Eric Rosenthal’s NFL Week 12 Best Bets Against the Spread: Why the Winless Bengals Are a Win
We’re less than a week away from my favorite day of the year, Thanksgiving and the football that comes with it. We look to build off a successful Week 11 where we went 2-1 against the spread including the underdog Jets winning 34-17 outright over the Redskins.
Best Bet ATS of NFL Week 12 No. 1: Cincinnati Bengals +7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been involved in a giant distraction after the fight that led
to Myles Garrett hitting Mason Rudolph in the head with his own helmet. Garrett has accused Rudolph of using a racial slur against him, leading the focus to be off the field instead of on the field for Pittsburgh.
Nobody should be excited about betting on a winless Bengals team, especially with Ryan Finley at quarterback, which is why this line has been bet up way too high.
Despite being at home, I don’t expect the Bengals to put up even 20 points on offense, but a 20-14 loss would still give us the cover. Take Cincy +7 and watch a different game.
Best Bet ATS of NFL Week 12 No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles PK vs Seattle Seahawks
The Eagles let me down last week, losing 17-10 as 4-point home underdogs against the New England Patriots. Nelson Agholor dropped a potential game-tying touchdown in the final minute of the game which would have likely led to a cover, but sometimes things just don’t go your way.
It would be easy to get scared off the Eagles because they only put up 10 points at home in Week 11, but the New England Patriots have the 5th best defensive DVOA through 10 games in the history of the NFL. While others will think the Eagles offense is in shambles, I realize they just happened to face a daunting opponent that shuts down everyone they face outside of MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson.
Despite the Seahawks winning 8 of their 10 games and the Eagles being just 5-5, these two teams are relatively equal in strength from an advanced analytics view. Grab the Eagles as a pick-em in a must-win situation to save their season.
Bets Bet ATS the Spread of NFL Week 12: Detroit Lions -3.5 @ Washington Redskins
My favorite pick of Week 11 was against the Redskins and I’m excited for the opportunity to bet against them again. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford will miss another game with his back injury, giving us a matchup between Jeff Driskel and Dwayne Haskins. Driskel has been solid, but not spectacular in his two starts for the Lions this season, throwing for 478 yards, 3 touchdowns, and just 1 interception despite facing the tough defenses of the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys.
Dan Snyder’s Redskins happen to be bad at offense, defense, and special teams with their only win coming against the Miami Dolphins by 1 point back when Case Keenum was starting.
Now led by rookie Dwayne Haskins, Washington looks to me like the worst team in football. Teams have consistently destroyed the Lions defense by throwing the ball, but every time Haskins drops back to pass feels like a disaster waiting to happen.
Detroit will finally look like a capable defense causing multiple turnovers, while Jeff Driskel does just enough on offense for the Lions to beat the Redskins by 4 or more.