What: Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500
Where: Martinsville, Virginia
When: Wednesday, June 10th
We were all over the props and Kevin Harvick for Sunday’s race in Atlanta. If not for Kurt Busch finishing one position higher than Jimmy Johnson—who was ahead of Busch for 95% of the race (but who is counting?)—we would have hit every prop plus the winner of the race. Anyways, enough bragging because we have yet another mid-week race on Wednesday night from Martinsville.
This track is one of the most complex tracks on the circuit (smallest track on tour) and didn’t earn the nickname, “Half Mile of Mayhem” for nothing. Unlike most articles, I am going to take some time to explain a couple of plays to stay away from, but first let us take a look at the current NASCAR odds and Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 odds heading into the 11th race of the season.
Odds to Win Blue-emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 and NASCAR Stats
Odds to Win Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500:
+450 Kyle Busch
+600 Brad Keselowski
+600 Martin Truex, Jr
+750 Chase Elliott
+900 Denny Hamlin
+900 Joey Logano
+950 Kevin Harvick
+1100 Ryan Blaney
+2000 Alex Bowman
+2000 Clint Bowyer
+2000 Kurt Busch
+2000 Jimmy Johnson
Top 3 in Laps Led & Points Leaders:
Laps Led
1st (542) Kevin Harvick
Harvick dominated the Atlanta track as he usually does. In the last six races, covering 1950 total laps at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Harvick has now led for 916 of the possible 1,950 laps. Also, his dominance is not just confined to Atlanta; he now has nine Top 10s this season whereas the next closes competitor has seven.
2nd (394) Chase Elliott
Despite having the pole last week, Elliott just could not really get running and finished a disappointing 8th. In March in Martinsville last year he finished 2nd behind Brad Keselowski but had no luck in October and came in 36th.
3rd (369) Alex Bowman
Bowman is really good when he is on, but lately, he has had a tough go of it. He is third in laps led but through 10 races he has only two top 10 races.
NASCAR Point Leaders:
1st (421) Kevin Harvick
Harvick has six top 5 finishes. He also leads the circuit with a best average finish of 5.5 (the next closest is Brad Keselowski at 9.4).
2nd (365) Chase Elliott
Elliott also has six top 5 finishes this season
3rd (363) Joey Logano
His two wins are his only two top 5 finishes this campaign
Possible Stage 1 Winners and Prop Bets at the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500
+600 Martin Truex
+600 Brad Keselowski
+650 Ryan Blaney
All three are fantastic choices especially since both Truex and Keselowski have great history at Martinsville. I have a hunch that Blaney (four top 5’s) is going to have a good go of it as he has been running well again since Charlotte. It’s going to be close, but I’ll take the winner of the last race at Martinsville.
Harry’s Pick to Win Stage 1 of the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500: Martin Truex
Winning Car Number Prop at Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500:
+105 Over 16.5
-135 Under 16.5
The over and plus money seems the play to me in this situation. Truex (19) is overdue for a victory as is the number 18 car of Kyle Busch. Joey Logano (22) hasn’t been running the way he was last year, and yes, while Alex Bowman (88) has been in a rut of late as well, I still think these four talented racers all could use a pick-me-up with a win on Wednesday.
Harry’s Winning Car Number Prop Bet Pick: +105 Over 16.5
Top 3 Finish NASCAR Odds:
+120 Kyle Busch
Since 2016, Busch has recorded two wins here and a total of five top 3 finishes. Busch has been close all season and has a total of six top 5 finishes.
+160 Brad Keselowski
Keselowski has two victories so far on the schedule and—in his last eight races here—he has seven top 5’s (including two wins). In March of 2019 at Martinsville, he won while leading for 446 of a possible 500 laps.
Worst NASCAR Play at Martinsville; Don’t Play Harvick?
That’s right, you are reading that correct. After loving Harvick in Atlanta, the play is not to play him on Wednesday night. Harvick doesn’t like small tracks and to prove my point, the lap leader this year on the circuit (542 laps, 146 more than second place Chase Elliott), has not led a single lap at Martinsville since April 3, 2016. Even when he is leading at Martinsville, it still might not mean anything as Harvick led for 72 laps that day and still finished a disappointing 17th.
Winner of NASCAR Race
Truex does not have a win this season but is still in the top 5 in cup points. In four of his last five races here, he has finished in at least fourth place and is also the defending champion. On that winning day in October, Truex led for an astonishing 464 laps.
Harry’s Pick to Win Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500: Martin Truex
Harry’s Top 5 Finish
5-Clint Bowyer
4-Joey Logano
3-Brad Keselowski
2-Kyle Busch
1-Martin Truex, Jr.
