By: Field Level Media
PGA Odds: Northern Trust Open Odds
Bryson DeChambeau overpowered TPC Boston the last time it played host to The Northern Trust in 2018.
That was before he added 20 pounds of bulk and even more swing speed.
DeChambeau also has a win among eight top-10s in his past 10 starts, so it’s not a big surprise that he’s the slight betting favorite at most sportsbooks heading into the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs.
This marks the second in a string of marquee events on the PGA Tour that began with the first major of the year two weeks ago at the PGA Championship.
DeChambeau is offered at +1000 by PlaySugarHouse and +1100 by BetMGM despite going up against a stacked field that includes a bevvy of golfers with more accomplished resumes. That is part of the reason DeChambeau was garnering a modest three percent of the total outright winner bets at DraftKings a day before teeing off.
The deep field includes Justin Thomas, who enters as the top seed and No. 2 player in the world who also happens to lead the Tour with three victories this season. Among them was the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational three weeks ago.
Thomas won at TPC Boston in 2017 as he marched to his first playoff title and is attempting to join Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy as the only players to capture multiple FedEx Cup championships. He’s +1200 at both sportsbooks.
The Battle for the No. 1 Spot and the Northern Trust Open Odds
Thomas briefly regained the No. 1 spot after his WGC victory, but that was quickly snatched back by Jon Rahm. The fiery Spaniard won at the Memorial and had three other top-10s in seven starts since the Tour resumed play in June.
Rahm also has a missed cut and was T37 at the PGA Championship, which is probably all that is standing between him and being the outright favorite this week. He’s still the co-third betting favorite with McIlroy at +1400 at both books.
McIlroy has not played anywhere near the level of the other three of late with one top-30 finish in his past six starts while sliding from the top spot to No. 3 in the world. He has struggled to put together four consecutive strong rounds but has far too much firepower to overlook.
McIlroy is also the reigning FedEx Cup champion and won the Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston as he raced to the FedEx Cup title in 2016.
Jason Day hasn’t won since 2018 but he might be one of the most intriguing plays entering this week.
The former No. 1 fell as low as No. 63 followed his fourth missed cut in six events in July, a stretch that also included a withdrawal as he dealt with persistent back issues. The Australian parted with his long-time swing coach and has found his groove with four consecutive top-10s entering this week.
Day has yet to find the winner’s podium in 2020 but is certainly trending in the right direction. He’s +1800 at PlaySugarHouse and +2000 at BetMGM. Bettors have taken notice of his recent form as well, with Day second among the entire field with seven percent of the handle and five percent of the total bets at DraftKings.
Former No. 1s Who Can Make a Splash in New England
Day’s moneyline odds at PlaySugarHouse and BetMGM are the same as Dustin Johnson, another former No. 1 who has been coping with back issues this summer. Johnson has been all over the map in his seven events since the restart, with a win at the Travelers and a T2 at the PGA Championship mixed in with a pair of missed cuts and a WD.
Johnson was the third-round leaders at the PGA Championship before being tracked down and passed on Sunday by Collin Morikawa. The young phenom has rocketed to No. 5 in the world with a pair of wins in his past four starts and narrowly missing out on another at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
This will be Morikawa’s first career playoff event but he has yet to seem phased by the biggest stages. He’s +2200 at both sportsbooks, while leading the way with eight percent of the handle and six percent of the total bets at DraftKings.
Xander Schauffele is also +2000 at BetMGM but has shorter odds at +1800 at PlaySugarHouse. The Californian has yet to win in 2020 but is another player who always seems to find the first page of the leaderboard in big events. He has five consecutive top-20s, including a T10 in his last start at Harding Park and a T6 the previous week at the WGC.
What about defending champion Patrick Reed?
Granted, Reed’s win came at Liberty National Golf Club in New Jersey, which alternates years with TPC Boston. Still, Reed enters with three top-15s in his past four starts and is +2200 at PlaySugarHouse and +2800 at BetMGM.
There is no shortage of firepower at TPC Boston this week. After all, it features the top 125 players in the standings this season, with only the top 70 after The Northern Trust advancing to the BMW Championship.
Keep an eye on one fan favorite who needs a strong week to reach the second leg of the playoffs.
Rickie Fowler enters the week at No. 87 in the standings as he continues to work his way through swing changes that have yet to produce consistent results. He has fallen to No. 33 in the world with four missed cuts in his past nine starts and is +6000 at PlaySugarHouse and +5500 at BetMGM.
Meanwhile, Woods will qualify for the BMW Championship. He may prefer to skip the event rather than play three consecutive weeks, but he’ll need an excellent showing at TPC Boston.
Woods will be making just his sixth start of the season and sits at No. 49 in the standings. He hasn’t displayed the form that would indicate being in contention on Sunday this week with a T40 and T37 in his only two events since the restart.
It comes as little surprise that Woods provides long odds at +4000 by both books, putting him among the likes of Paul Casey and Hideki Matsuyama.
–Field Level Media