150000 BET BET +100000 BET +150000 BET BET +150000 BET
+40000 BET +50000 BET BET +50000 BET +50000 BET +20000 BET +50000 BET
+40000 BET +150000 BET BET +100000 BET +150000 BET +20000 BET +150000 BET
+50000 BET +75000 BET BET +25000 BET +75000 BET +20000 BET +75000 BET
+50000 BET +100000 BET BET +40000 BET +100000 BET +20000 BET +100000 BET
+50000 BET +150000 BET BET +100000 BET +150000 BET +20000 BET +150000 BET
+50000 BET +150000 BET BET +100000 BET +150000 BET +20000 BET +150000 BET
+50000 BET +150000 BET BET +100000 BET +150000 BET +20000 BET +150000 BET
+50000 BET +150000 BET BET +100000 BET +150000 BET +20000 BET +150000 BET
+50000 BET +150000 BET BET +100000 BET +150000 BET +20000 BET +150000 BET
+50000 BET +150000 BET BET +75000 BET +150000 BET +20000 BET +150000 BET

Well, we are on to Texas Motor Speedway where I expect plenty of action. If you look at the last five NASCAR races, there have been plenty of ups and downs; in three of the last five races, there have been double-digit lap leaders (11, 13 and 13).  

Harry’s Texas Sixed Warning for the WeeK 

The No. 2 Car and Brad Keselowski 

Despite being second in Cup Points with 583, Keselowski has had no success at all in Texas. In his last four races here, Keselowski has finished 39th, 36th, 12th, and 33rd. 

NASCAR Stats to Pay Attention to in Texas

Drivers with 500+ Cup Points 

675-Kevin Harvick 

583-Brad Keselowski 

575-Chase Elliott 

572-Ryan Blaney 

554-Joey Logano 

553-Denny Hamlin 

536-Martin Truex, Jr 

504-Aric Almirola 

The eight drivers have 15 of the 17 wins this season on the circuit. Also, this group has produced 50 top 5’s this season. 

Drivers with 400+ Laps Led 

651-Kevin Harvick 

538-Joey Logano 

455-Denny Hamlin 

451-Chase Elliott 

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Best Prop Bets

Top Three Finisher Prop Bet 

+250 Ryan Blaney 

Blaney is fourth in cup points and I expect him to have a strong race here considering he recorded a 2nd and a 5th place finish in 2018. 

+275 Joey Logano 

Logano has finished in the top 5 the last two years at Texas Motor Speedway. He has one win and 10 top 10s in 23 career starts at this legendary track. 

-125 Kevin Harvick 

At 44 years of age, Kevin Harvick leads in cup points by 92 points and in laps led by 113. 

Team of Race Winner Prop Bet 

+180 Joe Gibbs Racing 

+225 Stewart-Haas Racing 

+400 Hendricks Motor Sports 

+400 Team Penske 

+2000 Anyone Else 

Joe Gibbs Racing is usually the favorite for a reason, but at +225, Stewart-Haas Racing is excellent value. This is Kevin Harvick’s track to lose and the last time Stewart-Hass ran here, they swept the board with Harvick, Almirola, and Daniel Suarez finished 1-2-3. 

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Team of Race Winner Prop Bet: Stewart-Haas 

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Matchup Prop Bets

-120 Joey Logano over Brad Keslowski 

Logano has 139 more lead laps than Keselowski after 17 events on the NASCAR circuit. In the last six races here, Joey Logano has six top 10’s. 

-155 Kevin Harvick over Martin Truex, Jr. 

In 34 starts at TMS, Harvick has 22 top 10’s and has led for 614 laps during that time frame. Harvick won here the last time they ran and led in laps that day with 119. 

+105 Aric Almirola over Jimmy Johnson 

I know Johnson has seven career victories here, but in recent races, he has been out of contention early. In three of Johnson’s last five races here he has finished 34th, 35th, and 27th. 

+110 Matt Kenseth over Alex Bowman 

Bowman has had major issue that began pretty much right after he won earlier this season. Matt Kenseth had a top three finish a couple weeks ago and has a more-than-average career at TMS. In 30 runs, Kenseth has two victories, 14 top 5’s (almost 50% of the time) and has led for 883 laps. 

Harry’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Winner Bet

+300 Kevin Harvick 

Taking “chalk” may not be your cup of tea but it can’t be denied that Harvick is the best driver this campaign and the best at this track. Since 2017, Harvick has eight wins on intermediate tracks. The only driver better than that is Martin Truex, Jr., who has 10. In the last six races here, Harvick also has the best laps lead percentage at 24.81%. In other words, Harvick leads one out of every four laps at Texas Motor Speedway. The next closest to that tremendous number has been Logano at 5.28% and Kurt Busch at 2.04%. That is a truly overwhelming statistic. 

Harry’s Top 5 Finishers at O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 

5-Aric Almirola 

4-Matt Keseth 

3-Ryan Blaney 

2-Joey Logano 

1-Kevin Harvick 

I’m sorry if this isn’t a flashy pick with taking the favorite, but sometimes you have to be in the right spot and this is one of those times. Stay safe everyone and enjoy the race on Sunday. Oh, and happy betting this weekend! 

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