By: Field Level Media
PGA Odds: BMW Championship Odds
Only seven players in the past six years have won back-to-back tournaments on the PGA Tour.
Oddsmakers liked Dustin Johnson’s ability to become the eighth even before one of the hottest players on Tour withdrew from this week’s BMW Championship.
Johnson is coming off a historic, 11-shot win at The Northern Trust, the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. The victory was his second in his past six starts and vaulted Johnson back to No. 1 in the world rankings.
He was immediately installed as the favorite for this week’s BMW Championship, an event Johnson has already won twice — albeit on different golf courses. The tournament will be played this year at Olympia Fields (Ill.) Country Club.
Johnson was already the pre tournament favorite at most sportsbooks. And his odds shortened even further after Webb Simpson withdrew on Tuesday to rest ahead of next week’s Tour Championship.
Simpson has a pair of victories this year and is coming off a tie for third and a tie for sixth the past two weeks that helped him rise to No. 3 in the FedEx Cup standings, permitting him to comfortably take the week off.
Johnson moved to +750 at PointsBet and +800 at BetMGM in the wake of the news. Spain’s Jon Rahm, who has held the No. 1 world ranking mantle twicethis summer, is next at +900 at both sportsbooks.
Being No. 1 in the world is great for the resume, but the No. 1 spot in the FedEx Cup rankings is the key for next week. The leader heading into East Lake in Atlanta will start the Tour Championship at 10 under par and with a two-stroke advantage.
That spot currently belongs to Johnson, who wrested it away from Thomas last week. Thomas is the defending champion and third betting favorite among outright winners at +1200 at PointsBet and BetMGM.
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Olympia Fields Country Club hasn’t played host to a PGA Tour event since the 2003 U.S. Open. A few of the 69 players in this week’s field were in the field then, but another five competed in the 2015 U.S. Amateur played at Olympia Fields.
That tournament was won by Bryson DeChambeau. The talk of the Tour after returning from hiatus 20 pounds heavier and openly working to overpower golf courses, DeChambeau has cooled off with a pair of missed cuts in four starts since winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
He is still being offered at +1300 by PointsBet and +1400 by BetMGM.
Another player whose odds shortened following Simpson’s withdrawal was Rory McIlroy.
Comfortably atop the world rankings when the Tour resumed play in mid-June, the Northern Irishman has one top-30 finish in seven events since. He has admitted to struggling to stay focusedfor 18 holes without the charge of having fans in attendance, but McIlroy isalso one of only two players with multiple FedEx Cup titles to his name.
That includes last year, when he won a Sunday showdown against Brooks Koepka at East Lake.
Nothing about McIlroy’s form would indicate he’s ready to contend this week. But keep in mind that he has had great success during the playoffs and McIlroy has often hit his stride as fall descends. McIlroy is +1600 at PointsBet and +1800 at BetMGM.
BMW Championship Odds for Tiger to Get Back on the Prowl
The other two-time FedEx champion?
That’d be one Mr. Tiger Woods.
To have an opportunity to contend for a third this year, Woods likely would need to finish at least in the top eight at Olympic Fields. He enters the week at No. 57, with only the top 30 after the BMW Championship advancing to East Lake.
That has again made the prop market around Woods particularly appealing. At +3300 at PointsBet and +4000 at BetMGM, he’s not among the top 10 favorites to win this week.
Woods is +650 at both books to secure the top five finish he might need to reach East Lake. He’s +300 to finish in the top 10and +110 at PointsBet and +140 at BetMGM to finish in the top 20.
PointsBet is also offering a matchup prop of Tiger Woods (+105) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-134), the latter the author of the Tour’s 12th sub-60 round in history just last week. Woods is also being offered in a group bet along with Norway’s Viktor Hovland, England’s Paul Casey, Tony Finau and Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama, where each player is being offered at +350 to win the group.
There is no cut in this week’s event, which makes it even more difficult for players to make significant leaps up the rankings without playing extremely well.
And the field is naturally loaded with players who have earned their way into the field.
Daniel Berger has quietly been in a zone that spanned the three-month hiatus. With three consecutive top-10s before the Tour was shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic, Berger won the first event after competition resumed and has three other top-10s among his past six starts.
It’s no surprise that Berger has risen from 152nd in the world in January to No. 13 and is among the outright winner favorites at +2000 at PointsBet and +2800 at PointsBet.
That puts him in line with Collin Morikawa. The second-year pro understandably missed the cut in his first event after his triumph at the PGA Championship. But that doesn’t overshadow the two wins and a runner-up finish — behind Berger — that he has in eight events since the restart.
PGA Odds for the Rest of the Field and Some Surprising Picks in the Field
A case can legitimately be made for any player in this week’s field.
There are those including Johnson, Thomas, McIlroy and Woods who have resumes chock full of playoff success. There are young guns such as Morikawa, Hovland, Scheffler and Matthew Wolff getting their first taste of the race for the FedEx Cup.
And there are a host of experienced veterans with past and recent success to keep bettors intrigued.
Oh, and there’s the most recent player to win back-to-back events on the PGA Tour.
That would be Brendon Todd, who accomplished the feat during the fall swing. He backed that up with several more solid events post-hiatus and even held a share of the lead after the first round of the PGA Championship.
Those looking to take a flier on a player with a bit longer odds might be enticed by the +10000 they can get on Todd at PointsBet (compared to +7000 at BetMGM midweek).
–Field Level Media