Super Bowl Best Bet Over/Under: Where’s the Defense?
The Game:
Super Bowl LIV: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida
The Play:
Super Bowl Over/Under: 54
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I’m going to start with this; taking an under in a playoff game that involves Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes isn’t the smartest of decisions. After what we have seen in the past two weeks against Houston
(82 total points scored in the game) and Tennessee (59 total points), only a fool would take the under. The Chiefs scored the second-most points in the AFC behind Baltimore while the San Francisco 49ers led the NFC, scoring 21 more points than second-place New Orleans and 100 more points than the Green Bay Packers.
So while both teams have the ability to explode on offense put points up on the board, they do so in different ways; Kansas City relies on their quarterback to get the offensive attack rolling, meanwhile, the Niners’ rushing game gets top billing. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes set numerous offensive records in the Divisional Round against the Texans; becoming just the second quarterback to throw four touchdown passes a quarter (with three of those going to Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce in a span lasting fewer than eight minutes). The Niners though can apparently take any of their running backs and turn them into stars for the week. In the NFC Championship game, Raheem Mostert ripped through the Green Bay defense line, going for 220 yards on the ground and four scores.
Chiefs games also have a solid history scoring points against playoff teams; in the eight games against playoff teams this season, Chiefs games went over 55 points on six of the eight occasions. But I have one last stat for you: both the Niners and the Chiefs have scored 30+ points themselves nine times and both teams put up 40+ points on three separate occasions. Also, if you think it isn’t looking good in terms of points scored as the game continues, don’t forget last year in the AFC Championship game between the Pats and these same Chiefs. In that one, there were only 24 points scored combined heading into the fourth quarter and then both teams went bananas, combining for 46 points in the final quarter and overtime. This should be a fun, exciting game between two solid teams and honestly, who wants to see an under game with Patrick Mahomes involved in it? Do the right thing and take the OVER.
The Prediction:
Take the OVER
Bonus Tip: Take the OVER up to 64 Points
Harry Gagnon spent 14 years as a Vegas Sportsbook Supervisor and holds a Communications degree from SUNY-Oswego. You might know him better as part of the Degenerate Trifecta on the award-nominated betting podcast “Against All odds with Cousin Sal” on The Ringer Podcast Network. Feel free to find him on Twitter (@AAOHarry) and tweet him a message if you want to talk casinos, sports, or just shoot the breeze about betting in general cause, hey, that’s what Twitter is for, right?
