AFC Championship Best Bet Over/Under: Where’s the Defense?
AFC Championship Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs ——> Click here for the full preview game
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The Tennessee Titans defense has been on fire so far in the playoffs, holding the Patriots and Ravens to just 25 total points combined, but in Kansas City this will be a different story. Taking the under when the Chiefs are involved is usually never a smart play, especially after what we saw last week versus the Houston Texans and even more so when they play the AFC South.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes broke all sorts of records last week and tied a record with four touchdown passes in one quarter in the playoffs. Doug Williams of the Redskins is the only other quarterback to achieve that feat. The game against the Texans last week finished at 82 points and in the other games this season against the AFC South, three of the four went way over as well. When the Texans actually beat Kansas City earlier this year there were 55 points scored in that game. In the season opener against Jacksonville, the two teams combined for 66 points and in the earlier meeting against the Titans in Nashville, the scoreboard operator got plenty of work as 67 points found their way up on the scoreboard.
In that game, Titans running back Derrick Henry (career 7.3 yards per carry average vs KC) had a huge day with 188 yards on the ground and although Patrick Mahomes was coming back from a knee injury, he had 446 yards passing and three touchdowns. Last season in the AFC Championship at Arrowhead, the Chiefs and Patriots racked up 68 points; I find it hard to believe the Titans defense can shutdown the Chiefs offense like they did against New England and Baltimore. The numbers the Chiefs put up last week were staggering: Mahomes had five passing touchdowns and tight end Travis Kelce had an all-time playoff game going for 134 yards on 10 catches and three touchdowns (with all three TDs coming in a seven-minute span). Tennessee will stay close because the Chiefs run defense isn’t great and head coach Andy Reid’s track record in championship games is far from stunning, but overall the Chiefs offense will be too much for the Titans to match, which means plenty of points. Take the OVER.
31 Kansas City Chiefs
27 Tennessee Titans
Harry GagnonExpert Writer
Harry Gagnon spent 14 years as a Vegas Sportsbook Supervisor and holds a Communications degree from SUNY-Oswego. You might know him better as part of the Degenerate Trifecta on the award nominated betting podcast “Against All odds with Cousin Sal” on the Ringer Podcast Network. Feel free to find him on Twitter (@AAOHarry) and tweet him a message if you want to talk casinos, sports, or just shoot the breeze about betting in general cause, hey, that’s what Twitter is for, right?