By: Cam McCann
PGA Prop Bets: Cam McCann’s Northern Trust Open Prop Bets
The first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs begins this week at TPC Boston for the Northern Trust Open. It’s a smaller field for this event, with 125 players and the top-65 and ties making the cut. Something to take note of for the playoff format is that only the top-70 in FedEx Cup standings will advance to the next round of playoffs.
With it being a playoff event, the field is another stacked one. All of the top-10 golfers in the world are present, along with the most popular one; Tiger Woods will be making his third start since the restart, and we haven’t seen his odds this high in a long time as Tiger is currently being offered at +4500.
For course history, TPC Boston falls under the Dell Championship. This is the first year the PGA is using TPC Boston for the Northern Trust event after cutting down playoff events from four to three.
The course is a par-71, Arnold Palmer design and players will be able to go low here. With two drivable par-4s and some very reachable par-5s, the players will have their fair share of birdie and eagle opportunities. Winning scores from the last 10 years have ranged between 15 under and 22 under.
Looking at past winners at TPC Boston it is clear they will need to be successful off the tee. I’m slightly weighing distance more than accuracy to shorten some of the approach shots that look to be over 175 yards.
Successful players this week will, as always, need their approach game dialed in. Players with incredible long iron accuracy will be at an advantage with over half of the approach shots being over 175 yards.
I’m also looking at players that putt well on bentgrass greens, as well as lightning fast greens which TPC Boston is well known for.
Some players that have had a ton of success at TPC Boston are: Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Paul Casey, Gary Woodland, Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth with over 20 strokes gained at the course.
Let’s take a look at some of the bets I like:
Cam’s Northern Trust Open Matchup Prop Bets
Tournament Head to Head Matchups
Justin Thomas over Rory McIlroy (-122)
Both of these players have won at TPC Boston but one of these golfers is playing a lot better than the other. That would be Justin Thomas who has been the best ball striker since the restart, ranking first in approach, gaining seven more strokes than any other golfer.
His putting has been hit or miss but what’s scary about JT is that he still contends even if his putter is failing him. He won the WGC St. Jude three weeks ago while losing strokes putting.
He’s won at TPC Boston back in 2017 and he’s a big event guy, never finishing outside the top-20 in 5 Northern Trust playoff events.
Rory on the other hand, hasn’t been playing like his usual elite self. Since the restart he is ranked 70th in approach, 77th in putting and 75th in around the green. He’s been quoted saying playing without fans has been weird for him, feeling more like a casual round than a PGA event.
Harris English over Jordan Spieth (-143)
The odds are pretty juiced for this matchup but I don’t really understand why this matchup is being offered. Harris English has been one of the most consistent golfers since the restart and Spieth, well he’s struggling with his game to say the least.
Spieth has some decent finishes at TPC Boston but this isn’t the same golfer from a few years ago; he’s struggling off the tee, losing strokes in 8 of his last 10 events. Even his normally elite putting hasn’t been there for him lately. He popped with his putter in the first even back after the restart, but since then he’s lost strokes in 4/7 events, and the other three only gaining less than half a stroke.
I’m going to roll with Harris English here who has finished inside the top-23 in his last five events. He’s ranked 20th in approach, 22nd in around the green and 8th in putting since the restart.
Patrick Reed to win outright (+3000)
Captain America is a notorious big event player, gaining that nickname with his success at Ryder Cup matches. Reed is checking a lot of boxes for me this weekend. We’re getting him on his best putting surface where he’s ranked as the 7th best bentgrass putter. He’s also ranked 14th on lightning fast greens and 25th in putting since the restart.
He popped last weekend with his ball striking, gaining over four strokes in both off the tee and approach. When he gets his ball striking game going it usually sticks around for a few weeks.
He also has great success at TPC Boston, since his first two starts here where he played terribly and still didn’t miss the cut, he’s finished 4th, 5th, 6th and 35th. Reed likes playoff events, he’s won the Northern Trust twice, including last year. Along with three other finishes inside the top-25.
If his ball striking form continues from last weekend, he will be in contention on Sunday.
Cam’s Northern Trust Open Parlay of the Day: Make the Cut Parlay
Make the cut parlay +1136
Patrick Cantlay, Abraham Ancer, Harris English, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Sungjae Im, Gary Woodland all to make the cut
- Cantlay has made 19 cuts in a row, Ancer is at 15 straight.
- Harris English has been one of the most consistent golfers since restart.
- Phil has been playing great golf lately and has made the cut in 6/7 events at TPC Boston.
- Tiger is Tiger, he doesn’t play that often anymore but when he does, he competes. Six straight made cuts for Tiger.
- Spieth has been wildly inconsistent but he’s still making the weekend majority of the time. Also has good course history at TPC Boston.
- Sungjae is another consistent golfer who has struggled, but looks like he found his game last weekend.
- Gary Woodland has fantastic course history at TPC Boston, never missing a cut, finishing inside the top-29 in 5/6 starts, the only other was his first start here where he finished 41st.