By: Field Level Media
PGA Tour Odds and The Tour Championship Betting Preview
Dustin Johnson is the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world, leads the FedEx Cup standings entering the Tour Championship and has reached the season-ending event for a tour-leading 12 consecutive years.
He’s also a major champion who has won two events since the Tour’s restart in mid-June to go with a pair of runner-up finishes.
Yes, the lack of a FedEx Cup title is a glaring omission from the Hall of Fame resume Johnson has added to with a win and a dramatic sudden-death playoff loss to Jon Rahm over the past two weeks.
Johnson will have a significant advantage in trying to check off that box this week. It comes in the form of a two-stroke advantage over Rahm when he tees off at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta on Friday.
Beginning the tournament at 10 under par is the head start Johnson was awarded by earning the top seed entering the weighted start to the Tour Championship. Rahm will begin at 8 under, followed by Justin Thomas at 7 under.
It is the first time the top three players in the FedEx Cup standings entering the Tour Championship have mirrored the top three in the official world golf rankings.
Johnson was a +188 favorite midweek at sportsbooks including William Hill and PlaySugarHouse and had even shorter odds at +160 at BetAmerica.
Johnson has several advantages this week in addition to that two-shot cushion.
The Tour Championship Odds for the Rest of the Top 10
While the 30-player field is comprised of the best on tour this season, he has to beat only 29 other players. And only four of those 29 players will begin the tournament within five shots of Johnson.
That includes Rahm, who is coming off a victory at the BMW Championship that vaulted him from No. 9 to No. 2 in the FedEx Cup standings. The Spaniard was being offered at +275 by BetAmerica and PlaySugarHouse and +300 at William Hill.
Rahm also won the Memorial, tied for 13th at the PGA Championship and tied for sixth at The Northern Trust, so he arrives at East Lake in excellent form as well.
The same can’t be said for Thomas, who has struggled since winning the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational last month. He followed that with a tie for 37th, a tie for 49th and a tie for 25th in his past three starts.
Thomas is playing with Jim “Bones” Mackay on his bag with regular caddie Jimmy Johnson recovering from an illness. Mackay was Phil Mickelson’s long-time caddie and is highly respected, but it is a significant change for Thomas to cope with while trying to chase his second FedEx Cup title (2017).
Thomas is still the third betting favorite at most books, including being offered at +500 by PlaySugarHouse and +550 by BetAmerica and William Hill.
Rory McIlroy (+2200 at all three books) is trying to become the first player to win three FedEx Cups, and only he and Johnson have won five career playoff events. However, McIlroy has a large hill to climb — nine players to pass before he gets to Johnson, who will begin the tournament seven shots ahead of the Northern Irishman.
Webb Simpson quietly poses a more significant risk.
He was the only one of the top players to skip a playoff event, bowing out of the BMW to rest ahead of the Tour Championship. Simpson only fell one spot to No. 4 and will start at 6 under this week.
Simpson has a pair of wins and leads the Tour in scoring average (68.87) and putting average (1.690) this season. He also has a tie for third and a tie for sixth in his past two starts, leading him to being offered at +900 by PlaySugarHouse and +1100 by William Hill.
A Young Guns’ Tour Championship Odds to Wreck the Field
Collin Morikawa showed the ability to rally when he caught and passed Johnson in the final round to win the PGA Championship. He’ll begin his first Tour Championship within striking distance at 5 under and offers intriguing odds at +2000 by William Hill and +2200 at PlaySugarHouse midweek.
It will be difficult, although certainly not impossible, for other players to emerge from the pack and be in contention on Monday as the season concludes on Labor Day.
To account for the majority of the FedEx Cup champion wagers to be on the top five players in the standings, books are offering a creative prop market.
William Hill is among those offering odds on the tournament winner without FedEx Cup strokes.
Johnson (+500), Rahm (+550) and Thomas (+1000) still had the shortest odds. However, McIlroy was also +1000, followed by Xander Schauffele (+1200), Simpson and Bryson DeChambeau at +1400 and Morikawa, Daniel Berger and Tony Finau at +1800. BetAmerica is offering similar odds, with McIlroy and Thomas at +900, Schauffele at +1100 and Simpson at +1200.
That allows for bettors to dive deeper into history and trends.
Schauffele doesn’t have a win this year and is unlikely to threaten for his first FedEx Cup title as he starts the event at 3 under. He does, however, have a win at East Lake in 2017 when Thomas took home the Cup before the weighted start was introduced. And Schauffele has not finished outside the top 25 in his past seven starts.
And that doesn’t hold a candle to the run Berger has been on. Starting at 4 under this week, Berger wound up tied for 25th last week, only his second finish outside the top 15 in his past 10 starts — a run that includes a win and six other top-10s.
FanDuel is offering another twist on outright-winner bets — one that doesn’t include the top three.
Simpson leads that prop at +380, followed by Morikawa (+700), DeChambeau (+850), McIlroy (+850) and Berger (+900).
BetAmerica is also offering full-field props including whether there will be a hole-in-one during the tournament (No -1000, Yes +550)
Unfortunately, there is no fun to be had with Tiger Woods props this week. The 44-year-old failed to qualify for the event he won in 2018 and is preparing for the U.S. Open.
FEDEX CUP STARTING STROKES
1. Dustin Johnson, -10
2. Jon Rahm, -8
3. Justin Thomas, -7
4. Webb Simpson, -6
5. Collin Morikawa, -5
6. Daniel Berger, -4
7. Harris English, -4
8. Bryson DeChambeau, -4
9. Sungjae Im, -4
10. Hideki Matsuyama, -4
11. Brendon Todd, -3
12. Rory McIlroy, -3
13. Patrick Reed, -3
14. Xander Schauffele, -3
15. Sebastian Munoz, -3
16. Lanto Griffin, -2
17. Scottie Scheffler, -2
18. Joaquin Niemann, -2
19. Tyrrell Hatton, -2
20. Tony Finau, -2
21. Kevin Kisner, -1
22. Abraham Ancer, -1
23. Ryan Palmer, -1
24. Kevin Na, -1
25. Marc Leishman, -1
26. Cameron Smith, Even
27. Viktor Hovland, Even
28. Mackenzie Hughes, Even
29. Cameron Champ, Even
30. Billy Horschel, Even
–Field Level Media
