By: Harry Gagnon
PGA Prop Bets: Harry’s Workday Charity Open Best Bets
What: Workday Charity Open
Where: Muirfield Golf Club
When: July 9-12
After a remarkable display of golf over the weekend, Bryson DeChambeau has elected to take this week off in Ohio after his victory in Detroit. DeChambeau has been on a tear and it will be too bad not to see him in this field especially since he won on this course in 2018.
This will be an interesting week considering the PGA is taking a page out of NASCAR’s playbook on scheduling because of Covid-19. Two weeks back, NASCAR ran back-to-back races (and back-to-back weekend races) in the Poconos to reduce on travel during this pandemic. For both this and next week, the PGA will have tournaments at Muirfield Golf Club (just outside Columbus).
This will mark the first Workday Charity Open and you can expect scores to be a bit better this week than the following, as workers will make the course tighter for The Memorial. The purse for this tournament is $6.2 million and the following week The Memorial’s will be a third higher at $9.3 million. With all that being said, here are my PGA plays of the week for a somewhat lighter field of players.
PGA Tour Prop Bets: Workday Charity Open Prop Bets
Total Final Score
-115 Over 268.5 Strokes
-115 Under 268.5 Strokes
As I mentioned earlier, this course should play a bit easier than it will the following week. I expect players to basically average five under a day, and it shouldn’t be overly tough considering how these guys have been “lights out” for weeks now. At the Memorial last year, Patrick Cantlay won with a final total of 269. Total par here is 288 so five under a day will do it.
Harry’s Workday Charity Open Prop Bets: Under 268.5 Strokes
Workday Charity Open Odds:
+1100 Justin Thomas
+1200 Jon Rahm
+1500 Brooks Koepka
+1500 Patrick Cantlay
+1600 Hideki Matsuyama
Top Florida State Seminole Player
-500 Brooks Koepka
+450 Chase Seiffert
+750 Hank Lebioda
This should be a “no-doubter” but it will be noteworthy to see how Koepka plays after withdrawing a week ago because of the pandemic. Seiffert shot a second round 75 last week in Detroit and missed the cut by two strokes.
Harry’s Top Florida State Seminole Player Prop Pick: Koepka
Top Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Player
-160 Matt Kuchar
+225 Cameron Tringale
+450 Stewart Cink
Since 2012, Kuchar has finished 26th or better at every tournament at Muirfield except for one. In 2013 “Kuch” won here by two strokes over Kevin Chappell and five over Kyle Stanley.
Harry’s Top Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Player Prop Bet Pick: Kuchar
Workday Charity Open To Make the Cut Parlays and Matchup Prop Bets
To Make the Cut Parlay (Pay +350)
-550 Justin Thomas
Finished 4th in 2017 here and will bounce back from a surprising missed cut in Detroit.
-500 Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay is the defending champion at Muirfield and finished fourth in 2018.
-400 Hideki Matsuyama
“Mats” has back-to-back top 15 finishes here and played well last week (-13), finishing tied for 21st at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
-300 Rickie Fowler
It was good to see Fowler have a solid tournament after two straight missed cuts.
-300 Justin Rose
Rose finished second on this course in 2015, sixth in 2018, and 13th last season.
-250 Patrick Reed
I expect a much better performance from Reed than he did a week ago when he missed one of very few cuts for him in the 2019-20 season.
Workday Charity Open Matchup Prop Bets:
-150 Kevin Streelman
+120 Rory Sabbatini
I was high on the South African native a week ago but he disappointed plenty as he missed the cut. Streelman, on the other hand, has been playing well and recorded a top 5 finish here a season ago.
Harry’s PGA Matchup Pick: Streelman
-115 Rickie Fowler
-115 Viktor Hovland
Both these guys finished 12th last week, however Hovland has been much more productive this season in general. At this point you cannot even call Fowler the best Oklahoma State Cowboy on tour anymore. That title is currently for Matthew Wolff (who finished 2nd last week in Detroit) or Hovland himself. I do have Fowler in my cut parlay but I’m going with the better golfer at this time in the pure head-to-head matchup.
Harry’s PGA Matchup Pick: Hovland
Some Longshots Prop Bets to Consider for the Workday Charity Open Odds
+5000 Collin Morikawa to Lead After Round 1
+175 Top 20 Finish Morikawa
Morikawa just had his consecutive cuts made streak to start a career snapped and could come back extremely determined. If so, I feel we can expect a brilliant performance early in the tournament
+150 Top 40 Finish Emiliano Grillo
Grillo finished 39th last week and historically has played well at the course. Grillo finished 9th here last year, 11th in 2016, and 23rd in 2018.
Top 10 Finish
+335 Justin Rose
Rose has a great history here as well and in 2015 lost in a playoff to David Lingmerth.
Harry’s Go-To Golfer of the Week
+125 Top 30
+200 Top 20
+400 Top 10
+750 Top 5
+4000 To Win It
Leishman has been on his game of late and has had excellent tournaments in the past here: Leishman finished 5th last year and 15th in 2017 while in ’16 he finished in a tie for 11th with Grillo and had another top 5 finish in ’15. Look out for the lanky Australian in Dublin, Ohio.